决策陷阱已改

DecisionTheoryandMethods决策理论与方法国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院2012年3月6日星期二主要内容常见的决策陷阱类型避免决策陷阱的方法教学重难点常见的决策陷阱类型教学要求理解常见的决策陷阱了解避免决策陷阱的方法第四讲：决策陷阱1.决策是普遍存在的Thepervasivenessofdecisionmaking2.理性决策程序模式TheRationaldecisionmakingprocess3.情绪的影响：决策陷阱的实例TheEmotionaleffect4.如何做一个成功的决策者内容大纲(一)个人1.考研vs.工作2.BuyingDecision3.ConsumerBehavior1.决策是普遍存在的一生能有几次选择？举例说明你最差劲的一次决策。课堂讨论(二)公司1.营销：秦池2.生产：冠生圆3.控制：三株1.确定问题5.分析备选方案2.辨识决策准则6.选择一个决策方案3.分配权重给准则7.执行决策方案4.发展备选方案8.评估决策效能讨论：1.见识谋断，Intelligent,Design,Choiceactivity2.那一步最难？以买电脑为例。理性决策程序模式ProblemIdentification“Mysalespeopleneednewcomputers”IdentificationofDecisionCriteriaPriceWeightWarrantyScreentypeReliabilityScreensizeAllocationofWeightstoCriteriaReliability10Screensize8Warranty5Weight5Price4Screentype3DevelopmentofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaImplementationofanAlternativeGatewayEvaluationofDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaSelectionofanAlternativeAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba©PrenticeHall,2002TheDecision-MakingProcessCriteria（weights）AlternativesInitialPrice（10）InteriorComfort（8）Durability（5）RepairRecord（5）Performance（3）Handling（1）BuickCentury873567FordTaurus71066810HondaAccord8681088MercedesBenz190E1810101010NissanMaxima5769108PlymouthReliant1052333DecisionCriteriaandWeightsCriteria（weights）AlternativesInitialPriceInteriorComfortDurabilityRepairRecordPerformanceHandlingTotalBuickCentury80561525187＝201FordTaurus708030302410＝224HondaAccord80484050248＝250Mercedes-Benz190E106450503010＝214NissanMaxima50563045308＝219PlymouthReliant10040101593＝177AssessmentofCarAlternatives1.问题的类型：结构良好，若结构不佳？2.理性的限制：若非完全理性？理性决策模式的假设前提AssumptionsStructuredProblemsInvolvegoalsthatclear.Arefamiliar(haveoccurredbefore).Areeasilyandcompletelydefined—informationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete.ProgrammedDecisionArepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.e.g.Policy,Procedure,Rules.UnstructuredProblemsProblemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.Problemsthatwillrequirecustom-madesolutions.NonprogrammedDecisionsDecisionsthatareuniqueandnonrecurring.Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses.ProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsLevelinOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredTypeofProblemTypesofProblems,Decisions,andLevelintheOrganization14决策者最常犯的错误：问错问题！1.将一般性问题视为一连串的独立事件来处理2.每次遇到新问题，常都视之为旧问题的翻版不可套用旧方法处理新问题。3.给问题错误的、似是而非的、不完整的定义针对所有可观察事实，一再检查定义，修正新定义。AssumptionsofRationalityTheParadoxofChoice高级新果酱样品试吃，6vs.24种,何者吸引人较多？实际买较多？BoundedRationalityManagersmakedecisionsrationally,butarelimited(bounded)bytheirabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfied-choosethe1stalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem.InfluenceondecisionmakingOrg.culture,Power&politics,and…….TheRoleofIntuitionIntuitivedecisionmakingMakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgment.19WhatisIntuition?20GuidelinesformakingeffectivedecisionsItfocusesonwhatisimportant.Itislogicalandconsistent.Itacknowledgesbothsubjectiveandobjectivethinkingandblendsanalyticalwithintuitivethinking.Itrequiresonlyasmuchinformationandanalysisasisnecessarytoresolveaparticulardilemma.Itisstraightforward,reliable,easytouse,andflexible.21Habitsofhighlyreliableorganizations(HROs)1.Arenottrickedbytheirsuccess.2.Defertotheexpertsonthefrontline.3.Letunexpectedcircumstancesprovidethesolution.4.Embracecomplexity.5.Anticipate,butalsoanticipatetheirlimits.223.情绪的影响：决策陷阱的实例TheEmotionaleffect3.1营销高手vs.精明顾客3.2心理账户vs.金钱账户3.3其他：送礼、激励的艺术……BehaviorEconomics:Buyingdecisions:consumerbehavior,product/service(hedonic,utilitarian,positional),promotionstrategy.CommonDecisionTraps24CommonDecisionTrapsHeuristicsUsing“rulesofthumb”tosimplifydecisionmaking.OverconfidenceBiasHoldingunrealisticallypositiveviewsofone’sselfandone’sperformance.ImmediateGratificationBiasChoosingalternativesthatofferimmediaterewardsandthattoavoidimmediatecosts.CommonDecisionTrapsAnchoringEffectFixatingoninitialinformationandignoringsubsequentinformation.SelectivePerceptionBiasSelectingorganizingandinterpretingeventsbasedonthedecisionmaker’sbiasedperceptions.ConfirmationBiasSeekingoutinformationthatreaffirmspastchoicesanddiscountingcontradictoryinformation.CommonDecisionTrapsFramingBiasSelectingandhighlightingcertainaspectsofasituationwhileignoringotheraspects.AvailabilityBiasLosingdecision-makingobjectivitybyfocusingonthemostrecentevents.RepresentationBiasDrawinganalogiesandseeingidenticalsituationswhennoneexist.RandomnessBiasCreatingunfoundedmeaningoutofrandomevents.CommonDecisionTrapsSunkCostsErrorsForgettingthatcurrentactionscannotinfluencepasteventsandrelateonlytofutureconsequences.Self-ServingBiasTakingquickcreditforsuccessesandblamingoutsidefactorsforfailures.HindsightBiasMistakenlybelievingthataneventcouldhavebeenpredictedoncetheactualoutcomeisknown(after-the-fact).某地爆发传染病，预测死600人甲地对策A:600人当中，有200人可获救。对策B:1/3机率救600人，2/3机率救0人。对策A:72