中国投资与消费的不平衡及其对经济增长的影响研究

华中科技大学博士学位论文中国投资与消费的不平衡及其对经济增长的影响研究姓名：何刚申请学位级别：博士专业：西方经济学指导教师：徐长生20090523I200830R&D30IIOLS1953-2008GrangerGrangerGrangerIIIAbstractTherelationshipbetweeninvestmentandconsumptionisveryimportantinmacroeconomics.Thecoordinationofthemimpactonboththemacroeconomicstabilityandsustainabilityofthelongruneconomicgrowth.Governmentsarepaycloseattentiontothesituationofinvestmentandconsumptionintheircountryanddesignpoliciestoensurethebalancedgrowthbetweeninvestmentandconsumption.TherelationshipofinvestmentandconsumptioninChinahasraisedlotsofdebate.ManyscholarsbelievethathighinvestmentrateandlowconsumptionrateexistsinChina.Inrecentyears,especiallyaftertheoutbreakoftheinternationalfinancialcrisisin2008,theunbalanceofinvestmentandconsumptionhasfurtherintensified.So,ithasastrongtheoreticalandpracticalsignificancetoinquirethecausesandfuturesustainabilityofChina'srapideconomicgrowthinthecontextofinvestmentandconsumptionunbalance.Thisdissertationtakestheunbalanceofinvestmentandconsumptionandits’impactsoneconomicgrowthinChinaastheresearchobject,andsetsuptheresearchframeworkoftheissuesrelatedtotheunbalancedgrowthofinvestmentandconsumptioninthetransitionperiodinaccordancewiththestepsofraisingquestions,thetheoreticalmodelanalysis,quantitativeanalysis,empiricalanalysisandconclusions.Itanalyzestheissuesrelatedtotheunbalancedgrowthofinvestmentandconsumptionfromtheperspectiveoftheoryandempirience.Thedetailsareasfollows:Firstly,thedissertationsurveysthetheoreticalliteraturesontherelationshipbetweeninvestmentandconsumption,andreviewsthedevelopmentofChina’sinvestmentandconsumptionintheprocessofreformandopeningupinthepastthreedecades,andcompareswithothercountries’inthecorrespondingdevelopmentstages.ItfindsthatthegrowthofinvestmentandconsumptioninChinahasbeenunbalanced,theinvestmentrateisrelativelyhighmeanwhiletheconsumptionrateisrelativelylow.Accordingtothetraditionaleconomictheory,theeconomywithsuchfeaturesisimpossibletomaintainlong-termrapidgrowth.However,Chinadidit.ThedissertationmademodelbasedonthecharacteristicsintransitionalChinatoIVexplainthereasonofChina'srapideconomicgrowthinthecontextofinvestmentandconsumptionunbalance.Thetestresultsshowthattheinvestmentefficiencyisrelativelyhighinthepast30yearsbecausetheinputofhumancapitalandR&D.TheanalysisoftheChina’seconomicmodelshowsthatthereasonofChina'srapideconomicgrowthinthecontextofinvestmentandconsumptionunbalanceisincludethelargeinvestment,inputofhumancapitalandR&D,highinvestmentefficiency,raisedtechnologylevelandbetterinstitutionalenvironment.Secondly,thedissertationanalyzedthereasonoftheraiseofinvestmentefficiencyandrelativelyslowgrowthrateofconsumption.ItstudiestheinternalstructureofChina'sinvestmentandconsumption.Theanalysisontheproductiveefficiencyandregionaldisparitiesofpubliccapitalandprivatecapitalshowsthat,theoutputelasticityofprivatecapitalislargerthanthatofpubliccapital,andthecoefficientsoftheoutputelasticityofprivatecapitalarepositiveandsignificantmeanwhilethatofpubliccapitalarerelativelyinsignificant.So,thegovernmentneedstotakevariousmeasurestoencourageandgivefullplaytoprivatecapitalineconomicgrowth.Andthen,thedissertationstudiesthesubstitutioneffectofpublicconsumptiononprivateconsumptionandtheresultshowsthatChina'spublicexpenditurehasacertaindegreeofcrowding-outeffectonprivateconsumption.Inthebackdropofthecurrentfinancialcrisis,weshouldfocusontheprivateconsumptionintheperiodofstimulatingconsumptiondemand.Thirdly,itstudiesthedynamicrelationshipsamongconsumption,investmentandeconomicgrowthinChina,usingtheVARmodelandthesampledatain1953-2008,andsystematicallyanalyzesthemechanismamongtheconsumption,investmentandeconomicgrowthusingimpulseresponsefunction,Grangercausalitytest,variancedecompositionmodel.Theresultsshowthat,thereisthestrongthecurrentperiodcorrelationbetweeneconomicgrowthrateandinvestmentrate,approximatesymmetryandsimilarfluctuationspatternintheimpactrelationship.Andthereexiststhestablerelationshipandbetweeneconomicgrowthrateandinvestmentrate.Thevolatilitymodelofconsumptionrateisoppositetothetwovariablesabovementioned.EconomicgrowthisGrangercauseoftheinvestmentrateandconsumptionrate,notviceversa.Meanwhile,thereexiststwo-waysVGrangercausalrelationshipbetweeninvestmentrateandconsumptionrate.Inordertoenhancetheoutputeffectofinvestment,thegovernmentshouldimprovetheinvestmentstructure,strengthentheguidanceofloanablefunds,themacroeconomicpoliciesshouldfocusonstimulatingconsumption.Finally,itsummarizesthecauseoftheunbalancedgrowthofinvestmentandconsumption.China'shighinvestmentrateisprimarilyduetotransitionalperiod.China'slowconsumptionrateismainlyduetoincreasingincomedistributiondisparity,imperfectfinancialmarketsaswellastheuncertainfactorsofincomeandexpenditureetc.AuthorbelievesthattheunbalancedgrowthofinvestmentandconsumptioninChinadidnotsignificantlyaffecttherapideconomicgrowthinthepastthreedecades,butthehistoricalexperienceoftheothercountrieshasshownthatthisunbalancewillaffectthesustainabilityofChina'srapideconomicgrowthinthefuture.Intheend,authorputsforwardtothecorre