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菜鸟驿站经营人持续合作意愿的研究I摘要快递末端配送一直是快递行业需要解决的一个大问题，末端配送距离最短，但是耗费的成本最高。近年来，各种自提柜和自提点的出现大大缓解了快递末端配送的难题，特别是以菜鸟驿站为代表的自提点的出现，大大方便了顾客提取快递，解决了快递配送与顾客时间不匹配的问题。国内学术界对菜鸟驿站为代表的自提点也有相当多的研究，但是从菜鸟驿站经营人持续合作意愿入手的研究非常少。本文首先对过往的文献进行了回顾，积累了学术基础，并就影响自提点经营人持续合作意愿的因素进行了具体分析和归纳总结。随后，设计了调查问卷通过问卷星网站对462个菜鸟驿站经营人的持续合作意愿进行了调查，最后通过二项Logistic模型回归找到了各自变量与经营人持续合作意愿之间的关系，在总共29个自变量中，只有8个自变量的回归系数在10%以下置信水平显著，而二元Logistic模型回归预测正确率达到了86.1%，能够解释自变量与因变量结果56.7%的信息，说明这8个自变量对于经营人持续合作意愿具有显著的影响，并针对这8个变量进行了具体分析给出了本文的结论。关键词：菜鸟驿站；持续合作意愿；调查问卷；二项Logistic模型IIAbstractDeliveryenddistributionhasbeenCourierindustryneedtosolveabigproblem,terminaldistributionshortestdistance,butthehighestcost.Inrecentyears,theemergenceofallkindsofthecontainerandtothepointgreatlyeasetheexpressdeliveryattheendoftheproblem,especiallyrepresentedbynovicestationtothepoint,greatlyfacilitatethecustomerstoextractexpressdelivery,expressdeliverytimewithcustomersissolvedtheproblemofmatchingthe.Representedbythedomesticacademiccirclestothenovicestationsincesomealsohavequitealotofresearch,butfromanovicestationoperatorcontinuedcooperationintentionoftheresearchisverylittle.Thisarticlefirstreviewedthepastliterature,accumulatedacademicfoundation,andtheinfluencetothedotoperatorcontinuedcooperationintentionfactorhascarriedonthedetailedanalysisandsumup.Then,designedthequestionnairebyquestionnairesfromthe462rookieoftheoperatorstationwillcontinuecooperation,atlast,bythebinomialLogisticregressionmodeltofindtheirrelationshipbetweenthevariablesandtheoperatorcontinuouscooperationintention,inatotalof29arguments,onlyeightindependentvariablesofregressioncoefficientsunder10%confidencelevelsignificantly,andbinaryLogisticregressionpredictionaccuracyreached86.1%,canexplaintheindependentvariableanddependentvariableresults,56.7%oftheinformationthattheeightindependentvariablesfortheoperatorcontinuedcooperationwillhavesignificanteffect,andgivesadetailedanalysisfortheeightvariablesoftheconclusionofthispaperisgiven.Keywords:novicestation;Continuedcooperationintention;Thequestionnaire;BinomialLogisticmodelIII目录摘要............................................................................................................................IAbstract.........................................................................................................................II目录..........................................................................................................................III第一章绪论..................................................................................错误!未定义书签。第一节研究背景及现状.......................................................错误!未定义书签。第二节研究目的及意义.......................................................错误!未定义书签。第三节研究方法与思路.......................................................错误!未定义书签。第四节研究创新点...............................................................错误!未定义书签。第二章文献综述..........................................................................................................5第一节快递末端配送现状研究...........................................................................5第二节顾客自提模式现状研究...........................................................................6第三节以菜鸟驿站为代表的自提点研究现状...................................................7第四节文献评述...................................................................................................8第三章影响自提点经营人持续合作的理论猜想....................................................10第一节菜鸟驿站经营人是否持续合作的影响因素.........................................10第二节各类影响因素的归纳分析.....................................................................11第四章影响因素实证检验........................................................................................13第一节测量变量.................................................................................................13一、自变量选取............................................................................................13二、因变量选取............................................................................................14三、问卷形成................................................................................................14第二节数据收集与处理.....................................................................................15第三节模型的选择及构建.................................................................................16第四节模型验证及结果分析.............................................................................17一、数据的描述性统计分析........................................................................17二、回归变量数据处理................................................................................37三、二项Logistic模型回归分析................................................................40IV四、回归结果解释........................................................................................41第五章结论与启示....................................................................................................44第一节主要结论.................................................................................................44第二节研究局限及展望.....................................................................................44参考文献..........................