9.27 房产新政的效应研究

西藏大学硕士学位论文“9.27”房地产新政的运行效应研究姓名：王彬彬申请学位级别：硕士专业：行政管理指导教师：王谦20090601I20,20079.279.279.279.27IIIIIAbstractAsanimportanteconomicindustry,realeastateplaysanimportantroleinthedevelopmentofstateeconomy,itcouldnotonlybringgovernmentdirectlyfinancialincomeandpushthedevelopmentofindustriesconcernedbutalsoactsanimportantsocialroleastheimprovementofpeople'sluringconditionandexpansionofemployment.Meanwhile,realestateindustryisanindustrywhichneedslargeamoutofcapitolandlongperiodofinvestment.Thecharacteristicofitshighriskinvolvedwiththesecurityofstatefinanceandthestabledevelopmentofsocial.Andthus,itisthefinalgoaltoassurethedevelopmentofrealestateintheroadofsustaining,healthyandstable.Forthis,eachgovernmentintheworldkeepsonmainlystrenghtheningthemanagementofrealestateinthmeansofmacrocontrollingbesideslawandregulationsdependingonsituationinnatureateachperiod.Withtheendoftheruleofdistributionofpracticality'forhousingwhichhasstayedforcouplesofyearsafterthefoundationofstatesincetheunderwayofhousingreformatthebeginningofreformandopen,realestateindustryofchinafocusonthestructionofhousingtransferredguaduallyfromplantomarketlizationandcommercialization.After20years’development,china’srealestateindustrycontributedlotstotheimprovementofpeopleslivingcondition,lifequalityanddrivingofstateeconomy,andmuchproblemsoccurredaswellasthepracticalstatesituationsuchasthecharacteristicsofstate-ownedglebe,rarilationofglebe,numerouspopulationandbloomingdemand,thedevelopmentofChina’srealestateindustryisalwaysmarchingontheroadofunbalanceofsupplyanddemand,especiallyuptonowthedevelopmentofChina'srealestateindustrycomestoproblemsofunbalanceofhousingstructure.Thepriceofhousingexceedsmostpeople’spurchasingpowerandetc.whichhaveagreatimpactontherealeastateitselfandeventhestableandsustainingdevelopmentofsocial.Supposing‘9.27’publicpolicyasthecorevariablefactorinthedevelopmentofrealEstate.StartingwithlookingbacktheroadofthedevelopmentofChina'srealIVestateindustry,bytheresearchoftheeffectof‘9.27’publicpolicyonChina’srealestateindustry,thepapertriestoanalyzingtheplainproblemshappenedinthedevelopmentofChina’srealestatetoputforwardtosomesuggestionsofpublicpolicytoreachthegoalofsomevaluablesuggestionsofimprovingthequalityofmanagementofpublicpolicyandassuringthesustaining,stableandhealthydevelopmentofrea1estate.KeywordsPublicPolicy,RealEstateIndustry,CourseofDevelopment,EffectofPublicPolicy120033820043420%35%2005320065200620079708.9%0.710.0%17.6%20.32010%920.5%178%913.3%9.272007927(9.27)2001121,,,,20071211()9.279.279.279.279.2739.27:1)2)3)4)4)2040506070701)21(HommnurabianCode)52)1920192020301873;1897(1904)6(1929)(1940)2031951:(1963)(1971)Y.71968-1971(1968),(1971),(1971)1470()())80()70202070(synoptic)(anti-synoptic)synoptic8;(anti-synoptic)()6060(1968)1952(DwightWaldo)1953(RobertA.DahlandCharlesI.Lindblom)/209121949-19781949-19661966-19761976-1978203103)1979-1993(14)20708019868041994-20011994-1997(15)9051994();20901998()1998-2001111997915212001(MPA)52002-1620021112WhiteM.(I975),J.E.Richard(1982)WhieatonWilliamC.(1993)(1996)DennisJ.MckenzieRichardM.Bettes(1996)1949-1978197913(1996)(1999)(2000)(2001);(2003)(2003)((2005);1419.272341159.27239.279.27161PaulAppleby2(HaroldD.Lasswell)A.Kaplan3(TomasR.Dye)174(RobertEyestone)5(DavidEaston)()()()()()18()123(4)191234;;20:12342112341222()12322-1((bubble)(assetbubble)(speculativebubble)12241978303-11197819911978219921997199219971978199219982003200719781981199862004253199820021995200042003200720032005200610200620079.27197919911978199126:()1979-1981120150197919811981602418()1982-19861/319863()1986-198919861198811530()199019911990271990519199110172000199219971993199471843285%1993199734%19800.201.10--1.30199820021292199834567199920018220030%50%3011998-20036.82199717.620032221998GDP1997607%7.8%GDP132001199728.2199066.542001622.8310.9447.9%131.311454.46%(5.55%)500631754.6%7.2%819982000200119999613115736.6%19.8%20021-1119550-70199826802002661625.3%199719020028253100%200341835717.6%3292468.9%2003770%20017120029302090114689.8%24.9%1/4200341837545002003200720032003218455200368379915332003613(121)712112120038311818121121200320042004(3.2)3.2:2004REICO3420032004(3.3)3-3:2004REICO(3.4);3-42004:2004REICO2003200420033520042005200535352005200719781993200320053.136199320032005“”2003“”033-11993200320051199320031993200521993200320053199320033720054199320032005:5199319932003200520031993382003(1217)(45)20050410053:2004399.279.272200620079.27200781.533032007030506079.27200620079708.9%0.74010.0%17.6%0.32010%920.5%178%913.3%20079279.279.279.272007927200708140661()35%412390()20%9030%()40%1.150%1.11002010450%101.1425320079213939200870%39200890/7020073180519072008211281220CPI439.279.279.2707082007200720071113.5%2008511014/200720071017350/36%200839316/20071019.5%086172581320723.5%40%200608570440.61.59.27081583200717452%085100.8948%457%733.6222%200871-16164.63393.0758.12%20082008628.330.3%45.5%239.78427.824420065208664.6440223.120760-7508500009034580%9020079.2720084.11-234.7%1-67.6%1-11-5.9%1-51-220.2%1-11-2.7%1-6200720081-111.1205000100001500020000250003000