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1中国电动汽车发展展望DevelopmentandProspectofVehicleElectrificationinChina同济大学TongjiUniversity余卓平YuZhuoping2010.7.272中国汽车工业现状CurrentStateofChina'sAutomotiveIndustry近年来，中国汽车工业迅猛发展，2009年汽车产销总量均超过1360万辆，成为世界第一汽车生产大国(按2008年以前预计,到2020年我国社会汽车保有量达1.3-1.5亿辆，汽车年产量将达到1500万辆，成为世界第一大汽车制造国，这一预计显然已经保守)。China'sautomotiveindustryhasundergoneremarkabledevelopmentinrecentyears.Totalvehicleproductionandsalesin2009exceeded13.6millionunits,makingChinatheworld’slargestcar-makingnation.(Basedonestimatesbefore2008,by2020China’stotalcarpopulationwouldbe130-150million,andannualcarproductionvolumewouldbe15million,makingChinatheworld'slargestcar-makingnation.Thisestimateisnowobviouslyconservative.)3中国汽车工业发展面临的能源问题EnergyProblemsFacedByChina'sAutomotiveIndustryDuringItsGrowth汽车的快速增长使车用汽柴油需求不断增大,我国石油供应安全面临严峻挑战Rapidincreaseinautomobilepopulationhasmeantcontinuousincreaseindemandforautomotivepetrolanddiesel,posingseriouschallengesforthepetroleumsupply年份Year汽油消耗量PetrolConsumption柴油消耗量DieselConsumption燃油总消耗量TotalFuelConsumption2010784481331597720129087933418421201510801112772207920201539215146305381.422.253.24.5570.0%61.5%54.9%44.4%20052010F2015F2020F进口依存度我国未来车用燃油消耗量预测（单位：万吨）ProjectedFuelConsumptioninChina(Unit:'0,000tons)我国未来石油进口依存度预测（单位：亿吨）ProjectedRelianceonImportedCrudeOil(Unit:100milliontons)我国未来汽车保有量预测（单位：万辆）ProjectedCarPopulationinChina(Unit:'0,000vehicles)RelianceonImport0500010000150002000025000300002010年2015年2020年2025年2030年货车客车轿车20102015202020252030GoodsVehiclePassengerVehicleSedans4中国汽车工业面临的CO2问题CO2ProblemsFacedbyChina'sAutomotiveIndustry美、欧、日CO2减排总体目标：TotalCO2reductiontargetsforU.S.,EuropeandJapan:美国：2016年目标为127g/kmU.S.:2016target–127g/km欧洲：2020年目标为95g/kmEurope:2020target–95g/km日本：2020年目标为115.5g/kmJapan:2020target:115.5g/km中国：2020与国际先进水平接轨120g/km？China:Toattaininternationalstandardof120g/kmby2020?EuropeU.S.Japan(ActualValuesin2004)(ActualValues)(Year)5以满足《乘用车燃料消耗量限值》第二阶段作为最低要求（门槛），高于此值不能上市销售Minimumrequirement(threshold)tomeetPhase2oftheLimitsonFuelConsumptionforPassengerSedans;passengersedanscannotbesoldiftheyexceedthesaidvalue同时制定了各车型车队平均油耗的目标值。第三阶段目标值比第二阶段要求平均下降20%。Atargetvaluewasestablishedwithrespecttotheaveragepetrolconsumptionofvariouscarmodelsandcarfleets.ThetargetvalueforPhase3mustbe20%lessthanthatforPhase2中国乘用车油耗法规限值46810121416187009001100130015001700190021002300250027002900整车重量(kg)油耗(L/100km)第一阶段第二阶段第三阶段目标值门槛线Threshold目标值TargetValue20%BACA0SUV中国汽车工业面临的CO2问题CO2ProblemsFacedbyChina'sAutomotiveIndustry中国乘用车新油耗法规限值LimitsunderChina'snewpassengervehiclefuelconsumptionregulationsLimitsunderChina'snewpassengervehicleoilconsumptionregulations油耗(L/100km)PetrolConsumption(L/100km)第三阶段目标值Phase3TargetValues第一阶段Phase1第二阶段Phase2WeightofAssembledVehicle(kg)6中国电动汽车发展科技计划China’sElectricVehicleDevelopmentTechnologyPlan―九五”清洁汽车行动(替代燃料)―NinthFive-YearPlan‖CleanVehicleProject(SubstituteFuel)第一阶段:1998-2002Phase1:1998-2002-LPG出租车-LPGTaxis-CNG城市客车-CNGIntra-citypassengervehicles第二阶段：2003-Phase2:2003--醇、醚、柴油、生物质等-Alcohol;ether;diesel;bio-mass,etc.2003年：2003:19万辆出租车和城市客车190,000taxisandintra-citypassengervehicles600个燃气加注站600gasfillingstations每年替代130万吨石油Replace1.3milliontonsofcrudeoilannually―十五”电动汽车重大科技专项TenthFive-YearPlan‖ElectricVehicleMajorTechnologicalProject“十一五”节能与新能源汽车项目“EleventhFive-YearPlanEnergy-SavingandNewEnergyVehicleProjectEV2001-2005，2006-2010-纯电动汽车-Purelyelectrifiedvehicle-混合动力汽车-Hybrid-powervehicle-燃料电池汽车-Fuel-cellvehicle目标：混合动力汽车实现产业化Target:Commercializationofhybrid-powervehicles纯电动汽车区域性规模应用Large-scaleregionalapplicationofelectrifiedvehicles燃料电池汽车规模化示范应用Large-scaledemonstrationoffuel-cellvehicleapplication形成电机、电池、燃料电池和控制系统等关键零部件的产业链Toformanindustrychainconsistingofkeycomponentpartssuchaselectricmotors;batteries;fuel-cellandcontrolsystems科技奥运新能源汽车示范DemonstrationProjectforNew-EnergyVehiclesforTechnologicalOlympicGames科技世博新能源汽车示范DemonstrationProjectforNew-EnergyVehiclesforTechnologicalWorldExpo“十城千辆”行动计划“TenCities;ThousandVehicles‖ActionPlan北京和上海等13个城市先行Inauguratedin13citiesincludingBeijingandShanghai7燃料电池汽车Fuel-cellvehicles混合动力汽车Hybrid-powervehicles纯电动汽车Electrifiedvehicles动力电池系统PowerBatterySystem电机驱动系统MotorDrivingSystem能源管理模块EnergyManagementModule燃料电池发动机Fuel-CellEngines整车标定和匹配StandardizationandMatchingofAssembledVehicles燃料电池整车技术AssemblyTechnologyforFuel-CellVehiclesDC/DC变换器DC/DCConverter整车标定和匹配StandardizationandMatchingofAssembledVehicles纯电动车整车技术AssemblyTechnologyforElectrifiedVehicles电动汽车关键零部件工业KeyComponentPartsIndustryforElectricVehicles政策、法规、标准、基础设施研究StudiesonPolicies;Laws&Regulations;StandardsandInfrastructuralFacilities发动机和传动Engines&Transmissions整车标定和匹配StandardizationandMatchingofAssembledVehicles混合动力整车技术AssemblyTechnologyforHybrid-PowerVehicles机电耦合技术ElectromechanicalCouplingTechnologyISA/ISG技术ISA/ISGTechnology三纵三横的研发布局(十五期间)―ThreeVerticalandThreeHorizontal‖Research&Development中国新能源汽车研发进展ProgressofResearch&DevelopmentinNew-EnergyVehiclesinChina能源管理模块EnergyManagementModule能源管理模块EnergyManagementModule多能源动力总成控制系统Multi-EnergyPowertrainControlSystems电机驱动系统MotorDrivingSystem电机驱动系统MotorDrivingSystem电机驱动系统和控制单元MotorDriveSystemsandControlUn