中国上市公司投资价值研究

中国上市公司投资价值研究中文摘要众所周知，任何一个国家的经济增长过程均伴随着金融的发展过程，金融发展的重要内容之一，是资本市场首先是股票市场的发展。1990、1991年上交所和深交所成立，标志着中国股票市场的建立。作为自主经营、自负盈亏的商品生产者和经营者——上市公司，是我国经济运行中最具发展优势的群体，是资本市场尤其是股票市场投资价值的源泉。中国股票市场发展十几年的经验提醒广大投资者，并非每家上市公司的股票都具投资价值，对于中国的广大投资者来说，在股市十几年的搏击之后，通常亏多赚少，沪深两市的发展牵动着千千万万投资者的心。在中国股票市场逐步摆脱盲目投机现象，走向成熟和理性的形势下，价值投资理念成为引导中国股市的主流。作为价值投资理念代表的巴菲特，被评为欧美证券市场的“常青树”。他在证券领域可谓从白手起家到富可敌国，无论股市是牛气冲天还是低迷疲软，巴菲特在市场上的表现总体上而言是非常优秀的，他从上市公司本身出发，把公司股票的价值和公司价值联系起来，获得的丰厚的回报。巴菲特的投资方法一致被证明是成功的，其成功的投资经历值得我们借鉴和研究。研究巴菲特投资理念，站在上市公司的角度分析公司股票的价值，首先可以帮助投资者更加理性的投资；其次有利于上市公司发现自身的不足之处，激励上市公司规范经营、稳健经营和勇于创新，提高上市公司质量；最后从公司本身出发，可缓解股市低迷时投资者人心涣散、信心全无的现象，有利于股市的健康平稳运行。本文着重巴菲特投资理念的研究，主要内容如下：首先，在国内外对巴菲特研究的基础上，归纳巴菲特主要的投资原则和投资思路。其中：投资原则是：一、集中投资，长期持有；二、能力圈原则。投资思路分为两步，第一步在能力圈内选出杰出企业，第二步等候投资时机，集中资金购买并长期持有。其次，归纳巴菲特投资策略，从定性和定量两方面分析其选择企业的标准。按照巴菲特选择企业的标准，并参考中国现有的评价体系，提出评价企业的定量模型。再次，依照大智慧对行业板块的分类，选择中国运输物流板块38家上市公司进行实证分析，按照模型所需指标选取数据，并进行同向化和标准化处理，采用因子分析法对其进行分析，选出得分最高的企业。最后，通过估算得分最高的企业价值，并与该企业实际情况对比后，得出熊市尤其是熊市向牛市的过渡时期是最好的购买时机，因为此时具有较高的安全边际。关键词：巴菲特；上市公司；投资价值AbstractAsweallknow,thedevelopmentoftheeconomicinanycountryisalwaysaccompanywiththedevelopmentofthefinancial,andanimportantpartofthedevelopmentofthefinancialisthecapitalmarketfirstofwhichisthedevelopmentofthestockmarket.Theestablishmentoftheshanghaistockexchangein1991andShenzhenstockexchangein1990markedtheestablishmentofChina’sstockmarket.Thelistedcompany,asthecommodityproducersandoperatorsthatself-financingandmakedecisionsbytheirself,isthemostadvantagepopulationinthedevelopmentofChina’seconomic,andalsoisthesourceofinvestmentvalueincapitalmarket.Morethe10yearsofdevelopmentexperienceinChina’sstockmarketremindinvestorsthatnoteverylistedcompany’sstockhasavalueofinvestment.Vastnumbersofinvestorsusuallyearnlessmoneyaftermorethan10yearsinChina’sstockmarket.ThedevelopmentofChina’sstockmarketaffectstensofthousandsofinvestors.AsChina’sstockmarkethasgraduallyshakenoffspeculationinblindlyandhasbecomemorematureandrational,thevalueinvestmentphilosophybecomesthemainstreamthatguidedChina’sstockmarket.Asarepresentativeofthevalueinvestmentphilosophy,Buffettwasnamed“evergreen”inEuropeandUnitedStatesstockmarket.Hestartedfromscratchtofugediguoinsecuritiesfield.Whetherthemarketwasstrengthorweakness,Buffett’sperformanceisverygoodonthewhole.Hestartedfromthecompaniesthemselvesandlinkedthestockvaluetothecompany’svalue,andaccessedtothelucrativereturns.Buffett’sinvestmentisagreedthatitwassuccessful;hissuccessfulinvestmentexperienceisworthourreferenceandresearch.StudyingonBuffett’sinvestmentphilosophyandresearchingfromthepointofthecompany’sstockvalue,firstofall,canhelpinvestorstobemorerationalinvestment;andsecondlycanhelpthelistedcompaniesfindtheshortcomingofthemselvesandmakethemstandardizeandsoundtheiroperations,alsoinnovateinordertoimprovethequalityofthemselves,andfinallyresearchfromthecompanythemselvescaneasethephenomenonofslackandnoconfidencebyinvestorswhenthestockmarketwasweakness,thiscanhelpthestockmarkettobehealthyandstableoperation.ThispaperpayattentiontotheBuffett’sinvestmentphilosophy,themaincontentisasfollows:Firstofall,onthebasisofthestudyonBuffettthatthehomeandabroadresearched,thispapersummedupthemainprincipleoftheBuffett’sinvestmentofwhich,thefirstwasconcentrationofinvestmentandlong-termholdersandthesecondwastheprincipleofcapacitycircle.AndalsotheideasoftheBuffett’sinvestmentofwhichdividedintotwosteps,atfirst,investorsshouldelectthecompanyintheirowncapacitycircle;thesecond,investorsshouldwaitfortheinvestmentopportunitiesandpurchasebyconcentratefunds,andthenkeeplong-termholders.Thesecond,thispapersummarizedBuffett‘sinvestmentstrategy.IteducedthequantitativeevaluationofenterprisemodelfrombothqualitativeandquantitativeanalysishowBuffettselectedcorporateandalsowithreferencetoChina'scurrentevaluationsystem.Thethird,inaccordingwiththeindustryclassificationofDazhihui,thispaperchoose38listedcompanieswhichbelongedtotransportandlogisticsplateforempiricalanalysis.Sothispapercollectedthedatathatthemodelneededanddealwiththestandardizationandprocessing,thenitusedfactoranalysismethodandselectedthecompanythatgotthehighestscores.Thefourth,thispaperestimatedthevalueoftheselectedcompanyandcontrasteditwiththeactualsituation.Theniteducedthatthebearmarketespeciallytheinterimwhenthebearmarketchangedtothebullmarketwasthebesttimeforstockswap,becauseatthistimetherehasahighsafetymargins.Keywords:Buffett;listedcompany;investmentvalue目录第一章绪论..................................................................................................................61.1研究背景及意义..................................................................................................................................71.1.1中国股票市场的发展状况.............................................................................................71.1.2研究上市公司投资价值的意义...................................................................................91.2概念界定.............................................................................................................................................111.3研究内容和研究方法...........