移动互联网未来20年趋势预测报告

mobiletrendsforthenext10acollaborativeoutlookcompliledbyRudyDeWaele/m-trends.orgenjoy!contributorsDouglasRushkoffKatrinVerclasWillemBoijensTimoArnallGerdLeonhardFabienGirardinAlanMooreMartinDuvalTonyFishIljaLaursYurivanGeestNicolasNovaRaimovanderKleinRussellBuckleyTomiAhonenStefanConstantinescuRichWongMarshallKirkpatrickAndyAbramsonMarekPawlowskiRussMcGuireCarloLonginoHowardRheingoldSteveO'HearTedMorgan456791011121314151718192021232425262728303132KevinC.TofelJonathanMacDonaldDavidWoodMichaelBreidenbrueckerHenriMoissinacAndreasConstantinouC.EnriqueOrtizRajSinghMarcDavisDavidHarperLoicLeMeurAjitJaokarInmaMartinezCarlosDomingoKellyGotoFelixPetersenMatthausKrzykowskiTomHumeAtauTanakaRobertRiceYou!(ifyoulike)333436373839404243444547484950515354555658Attheturnofadecadeit'salwaysworthwhilelookingbacktoonesinitialdreams.Inmycaseitwasallaboutbeingattheforefrontofinnovationinthemobilespace.FromviewingmyfirstmobilevideoinHelsinkitothefirstmobileaugmentedrealitydemoinAmsterdam.Ihadthechancetoparticipateinandwitnessmanyinterestingprojectsinmobilefromthe1strow:asanentrepreneur,astrategist,aconferenceorganizer,ablogger,aspeakerandanetworkerwithamissiontoinspireothers,tohelpthemintheprocessofbuildingnewgreatthings.TothisendIhavebeenwritingdownmypredictionsinmobile&wirelessforacoupleofyearsnow.ThisyearIthoughtitwasthetimetomoveonanddosomethingdifferent,soIaskedsomeofmypersonalheroesinmobiletowritedowntheirfivemostsignificanttrendsforthecomingdecade.Allofthemhavebeenofgreatinspirationtomeduringthisdecade:fortheirideas,visions,talent,thecapabilitiestoadaptandtheperseverancetosucceedwhateverthesituation.WhileIdidn'tknowanyoneofthesegreatpeople10yearsago,I'mgladtohavemetmostofthemandproudthatsomeIcancallthemrealfriends.IaminaweandgratefulwhenIlookatthewisdomandinsightthatthesebusypeopleweresohappytosharewiththeworld.ItisexactlyinthisspiritthatImyselfwanttomoveonintothenextdecade.Convincedthatmoreopenness,knowledgesharingandcollaborationiskeytofacingourglobalchallenges,in2009,Ico-foundeddotopen.com.Aspaceatthefuzzyedgesofinnovation,dotopen.comwillhopefullyhelpmanyentrepreneursandorganizationsacrossallindustriestoopenup,exchange,collaborate,createandinspire.Ihopetomeetyouallthere!RudyDeWaeleco-founderdotopen.com,blogger,[e-mail].5.R[e-mail]4KatrinVerclasCo-founder&[e-mail]ntwilltrulybecomeanintegralpartofdevelopmentprojectsandprogrammeswithaidorganizationsunderstandingthepotentialofmobilesandsmartlydeployingmobiletechaspartoftheirprogrammes.UNICEFandCONCERNwillbeatthevanguard.2.Africawillseethefirsttrulymobilepoliticalcampaign.It'llbelikelyinNigeriain2010.3.Mobilepaymentswillbewidespread-forsocialbenefitpaymentsbygovernments,forremittancesacrossborders,andfortaxandotherpaymentsbycitizens.Thiswillmakefinancialgovernanceeverysoslightlymoreaccountableindevelopingcountries,andwillbegintomakeapositiveeconomicimpactatthebottomoftheeconomicpyramid.4.Healthcaredelivery,especiallyindevelopingcountries,willseesometruebreakthroughswithmoretelemedicineprojectslikemobileultrasoundandotherdiagnostics.Newbusinessmodelsinvolvingmedicalexpertiseremotelywillemergesothatthedividebetweenhealthcarebetweenrichandpoorareaswillflatten.5.Electionsandotherformsofpoliticalexpressionbycitizens,governmentoversightwillberadicallydifferentthantheyaretodaybywayofmobilevoting,mobilesforreportingandgovernmentaccountability.6.Environmentalmonitoringintheformofsmartsensingdeviceswillbepartofeverydaylifewithnewformsofscientificenvironmentaldiscoveryandmitigationpossible.BYNCND5WillemBoijensMarketinginnovation&designexecutive/[e-mail]'reallvaluecreators:valuecreation&exchange,collaboration,cocreationinreal-time,thenextbillioninternetusers2.LifeFlow:wellbeing,productivity,efficiency,sustainability3.Sense:naturalinterfaces,projectiondisplay,LargeQuantityInformationDisplay(LQID),ambientvssingletaskdrivenUIs4.Swarming:dynamicgrids,ad-hoc&meshednetworks,spatialdata,adaptivearchitecture,smartmobility&energyservices5.Morph:identities,shapes&materials,wearables,disposables,digestablesBYNCND61.Thingsandservices:Theincreasingconnectionbetweenphysicaldevicesandonlineserviceswilldrivenewapplicationsthattakepersonaldataandturnitintouseful,personal,social,visualandmanipulablerepresentations.Withallofthesepersonalactivitiesthatcanbemeasuredor'counted'(Nike+,WattsonandFoursquareareprototypical)thereispotentialforabroadrangeofpersonalandpublicservices.2.Physicaldiversification:Therewillbeanenormousphysicaldiversificationofconnecteddevices.Inmanycasesaconnectedobjectarenolongerjust'mobile'bute-readers,cameras,musicplayers,andhouseholdappliancesallthewayuptocars,publicspacesandbuildings(wherethereisagoodreasontodoso).3.Da