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:(200433)Logit,,,,,Beaver(1981):,,,,,,,:(1)Abde2Khalik(1973)(2)Chung(1993)(reserverecognitionaccounting),,,,,,FASBSFASNo169,,(3)(2005),;,/,,,,,,:,;,,,;,,,,,,DewatripontandMaskin(1995)DewatripontandTirole13(1994);,,,,(2005),2001200379%;,90%,;,,,,,(LiDavidDaokui,1992);,,,(2002),10%,38%,(29%)(9%),:H1:,;H2:;H3:()2001()2004()A,STPT,223445,,2001102220,2004121225,:,,,,,,;,,,CSMAR,,,WIND():PTYPE=11+e-Zt,,Zt=0+1SRVt+2GOVt+3PEIGUt+1t(1)SRVt=0+1SIZEt-1+2GROWTHt-1+3LEVt-1+4LIQt-1+5GOVt+6OWNERt+7INDDt+2t(2):1.PTYPE,PTYPE=1,,PTYPE=0,,(-/+/+/-/-)=0,,1;0,,0,,23(2003),,,(2006),,,,;,,,,,PTYPE=02.(1)SIZEt-1=maxln(ASSETt-1)-MDln(ASSETt-1)MDln(ASSETt-1),0,ASSET,MDASSETt-1,,,,(2)GROWTHt-1=maxSRZZt-1-MDSRZZt-1MDSRZZt-1,0,MDSRZZt-1(3)LEVt-1=minDEBTt-1-MDDEBTt-1MDDEBTt-1,0,MDDEBTt-1(4)LIQt-1=maxLXBZt-1-MDLXBZt-1MDLXBZt-1,0,MDLXBZt-1(2005),(5)GOV,,0,1,(6)OWNERt=ONERt-MDONERtMDONERt,MDONERt,(2005)(2005)(7)INDDt=OUTDIt-MDOUTDItMDOUTDIt,MDOUTDIt,(8)PEIGU,,1,0(9)SRV,(HadlockandJames,2002;NathalieDierkens,1991),SRV_v,,SRV_p,(AR)(),11tPr|t|()ASSETt-12110775201938523176071910886278190010001211113520194162317607191221424418801000112109289186762315503810886134153010001SRZZt-12215369%014441%74511240%-1510885%3135010011316070%216309%74511240%-1510885%31380100113110839%215559%6216007%-018708%315201000233tPr|t|DEBTt-171114%59186%3404173%15120%518401000189114%70134%3404173%15120%517201000152180%53129%80168%23154%25125010001LXBZt-1113217111938639514081-131616330115010001016245121081539514081-13161632317001000141364111155888118406-21670735130010001ONERt40153%39176%75100%0180%1815101000142169%43162%75100%6197%2319201000134191%74130%74130%0180%10180010001OUTDIt10142%3143%21111%0113%711901000915111%5104%21111%0113%81540100019105%3101%15113%0105%5183010004SRV_v11157%11102%102122%1133%11117701001113166%14167%102122%4178%12313201001511101%14101%42109%1133%90101010008SRV_p23130%22134%132190%2187%21111501001429101%28199%132190%5101%33210401002122187%23111%99102%2187%100118010007,89114%0162453161%,52180%41364131108%;,()1.(1)(OLS)(2SLS),OLS;2SLS,,2SLSOLS,1SRVt8,,8,(1)2,(8-21-1),(2SLS),,,;,(OLS)SRVt,SIZEt-1GROWTHt-1LEVt-1LIQt-1,GOVt,ONERtOUTDItSRV;SRVPTYPE,SRV2(1)OLS2SLS,34(1)(2)OLS43()680686,20002(1)logitLOGITWaldChi2SquarePrChiSqLOGITWaldChi2SquarePrChiSqSRV_v-101166433411353010420SRV_v()-2215587333381707310001GOV013217334416612010201013647333541153310001PEIGU012255513330012009011540213651011241Intercept012943113390012472115332333221076510001testChi2SquaredfPrChiSqChi2SquaredfPrChiSqLikelihoodRatioScoreWald121103123159105170333100011000110001156186157149135125333100011000110001:333,33,30101,0105,0110()3(1)LOGITWaldChi2SquarePrChiSqLOGITWaldChi2SquarePrChiSq12SRV_v-101166433411353010420SRV_p-18132533410357010445GOV01321733441661201020101315234311425010912PEIGU012255513330012009012293515280011807Intercept012943113390012472015304218453019161Adj_R24178%4101%:333,33,30101,0105,0110()4(2)TPr|t|TPr|t|12GOV01016833-61370106550100943-611310001ONER01000010137017106OUTDI-01026733-7186010612ASSET01001131171010731010009331175010836SRZZ01001534122010582010013334124010601DEBT-010059333-2136010014-010047333-213010001LXBZ01001731129010905010019332112010712Intercept0102775320104520102883332104010518Adj_R23116%4153%:333,33,30101,0105,0110()(1)SRVOLS,5%;(1)2SLSSRV,1%SRVOLS5%,;,,,(1)OLS2SLS53,(PEIGU),,,,H1SRV_v,SRV_p(1)OLS:,5%;10%(2)OLS,;,(GOV)(1)(2)10%,,H2Adj_R23%5%,0198%,,;,,5C(charactercapacitycapitalcollateralcondition);,,,2%5%,0148%(,2002);;;,,2.56,OLSlogit,10%;logit,,;,10%;logit,5%,;,,H35logit()LOGITWaldChi2SquarePrChiSqLOGITWaldChi2SquarePrChiSqSRV_v-15109443611537010821SRV_v()-2219907010009018411PEIGU010003013337013206011540010035016321Intercept519031010045013451515332333831013410001:333,33,30101,0105,0110()6logit()LOGITWaldChi2SquarePrChiSqLOGITWaldChi2SquarePrChiSqSRV_v-7169033411353010931SRV_v()-9215587333817073010542PEIGU010004411340013119013062110009012253Intercept-0100270122900124720100123333118010001:333,33,30101,0105,0110()63(2)(7)10%;1154%,Adj_R22191%,2186%,Adj_R24137%,,,,H37(2)()TPr|t|TPr|t|ONER0100001010501912101000010125016132OUTDI-0101563-6190010921-01035133-8169010500ASSET01012533114010515010092332117010376SRZZ01000933122010887010013334124010401DEBT-010011333-3116010005-010059333-613010001LXBZ010009311560108050101223341120104120102775321990109520103770104017518Adj_2191%4137%:333,33,30101,0105,0110()(),OLS2SLS,,,(VIF),GOV(1)(2)VIF31174102,VIF2Spearman(rs)tp,p01180108,t5%,d,,logit,,,,,:,,,,,,,,;,,3%5%,1%,73(1)1(2)2(2%5%)(0129%),,,.2005..:2535.,,.2003..,4:5162..1998..,10:7080.,.2005..,4:3641..2005..,5:19.,.2005..,5:7584..2003..,8:2835.,.2005..,5:4051.,.2003.:.,8:118..2000..:,.2005..:anempiricalin2vestigation.JournalofAccountingResearchVol111,No11:104138.BerglofandRoland.1998.SoftBudgetConstraintsandBankinginTransition.JournalofComparativeEconomics,Vol126,No11:1840.Bil