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基于线性回归的银行卡业务量因素分析摘要回归分析是一种应用广泛的统计分析方法，在金融、经济、医学等领域已被成功的应用。它用于分析事物之间的统计关系，侧重观察变量之间的数量变化规律，并通过回归方程的形式描述和反应这种关系，帮助人们准确的把握变量受其他一个或多个变量影响的程度，进而为预测提供科学依据。本文以银行卡为对象，以微观经济学中的商品需求理论为基础，运用计量经济学中的普通最小二乘法，针对商业银行中间业务中较为重要的银行卡业务需求问题，尝试运用线性回归的方法，具体对影响银行卡业务量的因素进行分析。以银行卡业务量为因变量，以银行卡受理环境的各种因素为自变量，建立银行卡业务影响的多自变量函数模型，考察银行卡的需求函数；同时，通过理论与实证分析，找出对银行卡业务需求影响的显著性因素，揭示银行卡业务需求的特征、银行卡业务发展趋势，为该业务拓展提供经营决策的实证基础。关键词：回归分析，受理环境，统计检验，银行卡AnalysisoftheBankCardBusinessFactorsBasedonLinearRegressionAuthor:ZhangWei-minTutor:GuoJing-meiAbstractRegressionanalysisisawidelyusedstatisticalanalysismethod.Ithasbeensuccessfullyusedinfinancial,economic,medicalandotherfields.Itisusedforstatisticalanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenthings,focusonthenumberofchangesofvariables,andthroughtheformaldescriptionandtherelationshipbetweentheregressionequation,tohelppeoplegrasptheothervariablesbyoneormorevariablesinfluencedegree,andprovidethescientificbasisforpredicting.Usingthemerchandisedemandtheoryasthebase,thispapertakesbankcardsastheobjectandtriestoanalyzethefactorsinfluencingthebankcardbusiness.BasingontheOrdinaryLeastSquares,thispaperanalyzesthedatawiththeregressionmethod.Thedependentvariableisbankcardbusinessandtheindependentfactorsincludetheamountoftheshopsengagedbyspecialarrangement,theamountofthesavingsoutlets,theamountoftheATMandtheamountofthePOS.ThenthispaperanalyzesthesevariablesusingSPSS,withtheanalysisoftheoryanddemonstration.Wecanfindouttheremarkablefactorswhichinfluencetheindependentvariable,sothatofferthepositivegroundworkofmanagementdecision-makingfordevelopingbankcardoperation.KeyWords:Regressionanalysis,Environment,Statisticaltest,Bankcard目录1绪论......................................................................................................................................11.1课题背景及意义.........................................................................................................11.2研究的思路与方法.....................................................................................................11.3论文构成及研究内容.................................................................................................22银行卡产业发展状况..........................................................................................................32.1我国银行卡业务发展现状.........................................................................................32.2我国银行卡受理环境现状.........................................................................................32.3银行卡业务量与受理环境的关联性.........................................................................43回归分析..............................................................................................................................53.1一元线性回归分析.....................................................................................................................................63.1.1一元线性回归分析的基本原理和方法.........................................................63.1.2决定系数.........................................................................................................63.2多元线性回归分析.....................................................................................................................................73.2.1多元回归模型与回归方程.............................................................................73.2.2多元回归方程的多重判定系数.....................................................................93.2.3多重共线性现象.............................................................................................93.3变量选择...................................................................................................................103.3.1变量的选择过程...........................................................................................103.3.2变量选择的方法...........................................................................................114回归分析的统计检验........................................................................................................134.1回归方程的显著性检验...........................................................................................134.1.1多元线性回归方程的显著性检验...................................................................................134.2回归系数的显著性检验.......................................................................................................................134.2.1一元线性回归系数的检验...........................................................................144.2.2多元线性回归系数的检验...........................................................................144.3残差分析...................................................................................................................154.3.1残差分析内容...............................................................................................154.3.2残差序列的独立性.......................................................................................164.4方差分析.......................................................................................................................................................174.4.1方差分析简介...........................................................................................