论二孩晚育政策软着陆的必要性与可行性

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1No.C20050102005-12No.C2005010200512302No.C2005010200512303120051,,2001,20034·«»19985ZengYi,JamesW.Vaupel,andWangZhenglian.1997.“AMultidimensionalModelforProjectingFamilyHouseholds--WithanIllustrativeNumericalApplication.”MathematicalPopulationStudies6:187-216.ZengYi,JamesW.VaupelandWangZhenglian1998.“HouseholdProjectionUsingConventionalDemographicData.”PopulationandDevelopmentReview,SupplementaryIssue:FrontiersofPopulationForecasting.Volume24:59-87.ZengYi,KennethC.Land,ZhenglianWang,andGuDanan.2006.U.S.FamilyHouseholdDynamicsandMomentum--ExtensionofProFamyMethodandApplication.ForthcominginPopulationResearchandPolicyReview.515,2003516tiTFR*i(t)tiri(t)tiTFRi(t)—1998TFRi(t)=TFR*i(t)1-ri(t)ri(t)1—2004117,200011991—200020032—Bongaarts,JohnandGriffithFeeney(1998)“OntheQuantumandTempoofFertility.”PopulationandDevelopmentReview,24(2):271-291.Zeng,YiandK.C.Land(2001).“ASensitivityAnalysisoftheBongaarts-FeeneyMethodforAdjustingBiasinObservedPeriodTotalFertilityRates.”Demography38(1):17-28.ZengYiandKennethC.Land(2002).“AdjustingPeriodTempoChanges–withanExtensionofRyder’sBasicTranslationEquation”.Demography,Vol.39,No.2,pp.269-285.6187%05101520253035404520002010202020302040205020602070208065+80+65+80+89GDP27%0123456789101120002010202020302040205020602070208010511200020022005124.726%6%B,27%292720051281220002015203020502080118.7114.2110.5106.4106105106105106105118.7114.2116.45111.95114.2109.7114.2109.7114.2109.7302003312000-208015-49422000-208020-5118-4922-5120-49()0(5020004030201002010202020302040205050)32134567891011121314200020102020203020402050206020702080%012345678910200020102020203020402050206020702080%33,51420102020203020402050206020702080()0.120.430.781.301.962.673.454.20(%)0-1410094.766.554.049.2039.433.629.615-3405.333.544.337.638.638.233.835-540001.713.221.521.223.855-64000000.86.67.515-6405.333.546.050.860.665.965.165-790000000.55.380+0000000065+0000000.55.71001001001001001001001001516171984198719844.551984-1987198719844.55198755.8%80701987198432.3%21.1%0.96-9%34198719844.5520102015-2020202520-3920053%6%11%200018199011.63.115-2035513637199720018020002002200519()3839,4231322.51211.5123/1.51.672.5/1.53820

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