决策树与影响图

a(,300072):,DecisionTreeandInfluenceDiagramZhanYuanruiHeJuan(TianjinUniversity,300072)AbstractThispapercomparesbetweendecisiontreeandinfluencediagramsintheirrepresentationalpropertiesandcomputationalpropertiesandexplainswiththebiddingofaninvestment.Keywordsdecisionanalysis;decisiontree;influencediagram1,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,2199744a19941230,79470059©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,10:D1:;Y1:?Y2:?Y3:;Y4:;Y5:;Y6:;D2:;Y7:;U:,,,,,312,(),,(),,,2zz=b+cbb1221bbbb1221bbxddx1dxdx4,,(3),,3:,,,:219974©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1)(4),,2)5xy,xy:5(a)xy,5(b)xyxyyx50.50.5yx0.40.60.40.640.60.40.30.7yx0.50.53????3),,,(6),5,,,,,,7,34©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.6?,7x,yz,yzx,78zyxzyxzyxv(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(y,z)v(x)v(x,y,z)v(x,y,z)v(x,y,z)v(x,y,z),:89,,,6Howard,,,10Shachter,,,:419974©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.109BADAABXVxDBDBAAAAxa(x)a(x)v(x,y,z)=a+r+sv(x,y,z)=a+r+sv(x,y,z)=a+r+sv(x,y,z)=a|r|sr(x,y)r(x,y)r(x,y)r(x,y)zyxs(y,z)s(y,z)s(y,z)s(y,z),,(),,,11(a)(b),xy,10(c)11(c)(b)(a)vyDDyxvvxyD()D,:(D),7,,,,,12;,(),,,,,54©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.12xyz,71213yxzz3x=x=z2y=z1xyz1x=0.250.500.2523511246YYYYYYYDDU,14,,(),,,,()14,15(a)15(b),,,16x=x1,x=x2,y,x=x3,()H,,,,():,,,7,,,,178y,zvx(xzv)vzyx918arsv,v6zsx,sxAr,sz(ys)yr(x,y),,,619974©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.0.450.550.450.5515(b)(a)14(b)(a)i?0.550.450.000.001.000.0040302010181716vsrayzxzyxv312xxx3Pr=(y|x)=?0.50.50.40.6yy1221yy,,,,;,;,?8,,,1920(19z),74©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.W2019WYX210.40.60.50.50.30.70.80.2yy21zzzz1122xx2211zzzz12yyxyyz,,,:21,21(a)(b)(c)?,,,,1,21(c),,(),,,(?),,(),,21(b)(a)(c)11FFSSS?FS0.90.1SF0.60.4SF(44)819974©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1BahlHC,RitzmanLPandGuptaJND.DeterminingLot-SizingandResourceRequirements:ARe2view,OperationalResearch,1987,35,(3):329-345.2Florianetal.DeterministicProductionPlanning:AlgorithmsandComplexity,ManagementScience,1980,(26)12-20.3ManneAS.ProgrammingofEcnomicLotSizes,ManagementScience,1985,(4):115-135.4DzielinskBP,BakerCTandManneAS.SimulationTextsofLotSizeProgramming,ManagementScience,1963,(9):229-258.5ZangwillWI.ADeterministicMulti-Product,Multi-Facility,ProductionandInventoryModel.Op2erationalResearch,1966,(15):485-507.6EiesenhutPS.ADynamicLot-SizingAlgorithmwithCapacityConstraints,AIIETrans,1975,(7):170-176.7JohanMaesandVanLNWassenhove.Multi-ItemSingle-LevelCapacitatedDynamicLot-SizingHeuistics:aGeneralReview.JournalofOperationalResearchSociety,1988,39(11):991-1004.System,ManagementScience,30(2):229-239.8BillingtonPJ,McClainJOandThomasLJ.MathematicalProgrammingApproachestoCapacityCon2strainedMRPSystem:Review,FormulationandProblemReduction,ManagementScience,1983,(29):1126-1141.9GoldbergD.GeneticAlgorithmsinSearch,OptimizationandMachineLearning,Addision-Wesley,Reding,MA,1989.10,1CIMSMRP-Ê1,Vol23,Sup.91-98111,1CIMSMRP-Ê1-CIMS,1(2):15-191(8),,,,()1HowordRAandMathsonJE.InfluenceDiagraminthePrinciplesandApplicationofDecisionAnaly2sis.VolÊRAHowardandJEMatheson(eds.)StrategicdecisiongroupMenloPark,Calif1984:721-762.2ShachterRD.Evaluatinginfluencediagrams.OpcrationsResearch,34(6)(Nov.-Dec.,1986).3ZhanYuanrui.EvaluatingInfluenceDiagramswithSuperValueNodeZ.IntheProceedingsoftheSec2ondConferenceoftheAPORS1991,2.411,199514419974©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.