直感决策的参考点方法研究

199911a(,710049),.:,.ReferencePointMethodsofIntuitiveDecisionMakingZhengWenfuLiHuaizu(ManagementSchoolofXi’anJiaotongUniversity,Xi’an710049)AbstractItisacknowledgedthatintuitivedecisionmakingisbasedonthedetermina2tionofsuitablereferencepoints.Therefore,itisnecessarytoexploretheselectionmechanismofreferencepoints.Theauthorscategorizedanddefinedfourtypesofrefer2encepoints:lower2valuedreferencepoints,higher2valuedreferencepoints,match2typedreferencepointsandcontext2dependentreferencepoints.Theauthorsalsodis2cussedpossiblebiasesproducedbyunsuitableusingofthesetypesofreferencepoints.Keywordsintuitivedecisionmaking;representativenessheuristic;anchoringandad2justmentheuristic;context1(anchoringandadjustment)[1].,,(),(),.,.,.,011,,,;0165,,,.,,,.,.,,,,.a199784©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2211(image),.[1],(schema)(instance)(scenario),:Xk={xk1,xk2,,xkr,yk1,yk2,,yks}Xkn=r+s,,r,,,s,,.,,:x11x12x1ry11y12y1sx21x22x2ry21y22y2sxm1xm2xmrym1ym2yms(2.1)m(),m,.,:1)x3i=mink{xki},i=1,2,,r;y3i=maxk{yki},i=1,2,,s:X3={x31,x32,,x3r,y31,y32,,y3s}(2.2),.2)xi=maxk{xki},i=1,2,,r;yi=mink{yki},i=1,2,,s:X={x1,x2,,xr,y1,y2,,ys}(2.3),.3)[2].,m,.,,,:X={x1,x2,,xr,y1,y2,,ys}(2.4),,m.,r+s,.4),(211),,,,.,,,,.2519991[2]:,.©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,.,,.212,,.1).,,,,,,,,,,,.,,.,,..,.,,.,,,,,,,..,,,,,.,,,.,,,.:,,,,.,,,,.,,,,,.,,.2),,;,;,,.,,.50,,,,,.,,().,,,,.,.,,,,,,.351©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,.3),,.,,,,,,..,,.,.,,,.,(),,,;(),,.,,.,..:,,,,,..,:,,,.,.:?:,.,..,,,;,,,,;,,,;,,,;,,,,.,,,,.,,.,().,.4),,,,,,.,,.:É.X,Y,X:Y(:),X,YZ,,Y:X.,.,.,X,Y,,X,Z,ZX,Y,,Y.Ê.{X,Y},:4519991©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.B1={X,Y},B2={X,Y}X,Y,X,Y,X,Y1.1Ê,B1,X:Y;B2,Y:X.,.,.SimonsonTversky[3](1).1,,.1(Tversky&Simonson,1993)()()B1B2(n=111)(n=109)X550008512àY750009188àX300002584àY350004916à()()X400006057à33àY500007543à67à3,.:,.,,,,.(111)551©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.5FuzzyFuzzy,,.Fuzzy(FuzzyFuzzyFuzzyFuzzyFuzzy).,,,11211:,1993211,1996,9(1):313631,(863)1:,199541Fuzzy1,1997,11(1)511:,19946TanassovKAandGargov.IntervalValuedinTuitionisticFuzzySets.FuzzySetsandSystem.1989,31:3433497GooKmanJK,NguyenHT,WalkeyEA.ConditionalReferenceandLogicforArtificialIntelligence,19918HalpernJY,MosesYO.AGuidetoCompletenessandComplexityforModalLogicofKnowledgeandBelief.ArtificialIntelligence,1992,54(55)111:,19932TverskyA.KahnemanD.Judgementunderuncertainty:Heuristicsandbiases.Science,1974,(185):112411313SimonsonI,TverskyA.Choiceincontext:tradeoffcontrastandextremenessaversion.JournalofMarketingResearch,1992,29:2312951111Fuzzy©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.