如何分析并作出正确的决策HowToAutomateSm

©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.HowToAutomateSmartDecisionMakingwithBI&AnalyticsMarkSmith–CEO&EVPResearch©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.2AgendaWhatisdecisionmanagementtechnologyWhatkindsofdecisionsshouldnotbeautomated?Whatarerule-basedsystemsandwhyaretheyadvantageous?What'saremainthedifferencesbetweenBI,AnalyticsandDecisionManagement?Howaretheabovepractices/technologiesmeasured?©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.3ExcessiveFocusonUnderstanding:RearView,HistoricalPerspective©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.4PerformanceManagementProvidesEmphasisonImprovementandAutomationofDecisionsAmethodologythatexaminesthepeople,process,informationandtechnologyandaprocessthatalignsbusinessandtechnologytoimproveresults.PerformanceManagementProcessUnderstand–Comprehendthestatusofpeople,organizationandbusinessprocesses.Optimize–Planforfutureactionsanddecisionsthatcanachievetheobjectivesandgoals.Align–Communicateandprovideguidance,objectives,goalsandincentives.VentanaResearchPerformanceCycle™PerformanceManagement©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.5DecisionManagementImprovebusinessdecisionsthroughdesign,deploymentandrefinementofoperationaldecisionmakingproceduresDecisionManagementhelpsenterprisemakebetter,moreconsistentbusinessdecisions–Maximizerevenue,minimizecosts,streamlinebusinessprocesses–ViaWeb,OLTP,callcenter,andbatchapplications–AgileevolutionofdecisionmakingtomeetnewbusinesschallengesGivedataanalysts,businesspolicymakers,corporateportfoliomanagers,anditimplementerstoolstounderstandanduseeachothersinformationUseanalysisofthepasttomodifydecisionstrategiesinthepresenttocorrectlymanageandguidefutureactivitiesWhatisIt?©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.6DecisionManagementExamplesCustomermanagementdecisionshowtohandleparticularrequestsforservices,howtotreatcustomersincollections,whethertoincreaseexposuretocurrentcustomersthroughadditionalcreditoffers,etc.Supplierselectiondecisionswhichsuppliertouseforagivenorderofpartsbasedoncost,pastdeliveryhistory,customerpreferences,etc.Advertiserselectiondecisionswhichadvertisershouldbeselectedforagivenadvertisementopportunitygivenexistingcontracts,typeofopportunity,recentlyshownads,etc.Auditselectiondecisionswhichtaxpayersshouldbeselectedforauditinggivenexperiencewithpreviousaudits,pastfilings,currentpolicies,etc.©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.7ExaminingDecisionCyclesforAutomation1-RecognizeThreat/Opp.3-SetGoals/Objectives2-UnderstandFactors4-DeviseSolutions5-CompareSolutions6-DecideonActionPlan7-ExecuteActionPlan8-ReviewActionresultsInformationAcquisitionGoalSettingDecisionMakingActionCoordinationAreasoffacilitationofthedecisionmakingprocessAutomatedDecisionSystemsTraditionalBIuse©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.8DecisionManagementandAutomationAutomateddoesnotmeanlightsoutDecisionreviewsometimeoralwaysrequiredDecisionexceptionmanagementRulesenginemaintenanceandupdatesInputAutomatedDecisionsModels/RulesReviewsExceptions©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.9ApplicationorUserrequestingadecisionDecisionManagementFrameworkDecisionManagementApplicationorInterfacePredictiveModelsDevelopmentEnvironmentBusinessRuleEngineDataSourcesThirdPartyApplicationsorInterfacesRepository©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.10BusinessRules–DecisionManagementRulesareconditionalstatementsofhowtorespondtodataoreventswithabusinesstransactionIfFerrariis$30,thenbuyquicklyBusinessrulestakemanyformsPolicies,practices,andproceduresyouusetomakeoperationaldecisionsStrategiesbasedonhistoricaldataandbusinessacumenDecisionTreesDecisionTablesRulescarryoutactionssuggestedbymodelingandoptimizationstrategiesBusinessrulesarefoundinyourcompanypolicymanuals,inlinesofcodeinlegacysystems,interdepartmentalmemos,andinthemindsofyourexperiencedemployees©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.11BusinessRules–DecisionManagementRulesEnginesEvolutionofExpertsystemsTwostepprocess–Createrulesusingexperts–DeploytherulesetWhat’snew–Graphicaldevelopmentandadministration–Matureruledevelopmentenvironments–Robustplatforms–Integrationwithcomplimentarytechnologies–Accessibletobusinessmanagers/non-technologists–Industryexperiencewithsuccessandfailure©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.12PredictiveModeling–DecisionManagementPredictiveModelingAppliedstatisticsandotherdataminingapproaches–Regression/NeuralNetworks–Classification,Segmentation2stepprocess–Createthemodel,usethemodelWhat’snew–Improved,graphicaluserinterfaces–Automationofmodelcreation–Integrationwithrulesengines–Industryexperiencewithsuccessandfailure©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.13DecisionManagement-MaturityCurveBusinessRulesAutomationLeveragedExpertiseAutomatedDecisionsNoOptimizationDecisionRefinementLeveragedExpertiseAutomatedDecisionsManualTuningAdaptiveControlAutomatedaccessAutomatedprocessingDecisionTestingManualTuningPredictiveModelingAutomatedaccessAutomatedprocessingDecisionTestingPredictiveModelsManualanalysisManualdecisionsDecisionOptimizationAutomatedaccessAutomatedprocessingRoutedDecisionsPredictiveModelsManualanalysisManualdecisions©2006,VentanaResearch,Inc.14DecisionManagementApplicationNeedsE-Commercenowadrivingfactorinreal-timetransactions$80Bannualrunra