价值创造

EVA39ValueCreation,InvestmentEfficiencyandGrowthEVAandtheStudyonthePanelDataof39Industries,[e-mail]1EVA39(EVA)2000200539EVAEVAValueCreation,InvestmentEfficiencyandGrowthEVAandtheStudyonthePanelDataof39IndustriesAbstractWiththerapidgrowthofrecentyears,manypeoplepaymuchattentiononthehighinvestmentrateandhowtoevaluatesuchphenomenonisanimportantissue.Basedonthemethodofeconomicvalueadded(EVA),wecalculatetheEVAspreadsof39industriesfrom2000to2005andanalysistheirrelationshipbetweentheinvestments.Wefindthat,totallyspeaking,highinvestmentgrowthcanstillcreatevalue,i.e.efficient,whichmeanstheeconomicgrowthbasedontherapidinvestmentgrowthiscredible.Ofcourse,bytheempiricalresults,wefindthatthevaluecreationcapabilityofinvestmentisstillweakandthegrowthmodeisstillrude,highmaterialdevotionandhighconsumption.So,weshouldraisetheinvestmentefficiencyandpromotethegrowthtotheintensivemode.KeyWordsEVAInvestmentEconomicGrowth2120002005(52.1%)1200543.4%1993(43.5%)2200047.4%2064.3%(48.3%)()20002.1%2000-0.4%20045.9%16.2%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%19781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420051(%)(2005200420032005)(20052005,)(20042006)121993(GDP1.97%11.1%)(62.1%)20054.5%16.9%20053(20042005)(2006)(2006)()200076.5%202.620042005(73.3%)26.7%3(ROA)(ROE)()(BennettStewart2003)80(EVAEconomicValueAdded)EVA450%2005GDP47.3%7.152004200538.3%38.4%16.718.420052.92.939EVA2000200539(PanelData)32006742006155200674EVAEVA60(JoelStern)(MertonMiller)(FrancoModiglianni)(WilliamSharpe)(EPS)80(EVA)EVA(SternStewart)61993920(Fortune)EVA(2003)EVAEVA7(1999)(2000)(2001)(2004)(2004)EVA8(2002)(2004)EVA2002(2003a,b(2005)EVAGDPROAROE(EPS)GDPEVAEVAEVA=—6EVA(SternStewart)350EVA72000EVA1120016200022003EVA28EVA5()9EVA=—rEVAEVAEVAEVAEVA(EVASpread)EVA=(EVA/)100%391020002005EVAEVA122003EVA2003EVA139EVA200020012002200320042005-0.01198-0.0106-0.01401-0.001330.0071350.012644-0.003410.001087-0.015020.0120370.0186950.0255230.0016010.0012340.0011380.0013030.0024280.0047519EVA(2003)(20022003a,b,2005)EVA10()20036-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.45()200020012002200320042005220002005EVA()GDP()()EVA392000200522EVA(EVA)0.0240.0190.404-0.0470.048225(INV)10.6329.20074.860-1.1808.229225EVA7'ititititityxαβ=++u;,,1Ni=1,tT=,(1)'12(,,,itititKit)xxxx=,'12(,,,itititKit)ββββ=ituKiT(1)'itiiitityxαβ=++u(2)iαiβ01:H()12Nβββ==='itiitityxαβ=++u(3)02:H1212,NNαααβββ======u'ititityxαβ=++(4)(2)(4)F()()()()3121111SSNKFSNTNK−−+=−+(5)()()()211111SSNKFSNTNK−−=−+3(6)(2)(3)(4)12SSS02H01H2F1F()()()()11,1NKNTK−+−−()()()1,1NKNKT−−−F2F()(5%)02H(4)1F()01H(2)(2)8(AR(1))Eviews4.0(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)5%1%F(500100)1.131.1912SSS3211.654,1.043FF==02H01H(3)EVA=0.0000899*INV[AR(1)=0.768539](0.00000996)(0.051938)1%R2=0.99D.W.=2.34F=626979.8-0.03320.0392-0.02740.0427-0.01060.04330.00190.04330.00400.04340.01900.04340.02290.04370.02300.04440.02390.04450.02540.04530.02790.04830.02990.04930.0304()0.05100.03360.05190.03370.05810.03420.09400.03440.10730.03590.10910.03700.17970.45040.991%FD.W.2.342EVA0.0000899%9EVAEVA0.0000899()(2006)2006815EVA101.2003(EVA)200382.200413.2000(EVA)00184.200265.2005216.200677.200310238.200469.1999110.2005“”1011.2004EVA1012.200482013.2000EVATM5114.2006(CCER)CCER73115.20013216.2004——517.20065072418.2006200512419.2004520.2002——GDP2121.2003a122.2003b,823.200541711