IBM 项目管理系列培训讲义7

October2004|ProjectManagement|WilhelmF.Neuhäuser©IBMCorporation2003Unit07–RiskFundamentalsProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation20032AgendaUnit7:RiskFundamentals
Objectives
Riskmanagement
Riskcharacteristics
Riskmanagementprocess
Riskidentification
Riskanalysis
Riskestimationapproaches
Riskquantificationandexpectedvalue
Riskprioritization
Riskmitigationstrategies
KeyMessages-Unit7ProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation20033ObjectivesAttheendofthismodule,youwill-
Knowthethreeitemsthatcharacterizeriskandthedifferencebetweenriskanduncertainty
Understandthecharacteristicsthatdistinguishrisk
KnowhowtheriskmanagementisdoneandwhodoesriskmanagementProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation20034RiskManagementAnapproachtomanagingthatisbasedonidentificationandmitigationofareasandeventsthathavethepotentialforcausingunwantedchangeintheprocessorproductorofferingProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation20035WhyEngageinRiskManagement?
ProtectCostScheduleSpecifications
Gaincompetitiveadvantagebyrecognizingopportunitiesbeforecompetitorsdo
Focusonbuildingtherightofferingthefirsttime
Preventsurprises
Preventmanagementbycrisis
Preventproblemsfromoccurring,oriftheydo,fromescalatingProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation20036RiskCharacteristics
Adefinableevent
Probabilityofoccurrence
Consequences(impact)ofoccurrenceRiskisalmostalwaysviewedashavingalossassociatedwithit.ProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation20037OverallRiskisaFunctionofitsComponentsHighprobabilityLargeimpactLowprobabilitynoimpactLowriskModerateriskHighriskProbabilityofLossMagnitudeofImpactTheEventProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation20038CharacteristicsthatDistinguishRisk
SituationalNotextbookanswerMustrelyonsounduseoftoolstodealwithrisk
InterdependentOneriskeventcanaffectothersQuantityofrisksmayaffectperceptions
MagnitudedependentRiskacceptabilityisdichotomous:thegreaterthepayoff,themoreriskisacceptableBreakpointmakesanypayoffunacceptableProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation20039CharacteristicsthatDistinguishRisk(continued)
ValuebasedPersonalvaluesaffectcompanyrisktakingCompanyvaluesaffectindividualchoices
TimebasedRiskisfuturephenomenononlyTimeaffectsriskperceptionRisksarereversibleProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200310WhatAffectsRiskPerception?Control(choice)
Onecanbeplacedatriskby-OneselfAnotherActsofnature(orthegovernment)ProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200311WhatAffectsRiskPerception?Informationavailable
Inadequate
Unfamiliar
Unreliable
UnpredictableProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200312WhatAffectsRiskPerception?(continued)Time
Thefurtherintothefuture,thegreaterthedegreeofuncertainty
Lackoftimetoidentifyriskandperformriskmanagement
Canwechangeouractionstodaytomakeabettersituationtomorrow?ProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200313WhenisRiskManagementDone?TotalLifeCycleIncreasingRiskAreaofhighestimpactofchangeOpportunityandriskuncertaintyAmountatstakeProductDevelopmentDevelopProductRequirementsandConceptsDevelopProductDefinitionandProjectPlanDevelopandVerifyProductQualifyandCertifyProductRamp-upandLaunchProductManageLifeCycleofProductTheoverallviewProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200314RiskPreferenceRiskAcceptabilityLevelofRiskHighHighLowRiskavoiderRisktaker(gambler)AveragepersonProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200315WhodoesRiskManagement?
Projectmanagerissuesrequestforriskassessmenttoprojectteammembers
Projectmanagementteamdevelopsriskassessmentreport
ProjectmanagementteammembersdevelopriskmanagementplansbasedonriskassessmentreportProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200316RiskManagementProcessAccordingtoPMI-
Riskmanagementplanning
Riskidentification
Qualitativeriskanalysis
Quantitativeriskanalysis
Riskresponseplanning
RiskmonitoringandcontrolRisk[management]doesnotdealwithfuturedecisions,butwithThefutureofpresentdecisions.-RobertCharette,1989ProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200317RiskManagementPlanningDecidinghowtoapproachandplantheriskmanagementactivitiesforaproject
Inputs-ProjectcharterRiskmanagementpoliciesStakeholderrisktoleranceTemplatesfortheorganization'sriskmanagementplanWBSProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200318RiskManagementPlanning(continued)RiskManagementPlan
Methodology
Rolesandresponsibilities
Budgeting
Timing
Scoringandinterpretation
Thresholds
Reportingformats
TrackingProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200319RiskIdentificationDeterminingwhichrisksmightaffecttheprojectanddocumentingtheircharacteristics
Inputs-RiskmanagementplanProjectplanningoutputsRiskcategoriesHistoricalinformation
OutputsRisksTriggersInputstootherprocessesProjectManagementUnit07|RiskFundamentals©IBMCorporation200320PracticalApproachforIdentifyingRisks
Usecomprehensiveprojectstructure(theWBS)andquestionnaires(i