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1|1管理学原理第六次课作为决策者的管理者对外经贸大学国际商学院何文龙2015-2016学年秋季学期1|2•Describetheeightstepsinthedecision-makingprocess•Explainthefourwaysmanagersmakedecisions•Classifydecisionsanddecision-makingconditions•Describedifferentstylesofdecision-making,anddiscusshowbiasesaffectthedecision-makingprocesses•Identifyeffectivedecision-makingtechniquesLearningobjectives1|3•Decision-makingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.•Problem-anobstaclethatmakesitdifficulttoachieveadesiredgoalorpurpose.什么是决策？1|4决策制定的流程是什么？1|5Step1:IdentifyingaProblem•CharacteristicsofProblems–Aproblembecomesaproblemwhenamanagerbecomesawareofit.–Thereispressuretosolvetheproblem.–Themanagermusthavetheauthority,information,orresourcesneededtosolvetheproblem.1|6Step2:IdentifyingDecisionCriteria•Decisioncriteriaarefactorsthatareimportant(relevant)toresolvingtheproblem,suchas:–Coststhatwillbeincurred(investmentsrequired)–Riskslikelytobeencountered(chanceoffailure)–Outcomesthataredesired(growthofthefirm)1|7Step2:IdentifyingDecisionCriteriaExample:1|8Step3:AllocatingWeightstotheCriteria•Decisioncriteriaarenotofequalimportance:–Assigningaweighttoeachitemplacestheitemsinthecorrectpriorityorderoftheirimportanceinthedecision-makingprocess.1|9Step4:DevelopingAlternatives•Identifyingviablealternatives–Alternativesarelisted(withoutevaluation)thatcanresolvetheproblem.1|10Step4:DevelopingAlternativesExample:1|11Step5:AnalyzingAlternatives•Appraisingeachalternative’sstrengthsandweaknesses–Analternative’sappraisalisbasedonitsabilitytoresolvetheissuesrelatedtothecriteriaandcriteriaweight.1|12Step5:AnalyzingAlternativesExample:1|13Step6:SelectinganAlternative•Choosingthebestalternative–Thealternativewiththehighesttotalweightischosen.1|14Step7:ImplementingtheAlternative•Puttingthechosenalternativeintoaction-Conveyingthedecisiontoandgainingcommitmentfromthosewhowillcarryoutthealternative1|15Step8:EvaluatingDecisionEffectiveness•Thesoundnessofthedecisionisjudgedbyitsoutcomes.–Howeffectivelywastheproblemresolvedbyoutcomesresultingfromthechosenalternatives?–Iftheproblemwasnotresolved,whatwentwrong?1|16经理人经常决策的事宜1|17理性决策•RationalDecision-Making-describeschoicesthatarelogicalandconsistentwhilemaximizingvalue.•BoundedRationality-decisionmakingthat’srational,butlimited(bounded)byanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformation.•Satisfice-acceptingsolutionsthatare“goodenough.”1|18制定决策：直觉的作用•Intuitivedecision-making–Makingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgment.1|19什么是直觉？1|20问题的类型•StructuredProblems-straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedproblems.•UnstructuredProblems-problemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.1|21程序化决策•ProgrammedDecision-arepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.•Non-programmedDecisions-uniqueandnonrecurringdecisionsthatrequireacustom-madesolution.1|22程序化决策•Procedure-aseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetoapplyapolicyinresponsetoastructuredproblem.•Rule-anexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdo.•Policy-ageneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem.1|23程序化决策vs.非程序化决策1|24制定决策的条件•Certainty–asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativechoiceisknown.•Risk–asituationinwhichthemanagerisabletoestimatethelikelihood(probability)ofoutcomesthatresultfromthechoiceofparticularalternatives.1|25风险情况下的期望收益1|26不确定情况下的决策•Limitedinformationpreventsestimationofoutcomeprobabilitiesforalternatives.•Limitedinformationforcesmanagerstorelyonintuition,hunches,and“gutfeelings”.•Maximax:theoptimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoff.•Maximin:thepessimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoff.•Minimax:themanager’schoicetominimizemaximumregret.1|27举例：收益矩阵1|28举例：遗憾矩阵1|29决策风格•LinearThinkingStyle-aperson’stendencytouseexternaldata/facts;thehabitofprocessinginformationthroughrational,logicalthinking.•NonlinearThinkingStyle-aperson’spreferenceforinternalsourcesofinformation;amethodofprocessingthisinformationwithinternalinsights,feelings,andhunches.1|30制定决策时的偏见和错误1|31制定决策时的偏见和错误•Heuristics-using“rulesofthumb”tosimplifydecisionmaking.•OverconfidenceBias-holdingunrealisticallypositiveviewsofoneselfandone’sperformance.•ImmediateGratificationBias-choosingalternativesthatofferimmediaterewardsandavoidimmediatecosts.1|32•AnchoringEffect-fixatingoninitialinformationandignoringsubsequentinformation.•SelectivePerceptionBias-selecting,organizingandinterpretingeventsbasedonthedecisionmaker’sbiasedperceptions.•ConfirmationBias-seekingoutinformationthatreaffirmspastchoiceswhilediscountingcontradictoryinformation.制定决策时的偏见和错误1|33•FramingBias-selectingandhighlightingcertainaspectsofasituationwhileignoringotheraspects.•AvailabilityBias-losingdecision-makingobjectivitybyfocusingonthemostrecentevents.•RepresentationBias-drawinganalogiesandseeingidenticalsituationswhennoneexist.•RandomnessBias-creatingunfoundedmeaningoutofrandomevents.制定决策时的偏见和错误1|34制定决策时的偏见和错误•SunkCostsErrors-forgettingthatcurrentactionscannotinfluencepasteventsandrelateonlytofutureconsequences.•Self-ServingBias-ta