1第四章:投资决策SectionD:InvestmentDecision2资本预算流程Topic1:CapitalBudgetingProcess3资本预算CapitalBudgeting流动投资–短期,当年结转冲销营运预算–营运活动的收入和费用计划资本投资–长期,初始现金流出随时间推移而逐渐摊销资本预算–长期资产的提议支出所制定的计划Currentinvestment–short-term,writtenoffinthesameyearOperatingbudget–planforoperatingexpensesandrevenueCapitalinvestment–long-term,initialcashoutlayreducedoveraperiodofyearsCapitalbudgeting–planofproposedoutlaysforlong-termasset4资本预算CapitalBudgeting资本预算编制的应用分类–扩张,重置,强制性,其他其他资本支出分类–效率和/或收入的产生,竞争效果,法规,安全,健康和环境的要求CapitalBudgetingApplicationsCategories–expansion,replace,mandatory,otherAlternatecapitalclassification–efficiencyand/orrevenuegeneration,competitiveeffectiveness,regulatory,safety,health,andenvironmentrequirement5资本预算编制的项目纬度和时间纬度项目纬度时间纬度–货币的时间价值,889页资本预算编制的阶段划分资本预算编制的阶段划分–图表2D-1,889页ProjectandTimeDimensioninCapitalBudgetingProjectionDimensionTimeDimension–timevalueofmoney,page377StageofCapitalBudgetingStagesofCapitalBudgeting–figure2D-1,page378资本预算CapitalBudgeting6增量现金流IncrementalCashFlows评价资本投资现金流的关键点–890页资本预算项目阶段的现金流入和流出–图表2D-2,891页直接效应–现金流入,现金流出或承诺纳税效应–由纳税收入和可扣除费用引起净效应Keypointsinevaluatingcapitalinvestmentcashflows–page378CashinflowsandoutflowduringaCapitalBudgetingProject–figure2D-2,page379DirectEffect–cashinflow,outfloworcommitmentTaxEffect–causedbythetaxabilityofrevenuesanddeductibilityofexpensesNetEffect7增量现金流IncrementalCashFlows初始期现金流资本预算项目阶段的现金流入和流出–图表2D-3,891页营运期现金流营运期的增量现金流–图表2D-4,892页处置期现金流处置期的增量现金流–图表2D-5,892页InitiationCashFlowsIncrementalCashFlowsatInitiation–figure2D-3,page380OperationCashFlowsIncrementCashFlowsDuringOperation–figure2D-4,page380DisposalCashFlowsIncrementCashFlowsatDisposal–figure2D-5,page3818增量现金流案例初始增量现金流–图表2D-6,893页净营运收入预测–图表2D-7,893页营运期和处置期的增量现金流–图表2D-8,893页预期增量现金流–图表2D-9,894页IncrementalCashFlowExampleIncrementalCashFlowatInitiation–figure2D-6,page382ProjectionsforNetOperationRevenue–figure2D-7,page382IncrementalCashFlowsfromOperationandDisposal–figure2D-8,page382ExpectedIncrementalCashFlows–figure2D-9,page383增量现金流IncrementalCashFlows9所得税考虑事项IncomeTaxConsideration与折旧有关的税务规则存在的差异–894页可税前扣除的折旧金额折旧基数–在一定期限内为纳税目的而冲销的金额折旧期三种技术–895页Taxrulespertainingtodepreciationdifferinthefollowingway–page383DepreciationAmountAllowableDepreciablebasis–amountthatcanbewrittenofffortaxpurposesoveraperiodofyearsDepreciationTimePeriodThreemaintechniques–page38410所得税考虑事项IncomeTaxConsideration折旧模式直线折旧法–895页加速折旧法–年数总和法,896页,余额递减法,896页,MACRS,897页折旧税盾作用DepreciationPatternStraight-lineDepreciation–page385AcceleratedDepreciation–sum-of-the-digits,page385,declining-balancedepreciation,page386,MACRS,page387Depreciationtaxshield11第二节:折现现金流分析Topic2:DiscountedCashFlowAnalysis12规定回报率RequiredRateofReturn使用以下标准来评价资本投资–初始现金流,预期未来现金流入和流出,规定回报率规定回报率–选择一项投资时可接受的未来最低回报率Followingcriteriatoevaluateacapitalinvestment–totalinitialcashflowfortheinvestment,expectedfuturecashinflowsandoutflow,requiredrateofreturnRequiredrateofreturn–minimumfuturereceiptsthefirmswillacceptinchoosinganinvestment13规定回报率RequiredRateofReturn最低回报率资本成本资本成本的公式–902页加权平均资本成本公式–902页MinimumRateofReturnCostofCapitalFormulaforthecostofcapital–page392Formulafortheweightedaveragecostofcapital–page39214净现值NetPresentValue净现值–未来现金流的现值减去项目的初始投资现值计算现值(PV)=现金流金额/(1+r)n1美元的部分复利现值系数表–图表2D-11,903页NetPresentValue–presentvalueoffuturecashflowslesstheinitialinvestmentintheprojectPresentValueCalculationPresentValue(PV)=AmountofCashFlow/(1+r)nPartialPresentValueof$1InterestFactorTable–figure2D-11,page39415净现值NetPresentValue净现值计算确定NPV的步骤–904页均匀现金流的例子–年金投资,图表2D-12,905页不均匀现金流的例子–905页净现值解释NPV的解释–906页NetPresentValueCalculationStepsindeterminingNPV–page395UniformNetCashFlowsExample–annuityinvestment,figure2D-12,page395UnevenCashFlowsExamples–page396NetPresentValueInterpretationNPVvaluesmaybeinterpreted–page39716内部回报率InternalRateofReturn内部回报率(IRR)-一个使净现金流入的现值等于初始投资的折现率对内部回报率的解释两个基本步骤–907页均匀净现金流的例子–907页不均匀现金流的例子–图表2D-14,2D-15,2D-16,908页Internalrateofreturn(IRR)–discountratethatmakesthepresentvalueofnetcashinflowequaltotheinitialinvestmentInternalRateofReturnInterpretationTwofundamentalsteps–page397UniformNetCashFlowsExample–page397-398UnevenCashFlowsExample–page398,figure2D-14,figure2D-15,figure2D-16,page39917NPV和IRR的比较ComparisonofNPVandIRRNPV和IRR都考虑–货币的时间价值,期初现金投资,初始投资后的所有现金两种方法都有可靠性方面的值得注意之处–909页只要没有以下方面的不同,NPV和IRR方法一般会产生相似的结果–909页BothNPVandIRRconsider–timevalueofmoney,initialcashinvestment,allcashflowafterinitialinvestmentBothmethodshavesomereliabilitycautions–page400NPVandIRRmethodswillyieldsimilarresultsaslongastherearenodifferences–page40018第三节:回收期和折现回收期Topic3:PaybackandDiscountedPayback19回收期法的使用UsesofPaybackMethod均匀净现金流的例子–912页不均匀现金流的例子–912页回收期法的解释回收期法的优点和缺点回收期法的优点和缺点–图表2D-18,913页UniformNetCashFlowsExample–page404UnevenCashFlowsExample–page405PaybackMethodInterpretationAdvantagesandDisadvantagesofthePaybackMethodAdvantageanddisadvantageofthePaybackMethod–figure2D-18,page40620折现回收期法DiscountedPayback折现回收期法–使用净现金流的现值,图表2D-19,914页Discountedpaybackmethod–usesthepresentvaluesofnetcashinflows,figure2D-19,page406