农民工就业地选择决策的影响因素分析

35220113Vol.35No.2March201173PopulationResearch*【】LogitMNL2009。103．67%、。、、、。【】Logit【】。610074FactorsAffectingDecisiononEmploymentDestinationforRuralMigrantWorkersLiuJiaqiangWangChunruiLiuJiahanAbstractUsingdatafromasurveyconductedin2009coveringfourselectedareasinChinathispaperexaminespatternsandinfluencingfactorsforruralmigrantworkers＇choiceinemploymentdes-tinations．Thereareindividualfamilyandcommunitycharacteristicsthataresignificantlyassociatedwithemploymentdestinationsageskillsmechanizationoffamilyagriculturalproductionandnon－agriculturalincomeratioofthemigrantsanddevelopmentleveloftheirplaceoforiginhavesignificantnegativeimpactonselectingoutsideprovinceemployment．Economicfactorshaveadominantroleinselectingemploymentdestinations．Migrationnetworktransportationfacilitationandthehouseholdregistrationsystemarealsoamongtheimportantfactorsaffectingemploymentdestinations．Policyimplicationsarealsodiscussedinthepaper．KeywordsRuralMigrantWorkersEmploymentDestinationMultinationalLogitModelAuthorsLiuJiaqiangisProfessorCenterforWesternChinaEconomicResearchSouthwesternUniversityofFinanceandEconomicsWangChunruiisAssistantResearcherInstituteofRuralEco-nomicResearchHebeiAcademyofSocialScienceLiuJiahanisPhDCandidateCenterforWesternChinaEconomic[e-mail]*“211”211D3Y03。74351“”。①。90“”、“”2008“”、。“”“”、、。20092297820081．9%。1453320083．5%2010。。、、。。。、。、“”。22．1。。、、“”SimonH．1955。20042007。。。Todaro1969。———①2009200838．94%199018．71%。275、、、Schultz1961。。、、。StarkO．＆Tay-lorJ．E．19912002。、2009、200120062007。、2007、、3。、、2009。。2006Logit2007Logit。2．220099～12“”。60051380．31%412。、、。1128145、51、35131。。44。。4、、①40．29%、16．50%、26．46%、16．75%。63．83%36．17%19～3157．77%。①、。4。763548．06%9．76。①3～6141“”56．06%“”“、”11．17%32．77%。、、、60．44%、30．58%、7．03%1．94%30．10%57．28%12．62%、“”。。1Table1DescriptiveStatisticsofVariables=1=2=3=44122．1971．141=14120．6380．48141231．74010．9834129．7572．671=14120．6040．490412660．218476．203%4120．2590．211%4120．7050．227、4121．7890．6374125．0874．2714121．9000．7844121．5050．7134121．8250．6314124．3966．955=14050．3800．486=3。。、、、。。、、、、、、、、、、、1。①3691215。277。2．3“”、“”、“”“”。。。、1、2、3。。。4。Mc-Fadden1973。JijUij=zijβ+εij1i=12…nj=1234Uijijzijij、、εij。JijJjUij。jProbUij＞Uikk≠jk=12…J2Uij。εijj=1234。Yi=jijProbYi=j=ProbUij＞Uikk≠jk=1234=ezijβ∑Jj=1ezijβ3Logit。3β。HausmanandMcFadden1984MNLLogitindependenceofirrelevantalternativesIIA。IIAMNLLogitIIA。Hausman－HausmanHausmanχ238=35．232p0．5981IIAMNL。34=1、、2。78352LogitTable2MultinationalLogitProbabilityModelEstimationResultsofEmploymentDestinationforRuralWorkers=2mfx=3mfx=4mfx=1=1LnIinc．=1－0．000322－0．05060．02120．03790．05180．0371－0．0007470．00208－0．00367＊＊0．001640．002130．001760．004370．0141－0．009080．006830．009260．006800．005290．0354－0．0636*0．03690．04820．03850．01310．0544－0．0798＊＊＊0．02620．03340．02500．03980．04320．03630．08540．1120．0829－0．09960．277＊＊－0．201＊＊＊0．08260．1130．07610．0993＊＊－0．00168－0．183＊＊＊0．04040．05300．04380．1350．0128－0．0707*0．09810．08840．03890．0157＊＊＊－0．0225＊＊＊0．002660．003990．006590．00435－0．0837＊＊0．1030．02260．03850．06630．0491－0．101＊＊＊0．06930．08160．03810．06510．05060．00434－0．0160－0．0757*0．04330．06200．03950．02950．0249－0．103＊＊0．09920．09500．04010．0966＊＊－0．0990*0．02260．04390．05680．04000．158－0．003670．03290．1090．09020．0841－0．0104＊＊－0．00318－0．0003340．004270．004290．00287－0．102＊＊＊0．05810．103＊＊0．03410．04930．0407Observations405PseudoR20．1197IIAχ238=35．232p=0．5981＊＊＊、＊＊、*1%、5%、10%STATA10．0。mfx=dy/dxmfxy=Pr=1、y=Pr=1y=Pr=1x0、1mfx=Pr=1x=1－Pr=1x=0。279、。1、、、。103．67%。7．98%。－6．36%。。2。。2．77%－2．01%。。“、”7．07%～18．30%9．93%。1．57%2．25%。。①“”、“”8．37%9．10%。3。7．57%。、9．66%15．80%。1、1．04%0．32%。。－10．20%10．30%。。42009Logit1。。2①、、、。8035。、、。3。4。5。。、、、。。。20101“”、。“”“”。。、、、。、。。。。、、、、。“4050”、“”“”。。、。、、、、。。281、“”“”。。、、“、”。、、、。“”“”。/References1SimonH．1955．ABehavioralModelofRationalChoice．QuarterlyJournalofEconomics199～118．2．．2004491～101HeDaan．2004．BehaviouralEconomicManDegreesofRealizationofLimitedRationality．SocialSciencesinChina491～101．3．．2007629～32LiGuanghaiandChenTong．2007．StudyonFuzzyComprehensiveEvaluationofBehaviorDecisionMakingBasedonBoundedRationality．JournalofChinaUniversityofGeosciencesSocialSciencesEdition629～32．4Todaro．M．P．1969．AModelofMigrationandUrbanUnemploymentinLessDevelopedCountries．AmericanEconomicReview1105～133．5TheodoreW．Schultz．1961．InvestmentinHumanCapitalTheAmericanEconomicReview11～17．6．———．2009656～64BaiJiyang．2009．AnalysisoftheSpatialSelectionMechanismofMigrantsFromthePerspectiveofHumanCapitalandSocialCapital．JournalofSouthwestUniversityofScienceandTechnology656～64．7Stark0．andTaylorJ．E．1991．MigrationIncentivesMigrationTypesTheRoleofRelativePrivation．TheEconomicJournal4081163～1178．8．———．200241～7CaiFangandDuYang．2002．Dual－CauseMigrationandItsPolicyImplicationsTestingARelativePovertyHypothe-sis．ChineseJournalofPopulationScience41～7．9．．2001156～61DuanChengrong．2001．DeterminantsofMigrationDestinationofInter－ProvincialMigrants．PopulationResearch156－61．10．、．2006142～52ZhouHao．2006．CapitalFormsGovernmentalPoliciesandInter－ProvincialMigration．ChineseJournalofPopulationScience142－52．11．．2007542～51T