全球生物乙醇发展现状-可能影响与我国的对策分析

全球生物乙醇发展现状可能影响与我国的对策分析吴伟光1,2,仇焕广1,黄季焜1(1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所农业政策研究中心,北京100101;2.浙江林学院经济管理学院,浙江临安311300):近年来,全球各国出于加强能源安全减少温室气体排放和促进农业发展等多方面的考虑,积极鼓励生物液体燃料发展随着生物乙醇发展规模的迅速扩大,其发展对农产品价格粮食安全与环境等方面的影响开始凸显,并引起了各国政府和学术界的广泛关注本文以全球生物乙醇发展为考察对象,在分析全球主要国家生物乙醇发展现状目标与激励政策以及生物乙醇生产主要原料与技术现状的基础上,重点探讨了生物乙醇发展对农产品价格与环境等方面的可能影响,并提出了为应对生物乙醇发展可能造成的负面影响,我国应采取的政策措施:生物乙醇;发展现状;经济与环境影响;政策建议:TK6:A:1002-9753(2009)03-0023-08Bio-ethanolDevelopment:Currentstatus,PotentialImpactsandPolicySuggestionsforChinaWUWei-guang1,2,QIUHuan-guang1,HUANGJi-kun1(1.CenterforChineseAgriculturalPolicy,InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalRecoursesResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China;2.DepartmentofEconomicsandManagement,ZhejiangForestryUniversity,Linan311300,China)Abstract:Theglobaldevelopmentofbio-ethanolhasbeenacceleratinginthelastfewyearsduetotheconcernsforenergysecurity,greenhousegasemission,andruraldevelopment.However,withtheexpansionoffirstgenerationbio-ethanol(grainbased),itsimpactsonfoodprice,foodsecurityandenvironmentstarttoloomlarger,andhasbeendrawingmanydebates.Thispaperreviewedthecurrentdevelopmentofbio-ethano,ltargets,andincentivepoliciesinmajorbio-ethanolproductioncountries.Basedonthecurrentfeedstockdemandandprocessingtechnologiesofbio-ethano,lthepaperanalyzeditspotentialimpactsonagriculturalpricesandenvironment.Withtheexpectationthattheglobalbio-ethanolproductionwillstillcontinueinthenextfollowingyearsandbringpressureforagriculturalprices,wediscussedthepoliciesthatChinasgovernmentshouldadopttomeetthechallengesofbio-ethanoldevelopment.Keywords:bio-ethano;lcurrentstatus;priceandenvironmentaleffects;policysuggestions:2008-11-26:2009-03-03:(08JA790120)(07BJY062)(70741034/70603036):(1972-),,,,,:23全球生物乙醇发展现状可能影响与我国的对策分析,,(),2000452,200713126[1](),,,,[2],,,,(一)全球生物乙醇发展的总体态势2070,,200111975-2007[1]19751.5,20004520012007,,30%,2007131,20003,,80%,2007133(4.4),,,(二)主要国家生物乙醇发展目标现状与政策1.主要国家生物乙醇发展目标,,,,2006,17[1]112012132;2022350201295,201611520105.75%;202010%(80%),2010400(13);2020400(33),,20105%,200710%,,20085%;201010%,:0.79/,1=3.785:://中国软科学2009年第3期,;,,,[3]2.