直觉决策研究综述与展望

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(,210094):,,,:;;:C934:A:1002-9753(2008)05-0140-08TheRetrospectandProspectofIntuitiveDecision-makingResearchBAIJu(CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,NanjingUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Nanjing210094,China)Abstract:Intuitivedecision-makingmeanstostudydecision-makingbehaviorfromtheperspectiveofimagethinking.Ithasposedachallengetotheclassicdecision-makinghypotheseswhichseekoptimaldecisionbasedonrationalperson.Theintuitiondecision-makingbasedonimagethinkingisalsothenewtrendontodaysdecisiontheory.Thispaperretrospectstherelatedliteratureofintuitivedecision-makingandpointsoutthepossiblefutureareasofresearch.Keywords:decision-makingtheory;intuitivedecision-making;imaginalthinking,[1],2040,,[2],,,,,,,[3],,:2007-12-27:2008-04-25:(1979-),,,04120085,[4],1(intuitivedecision-making,),:,,,,,,1981,R.W.Spanley[5],,,,,;,,,[6],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,1.(1)ChesterBarnard,ChesterBarnard[7],,1938ChesterBarnardFunc2141tionsoftheExecutive[8]1936PrincetonMindinEverydayAf2fairs,,,,,Barnard,,,,(),,,,,Barnard,(2),1955Simon[9],Simon1947,Simon,,[10],Simon,:(1),,,(2),,,(3),,,,,,,,:,;-[11],[12],,,2.1956GerogeMiller,[13]Miller241200857,Miller(chunking,)1956CharlesLindblom,(methodofsuccessivelimitedcomparisons)[14]Simon,Lindblom:,1960AdriandeGroot,,,Groot(progressivedeepening)[15]1963RechardCyertJamesMach,,CyertMach(situationassessment)[16]1974JamesLMckenneyPeterG.W.Keen,,[17]1975HenryMintzberg[18],,,3.1980-1983,TexasWestonAgor2000Myers-BriggsTypeIndicator(MB2TI)MBTI40,,,,:(leftbrainfunction)(rightbrainfunction)(integrativebothleft-and-rightfunction)[19],11,,:,,:WestonHAgor.UsingIntuitiontoManageOrganizationintheFuture.BusinessHorizons,1984,7(8):49-54..341WestonAgor,,1985JohnNaisbittReinvestingtheCorporation:1983JonasSalkIntuition:[20]1987,Simon,,40,,;Simon,,[21]4.,,1990,RobertC.Blattberg:50%+50%,[22]1997AndrzdjP.Wierzbicki:,Wierzbicki,,[23]2003SharondeMonsabertM.Asce,,SharondeMonsabertM.Asce[24]2004,ErikCzPratt,,Pratt;Pratt[25]2004,LisaSayegh,WilliamP.AnthonyandPamelaL.Perrewe[26]:,,,,2,,,2005C.ChetMillerandR.DuaneIreland21,Miller,,,441200852:LisaSayegh,WilliamP.AnthonyandPamelaL.Perrewe.ManagerialDecision-MakingunderCrisis:theRoleofEmotioninanIntuitiveDecisionProcess.HumanResourceManagementreview2004,14:179-199.[27](),[28]6,[29],:[30],,,,19806::(1999),[31],,:,(2000),Ds=f(R,I)R=(A,t1,v1)I=(k,sa,e,c,t2,v2),R(rationaldecision);I(intuitivedecisionmaking);Ds(decisionsatisfying);A(alternatives),A=a1,a2,,aj;541ti(i=1,2),t2t1,,;k(organizationofknowl2edge);sa(situationalas2sessment):e(experience);m(mete-cognition);Vi(value)(i=1,2),:Ds=f[(A,t1,v1);(k,sa,e,c,t2,v2)],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[32],,,,,,(executivesupportsystems),,,:[1]HerbertASimon.AdministrativeBehavior:AStudyofDe2cisionMakingProcessesinAdministrativeOrganization[M].NewYork:MacmillanPublishingCo.,Inc,1971:31-36.[2][28],,.[A].[C].2001.245-251.[3][4][6],.[M].:,2004.[5].[M].:,2001.64120085[7]BurkeLA,MillerMK.TakingtheMysteryoutofIntui2tiveDecisionMaking[J].AcademyofManagementExecutive,1999,(13):91-99.[8]ChesterBarnard.TheFunctionoftheExecutive[M].1938.[9],.[M].:,1989.15-21.[10],.[J].,2000,(2):17-21.[11].[M].,.:,1989.20-21.[12].[M].,.:,1988.74-75.[13]GorgeMiller.TheMagicalNumberSeven[M].1956.[14].[M].:,2003.110-111.[15][18]EpsteinS.IntegrationoftheCognitiveandPsycho2dynamicUnconscious[J].AmericanPsychologist,1994,49(8):709-724.[16]EisenhardtK.MakingFastStrategicDecisioninHigh-VelocityEnvironment[J].AcademyofManagement,1989,32(3):543-576.[17]HayashiAM.WhenYouTrustYourGut[J].HarvardBusinessReview,1986,79(2):59-65.[19]WestonHAgor.UsingIntuitiontoManageOrganizationintheFuture[J].BusinessHorizons,1984,7(8):49-54.[20]WestonHAgor.IntuitioninOrganization:LeadingandManagingProductively[M].NewburyPark,1990,11:22-40.[21]HerbertASimon.MakingManagementDecision:theRoleofIntuitionandEmotion[J].AcademyofManagementExecutive,1987,(2):57-64.[22]RobertCBlattberg,TephenJHoch.DatabaseModelsandManagerialIntuition:50%Models+50%Manaager[J].ManagementScience,1990,36(8):887-899.[23]AndrzdjPWierzbicki.OntheRoleofIntuitioninDeci2sionMakingandSomeWaysofMufti-criteriaAidofIntuition[J].Mufti-criteriaDecisionAnalysis,1997,(76):66-76.[24]SharondeMonsabert,FrankSnyer.ComparativeEvalua2tionofAnalyticalandIntuitiveDecisionMaking[J].Manage2mentinEngineering,2003,(4):42-51.[25][27]ChetMiller,R.DuaneIreland.IntuitioninStrate2gicDecision-Making:FriendorFoeintheFast-paced21SCentury[J].AcademyofManagementExecutive,2005,19(1):19-30.[26]LisaSayegh,WilliamP.AnthonyandPamelaL.Per2rewe.ManagerialDecision-MakingunderCrisis:theRoleofEmotioninanIntuitiveDecisionProcess[J].HumanResourceManagementReview,2004,(14):179-199.[29].[J].,1998,(1):11-16.[30].[M].:,1993.7-9.[31],.[J].,1999,(1):92-95.[32],,.[M].:,1995.1-13.(:)741

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