美国防务大学：中国全球进攻主义(英文原版)

China’sGlobalActivism:Strategy,Drivers,andToolsbyPhillipC.SaundersInstituteforNationalStrategicStudiesOccasionalPaper4NationalDefenseUniversityPressWashington,D.C.October2006Opinions,conclusions,andrecommendationsexpressedorimpliedwithinaresolelythoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheDefenseDepartmentoranyotheragencyoftheFederalGovernment.Clearedforpublicrelease;distributionunlimited.Portionsofthisworkmaybequotedorreprintedwithoutpermission,providedthatastandardsourcecreditlineisincluded.NDUPresswouldappreciateacourtesycopyofreprintsorreviews.Firstprinting,October2006NDUPresspublicationsaresoldbytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice.Fororderinginformation,call(202)512–1800orwritetotheSuperinten-dentofDocuments,U.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice,Washington,D.C.20402.ForGPOpublicationson-line,accesstheirWebsiteat::ContentsAcknowledgments...........................................................................viiSourcesandMethodology................................................................viiiExecutiveSummary..........................................................................1Introduction...................................................................................3GrandStrategy,EconomicDevelopment,andForeignPolicyPriorities....................................................................3DriversofChina’sIncreasingGlobalActivism........................................6ToolsforChineseGlobalInfluence.....................................................10DataonChineseRegionalPriorities....................................................18IsChina’sIncreasedGlobalActivismtheProductofaGlobalStrategy?.............................................................24OutlookandImplications.................................................................27Conclusion....................................................................................30Notes.............................................................................................30Appendix:RegionalDataAsia..............................................................................35TotalExportsDestinedforChinafromAsia—1993,1998,2003,2004...................36ChineseInfrastructureProjectsinAsia.............................................37PRCFDItoAsiaExcludingSARs..................................................38AsiaPercentofTotalPRCFDI.....................................................38Africa.............................................................................39TotalExportsDestinedforChinafromAfrica—1993,1998,2003,2004.................40ChineseInfrastructureProjectsinAfrica...........................................41PRCFDItoAfrica...............................................................42AfricaPercentofTotalPRCFDI...................................................42i OCCASIONAL PAPER 4LatinAmerica.....................................................................43TotalExportsDestinedforChinafromLatinAmerica—1993,1998,2003,2004..........44ChineseInfrastructureProjectsinLatinAmerica....................................45PRCFDItoLatinAmericaExcludingFDIHavens...................................46LatinAmericaPercentofTotalPRCFDI............................................46TheMiddleEast....................................................................47TotalExportsDestinedforChinafromMiddleEast—1993,1998,2003,2004............48ChineseInfrastructureProjectsintheMiddleEast...................................49PRCFDItoMiddleEast..........................................................50MiddleEastPercentofTotalPRCFDI..............................................50TheFormerSovietUnionandSouthAsia..............................................51TotalExportsDestinedforChinafromtheFormerSovietUnionandSouthAsia—1993,1998,2003,2004...........................................................52ChineseInfrastructureProjectsintheFormerSovietUnionandSouthAsia.............53PRCFDItotheFormerSovietUnionandSouthAsia.................................54FormerSovietUnionandSouthAsiaPercentofTotalPRCFDI........................54Europe............................................................................55TotalExportsDestinedforChinafromEurope—1993,1998,2003,2004................56PRCFDItoEurope..............................................................57EuropePercentofTotalPRCFDI..................................................57AbouttheAuthor................................................................................59 iiAcknowledgmentsMyanalysisforthisprojectdrawsheavilyuponawealthofdatacollectedbyateamofcontractorsandresearchassistantsovera6-monthperiod.Iwouldliketoacknowledgetheirspecificcontributions.DanielMellebyservedasresearchcoordinatorfortheproject.Heplayedacriticalroleinidentifyingdatasourcesandcollectionmethods,writingtheresearchprotocol