主要国家生物乙醇发展现状与政策,,(1),200758,25%20071,2012132,2017350OECDFAO2007-2016!,20161.1,32%[4],[5]:(1),51,,54(2)(incometaxcredit)1990,3000,102005!,,6000(3),,(2),1970,∀#(NationalFuelAlcoholProgram)30,,,,,100%22%-25%200748,201295,2016115,,∀#,[6]:(1),(2)1980-1985,20,29%(3),(3),,[7]2001504,130(4.4),2007,20(0.7),2008,910%∃2007,133(4.4),400∃510%,976510%25全球生物乙醇发展现状可能影响与我国的对策分析2005!,,2007!,20201000(33),20(0.7),[8]:(1)(10%)5%;(2)(17%);(3),200713702006-2007,,∀#∀#,(三)对各国生物乙醇发展目标的简要评述,,,,,,Yangeta.l(2008)[9],,[10],,∀202010%#;,,3,;,∀#[11]:,,;,,;,,,,[12-14],,,[2,14],,,22,,,;,,,,2(/)(/)(/)5.292.821.871:1.3063.9713.314.811:9.019.57.52.871:1.356015.33.921:1.65102.54.001:10:!,,,26中国软科学2009年第3期(),,,,(),,,,[2,16](一)生物乙醇发展对农产品价格的影响,,,,[12],,,;,,,,,()(IMF),200721.6%,,42.6%34.4%33.3%[17],2025860,,13%6%30%[18](IMPACT),,30%[19](二)生物乙醇发展对环境的影响,,∃,1,Shapourietal(1995,2002),,,1,,,19941.2420011.34[20-21]Macedoeta.l(2004),,8.310.2,,,2.6-2.7[22]Nguyen(2008),E10(10%),,E10,6.3%;[23],,,,Pimenteleta.l(2003,2005),,,[13],Youngquist(1997)Patzek(2004),∃;27全球生物乙醇发展现状可能影响与我国的对策分析[2],FargioneSearchingerScience!,,,,,[24-25]:,();,;,,,[26](一)发达国家发展生物乙醇的趋势将不会逆转,对未来农产品价格上涨产生持续的压力,;,,,,,,,,,,(二)我国应充分利用∀边际性#土地资源相对丰富的优势,重点发展∀非粮#生物乙醇原料,实现生物乙醇生产原料多元化,,,,,∀#,,,,[27-30],734.39,667.43[31],,201220%,202050%,2012129,500;2020∀#322,1200,5700,15%-20%,,(三)我国应加强∀非粮#能源原料品种选育和加工关键技术研发,为我国生物乙醇发展提供技术支撑,,,,,,,[32]28中国软科学2009年第3期,,[33],∀#,,∀#,,,,∀#,,,,,:[1]EarthPolicyInstitute.WorldEthanolProductionandWorldBiodieselProduction[EB].[2]Rajagopa,lDeepak,DavidZilberman.ReviewofEnvironmenta,lEconomicandPolicyAspectsofBiofuels,PolicyResearch[R].WorkingPaper4341,2007.[3].[R].2007,,2007.[4]OECD(OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment)andFAO(FoodandAgricultureOrganization).AgriculturalOutlook2007-2016[M].2007.Availableat:[5]Pelkmans,Luc.BiofuelintheUnitedStates[R].ReportwithinPREMIAWP2:Internationalactivitiesonalternativemotorfuels,2005.[6]Pousa,GabriellaP.A.G.,Andre,L.F.Santos,PauloA.Z.Suarez.HistoryandPolicyofBiodieselinBrazil[J].EnergyPolicy,2007,(35):5393-5398.[7].[R].,2007.7-14.[8],,,.[J].,2007,23(9):276-282.[9]YangJ.,H.Qiu,J.Huang,andS.Rozelle.FightingGlobalFoodPriceRisesintheDevelopingWorld,AgriculturalEconomics[J].Forthcoming,2008.[10][EB].[11]Hecht,AlanD.SustainableProductionofBiofuel[R].PapersubmittedatChina-USWorkshopBio-energyConsequencesforGlobalEnvironmentalChange.Beijing,China.Nov.2008.[12]Brown,LesterR.DistilleryDemandforGraintoFuelCarsVastlyUnderstated:WorldMayBeFacingHighestGrainPricesinHistory[R].ReportofEarthPolicyInstitute,WashingtonDC,2007.[13]Pimente,lDavid,TadW.Patzek.EthanolProductionUsingCorn,Switchgrass,andWood;BiodieselProductionUsingSoybeanandSunflower[J].NaturalResourcesRese