第2章+规划与决策

于华[e-mail]北京2017.09第2章规划与决策Learningobjective•Explaintheimportanceofplanning•Identifymissions•Explaintherolesofgoalsandobjectives•Identifystrategies•Definethedifferenttypesofforecasting•DiscusssomestrategiesformanagingtechnologyPlanningandForecastingManagementFunctionsPlanningOrganizingLeadingControllingDecisionMaking夫未战而庙算胜者，得算多也；未战而庙算不胜者，得算少也。多算胜少算，而况于无算乎！吾以此观之，胜负见矣。—孙子夫れ未だ戦わずして廟算［びょうさん］して勝つ者は、算を得ること多ければなり。未だ戦わずして廟算して勝たざる者は、算を得ること少なければなり。算多きは勝ち、算少なきは勝たず。而るを況や算なきに於いてをや。吾れ此れを以てこれを観るに、勝負見［あら］わる。—孫子Thegeneralwhowinsabattlemakesmanycalculationsinhistemplebeforethebattleisfought.Thegeneralwholosesabattlemakesbutfewcalculationsbeforehand.Thusdomanycalculationsleadtovictory,andfewcalculationstodefeat;howmanymoredonocalculationsatall!ItisbyattentiontothispointthatIcanforeseewhoislikelytowinorlose.—HsunTzuImportanceofPlanningそいしか•Planningprovides–amethodofidentifyingobjectivesand–designingasequenceofprogramsandactivitiestoachievetheseobjectives•Decidinginadvancewhattodo,howtodoit,whentodoit,andwhoistodoit•车到山前必有路？船到桥头自然直（沉）？Importanceofplanning(Cont.)Attemptstostartnewbusiness•Onesuccessinten•TheoddsaremuchpoorerfornewideasProfessorJung-HoonChunandProfessorAlexanderd'Arbeloff,MIT•CompanyBirthsandDeaths:–1995:594,000births&497,000deaths(16%)–2002:580,900births&576,200deaths(0.8%)–2005:670,058births&599,333deaths(10.5%)•AttritionRateofNew-ProductIdeas(Forevery11seriousideas):–3enterdevelopment–1.3arelaunched–1succeedsTheBusinessPlanFunnel•BusinessPlanReceived(600)•Listentopresentation(60)•Visit(20)•DueDiligence/Negotiation(12)•Investment(3)•哀鸿遍野！•天使投资人=angel？•还是3“F”？Family、FriendsandFools?CausesofNewProductFailureCausesofNewProductFailure对一个产品而言，前三项约占80%Perilouspathtonewbusiness•Usingtechnologysuperiorityalone•Lackofunderstandinginadditionalcapabilities•Product/servicenotfillingunmetcustomerneed•Underestimatingcompetition•UnabletonurturethenewbusinessFailuresnotmerelynegligence•Attributabletolackof–understandingcustomerrequirements–creatingdramaticdifferencesincurrentcapabilities–understandingadditionalcapabilities–湘鄂情？ThesuicidesquareIncreasedRiskIncreasedRiskNewTechnologyNewMarketNewProductRiskMatricesCDRiskMatrix1981Sony,Philips,MatsushitaCDRiskMatrix1985-1996Sony,Philips,MatsushitaTechnologyManagement•Strategicfocus–Chooseattractivestrategicmarketsormarketsegmentstoparticipatein.–Find“Beacons”inselectedmarketsandmarketsegments.–Identifycorecompetenciesneededtoaddressproducts,marketsandapplications.–Planaproduct,market,application/competencysuccessionstrategy.•Businessprocess–Product:Whatwesupplytoaddvalue.–Market:Whowesupplythevalueto.–Application:Howcustomersusetheproducttorealizevalue.WhycreateaBusinessPlan?Foryouasacompanymanager,it…•Communicatesyourstrategicdirection•Communicatesyourtactics•Communicatesyourobjectives•Communicatesyourdepartment’sobjectives•Communicatesyourbudgetrequirements•Providesforcommonagreement&buy-in•ProvidescommonlanguageVisionCEO&BODStrategiesAllManagersTactics&ObjectivesAllEmployeesActionsOperations24months1-12months1-18months#1Reason:FortheTeam…•Mostimportantly,foryou&yourteam–Theactualprocessofplanningisthekey.•Itconsolidatesmanagementdirection.•Itprovidesdebate&finallyconsensus.–It’saguidewhenspeedbumpshappen.–It’syourcompany&personalscorecard.NoBusinessPlan,No–Largercorporations•Plansarethefoundationofyourbudgeting•Businessplansarethekeystoyourobjectives–Smallercompanies•Plansarethefoundationforoutsideinvestors–Privateangels–Venturecapitalists–Corporateinvestors&strategicpartners–BanksPlanning/decision-makingprocessRecognizetheproblemoropportunityDefineproblem,specifypremisesandconstraintsOverallmission,long-rangeobjectives,andstrategyFormulatevalue(decision)modelGatherinformationFormulate/developalternativesEvaluatealternativesImplementbestalternativesFollowupandrevieweffectiveness(feedback)somedistinctionsbetweenstrategyandsystems=48490§ion=1企业使命与战略目标•有一位首领带着三个部落里的壮士上山去猎狐狸，远远的已看到狐狸的身影。•首领问第一个人：“你看到了什么？”第一个人答“我看到了松鼠、狐狸和一大片的森林”，首领摇头，又问第二个人。“我看到了松鼠和狐狸”，首领再度摇头。“我只看到了狐狸”，第三个人说，首领高兴的说“答对了！•这个故事告诉我们有了明确的目标，才会为行动指出正确的方向，才会在实现目标的道路上少走弯路•目标企业使命与战略的关系企业使命为企业发展指明方向战略制定的前提企业使命是企业战略的行动基础引自哈尔滨工业大学王铁男没有明确企业的使命，企业会有怎样的命运？•案例–百龙矿泉壶曾在20世纪90年代初期喧嚣一时，由于企业发展势头强劲，更多的企业开始生产矿泉壶，矿泉壶市场竞争加剧。–意想不到的是，消费者的兴趣发生了变化――想得到比矿泉壶更好的净化水的产品。然而，百龙公司的管理者们并没有察觉到这个变化，等到感觉到这个变化时，百龙已经陨落了。–百龙总裁孙寅贵在企业失败后所写的《总裁的检讨》一书中，回忆到：“我那时给企业定位是‘生产矿泉壶’的行业，现在来看，其实我的企业本质是在‘生产矿泉水’。如果我能早些认识到我是生产‘水’的行业，而不是生产‘壶’的行业，我就可能会是中国最早的矿泉水公司了。StrategicplanningVision/MissionAlignedtowardmeetingcustomerexpectationsandwithinframeworkoforganization’sphilosophySWOTAnalysisGapAnalysisStrategicIssuesForecastingOngoingStrategicPlanning,GoalsObjectives,StrategiesBroad&NarrowDefinitionBroaddefinitionNarrowdefinitionBeveragesChildren’sproductsFurnitureGlobalmaildeliveryTravel&TourismSoftdrinksToysWroughtironlawnfurnitureOvernightpackagedeliveryShipcruisesintheCaribbeanExamplesofmission•EastmanChemicalCompany•Vision(2005):TobetheWorld’sPreferredChemicalCompany•EastmanIndustriesLimited–Vision(2013):Ea