三次台湾海峡军事斗争决策研究

19501990,,,,,,,,,1954,(100871)195419551958199519961950,,,,,19951996,,,,,73:,,2003:MichaelD.Swaine,ChineseDecision2MakingRegardingTaiwan,19792000.InDavidM.Lampton(ed.),TheMakingofChineseForeignandSecurityPolicyintheEraofReform.Stanford:StanfordUniversityPress,2001;RobertS.Ross,TheStabilityofDeterrenceintheTaiwanStrait.TheNationalInterest,Fall2001;RobertRossS.Ross,NavigatingtheTaiwanStrait:Deterrence,EscalationDominance,andU.S.ChinaRelations.InternationalSecurity,vol.27,no.2(Fall2002);ThomasJ.Christensen,PosingProblemsWithoutCatchingUp:ChinasRiseandChallengesforU.S.SecurityPolicy.InternationalSecurity,vol.25,no.4(Spring2001);SuishengZhao(ed.),AcrosstheTaiwanStrait:MainlandChina,Taiwan,and19951996Crisis.NewYork:Routledge,1999:19541958,,2003;(19491976)(),,2003;:,20033;:,20032©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,19951996,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,8320045,:RobertL.Suettinger,BeyondTiananmen:ThePoliticsofU.S.ChinaRelation,19892000,D.C.:BrookingsInstitutePress,2003;::,,,2000©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1949,,,()194910,,:,;,,;19501951,50,,,,,,,1950625,,,,,19531,,,1953,,19543,7,,,,1954919551,,,,,;,19532,7161711293195322,U.S.StateDepartment,AmericanForeignPolicy:BasicDocument19501953.WashingtonD.C.:GovernmentPrintingOffice,1957,pp.6165:,,1998,32;:,19973,3:,189:,,1987,198166TheLastCampaigntoUnifyChina:TheCCPsUnmaterializedPlantoLiberateTaiwan,19491950.ChineseHistorians,vol.5,no.1,Spring,1992;,1950311,1,271:,1949122223,1,,1992,73;:,1950210,1,,1987,257©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1955,,195310,,,12,,1955,78714910,,,1956,,19571958,(),7,1958823,1958101958,,10,10,,,,1962,,,1972,1979,1981930,,,,(),,,,,2000,0420045:,3,,1991;,19781216,1978121719811011962:,20033(),858859;:1958,19941;329330:,32334445,19531222,()583©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,:,,,,,,,,,,19951996,,,,,1950,199519961989,,,1950,19541955,,,;,1952,,1953,,,,1953,,14(),582;,189192,1950426,1,210;,,1989,285286:2000,20001016,20001017;,2000221;20031126,,20031126,©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,195319547,7,6,,,,,,,,,723,727:(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2420045()405:,195477,6,333334:,RobertRoss:,,2000,175,1954727,()585:,,1954812,,,1990,84:1958,19941:,195477,6,,1999,333334,191192(19491976)(),,1997,405;4495©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,;,,1111,,,1130,,,,,19541955,,,(),,,,,,,1958,,90,,195819541955,19541955,,,,,,,(),,1958,734ThomasJ.Christensen,UsefulAdversaries:GrandStrategy,DomesticMobilization,andSinoAmericanConflict,19471958.Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress,1996,chapter6;ChenJian,MaosChinaandtheColdWar.ChapelHill:UniversityofNorthCarolinaPress,2001.pp.171186;:,::(19541971),,56433;:,266274,(,1986)7172;(,1998)583:50,,587:,,1992,180©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,1955195712,,1957,19563,,,19586,1954,,630,,,,,,,,,,,1958,,,,?,1958,1995199619891996,19951996,1996,,,,,1993;1993,;19941995,;,,,,:4420045,,,1998(),,2000,381;(),,2000,10971098;,1958630,2,,26262628;,,1958818,()857;:,,1995,7677©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1995,,,,,,,(),,,,,,?,19951996,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,:,54:,307308305306©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,(19541958),(195419551958),(195819951996),,,,,,,19541955:;,,,,19541955,,,,,,,,,,,,1954,,19552,,,314,,6420045(),421478479:,1954821;,195412114,533627:,38,195491,()412:,,1997,198;:,32;(),405;(),585©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,228,,,423,,1958,,,:,,,??195819541955,,,,1955,,,,19551957121958,1958,1958119,,,,,78,,7874:,232239;:,675823()(,1998)9399:,239ThomasJ.Christensen,UsefulAdversaries:GrandStrategy,DomesticMobilization,andSino2AmericanConflict,19471958.ChenJian,MaosChinaandtheColdWar.:,::(19541971),,5657433434;:,266274:,1955430,()474:,1955519,5,128:,1955314,5,51;(),478479©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,1958:,;,;,,1958,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,722,,73183,,,8420045195884,,1988,114342343()857861;333342,1958726,319320;,(,1993)368373;()859860(),858;:1958,19941;:,7677;,,2000,423424©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,1954,101958,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,19951996,,,,1995,,,,:;,,,,94:,307308;,1995523,1995525;,1995524,1995525;68(),199581;68,199581;,199569;?,1995618:,84:,1958102,,356;,1958105,()878,1959930,()855856:,1958102,,,1994,356;,1958105,()878?,20043©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,1995719963:,,,,;,,,,1995719963,,,,,50,,,,:,19963,?,??,,,,;,,,,,,,,,:0520045,,19963,199512(,1998)747748,199637;,199638:,308;(),199581;68,199581©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.SocialSciencesinChinaAbimonthlyNo.5September2004ABSTRACTS(1)MinbenandCivilRights:HistoricalFoundationofDiscourseonRightsinChinaXiaYong4Theauthoridentifiesandelaboratesthecomponentsofrightsandtheirevo