罗宾斯管理学决策

EleventheditionSTEPHENP.ROBBINSMARYCOULTER规划与决策Planning&DecisionMakingChapter3-26–2Definition-决策•Decision-Makingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.在两个或多个选项中作出选择Lowleveltohighlevelmanagersmakedecisions.Allorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsthataffecttheirjobsandorganizationtheyworkfor.6–3Universalityofdecisionmaking•Managersatalllevelsmakedecisions，butparticularlyimportanttomanagers•Decisionmakingispartofallfourmanagerialfunctions-Planning,Organizing,Leading,andControlling•Makingdecisionsistheessenceofthemanagement.•ManagersarecalleddecisionmakersHowdoyoumakedecisions?•入学考试面试题：为何考上海大学？考进了大学你准备做什么？未来的职业设想是什么？•你们的回答：上海大学很美丽、很有名我要认真学习，考证书？？？7–4决策常见的问题•片面•短见•感性•即刻满足•前后矛盾短期决策与长期目标不一致等等7–5Howdomanagersmakedecisions?•管理者如何作出贤明的决定？7–66–7Contents1.EightStepsintheDecision-MakingProcess2.ThreeWaysManagersMakeDecisions3.DecisionsandDecision-MakingConditions4.Decision-MakingStylesandhowbiasesaffectdecisionmaking5.Challengesfordecisionmakers(add.)EffectiveDecisionMakingTechniques6.SituationsofdecisionmakingChapter3Whatarethegeneralfactorsaffectingmanagers’decisionmaking?影响决策的因素1.Process2.Approaches3.Typesofdecisions4.Conditions5.Managers6.Objectives7.ErrorsandBiases7–87–91.TheDecision-MakingProcess•决策过程7–10Exhibit7–1TheDecision-MakingProcessP179TheDecision-MakingProcessincludesEightstepsfromidentifyingaproblemtoevaluatingthedecisioneffectiveness出处：罗宾斯《管理学》13e决策过程•Source:•RobertN.Lussier•Concepts,Applications,SkillDevelopment•4e7–116–122.TheWaysManagersMakingDecisions•管理者的决策方法6–132.1RationalDecisionMakingapproach理性决策DAssumptionsofRationalityManagersmakeconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints.Assumptionstodecisionmakers:TheyAreperfectlyrational,fullyobjective,andlogical.明确目标，彻底逻辑，完全理性Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives.清晰界定问题和全部选项Haveaclearandspecificgoal明确具体目标Willselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganization’sinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests.满足组织最大利益6–142.2BoundedRationalityDMApproach有限理性决策DBoundedRationality（有限理性）Decisionmakingthat’srational,butarelimited(bounded)byanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfied—choosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem—ratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest.Ex:TofindajobMostdecisionsthatmanagersmakedon’tfittheassumptionsofperfectrationality,sotheysatisfice7–156–16后期决策受前期决策影响BoundedRationality（有限理性）BoundedrationaldecisionmakinginfluencedbyOrganization’sculture,internalpolitics,powerconsiderations,andEscalationofcommitment（承诺升级）:anincreasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong.Ex:Challengerspaceshuttledisaster6–172.3IntuitiveDecision-makingapproach直觉决策TheRoleofIntuition•Intuitivedecisionmaking（直觉决策）Ismakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgment.6–18Exhibit7–6WhatisIntuition?FiveDifferentAspectsofIntuitionSource:BasedonL.A.BurkeandM.K.Miller,“TakingtheMysteryOutofIntuitiveDecisionMaking,”AcademyofManagementExecutive,October1999,pp.91–99.P184潜意识决策情感决策认知决策经验决策价值道德决策直觉7–193TypesofDecisionsandDecision-MakingConditions决策类型与决策条件7–203.1TypesofProblems&Decisions问题类型与决策类型①StructuredProblemsProgrammedDecision②UnstructuredProblemsNonprogrammedDecision6–213.1TypesofDecisions①StructuredProblemsandProgrammedDecisions•StructuredProblems结构性问题Definition:Straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedproblems直接、熟悉并容易界定的问题Involvegoalsthatclear.Arefamiliar(haveoccurredbefore).Areeasilyandcompletelydefined—informationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete.Example:aserverinarestaurantspillsadrinkonacustomer’scoat•ProgrammedDecisions程序化决策Definition:Arepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.Example:Themanagerofferstohavethecoatcleanedatrestaurant’sexpense6–22(1)Programmeddecision程序化决策•Policy（政策）Ageneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem.•Procedure（程序）Aseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetorespond(applyingapolicy)toastructuredproblem.•Rule（规则）Anexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdo.6–23Example-Policy,Procedure,andRule•Policy（政策）Acceptallcustomer-returnedmerchandise.•Procedure（程序）Followallstepsforcompletingmerchandisereturndocumentation.•Rules（规则）Managersmustapproveallrefundsover$50.00.Nocreditpurchasesarerefundedforcash.6–24ProblemsandDecisions(cont’d)②UnstructuredProblemsandNonprogrammedDecisions•UnstructuredProblems结构不良问题Definition:Problemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.Problemsthatwillrequirecustom-madesolutions.•NonprogrammedDecisions非程序化决策Definition:Auniqueandnonrecurringdecisionthatrequiresacustom-madesolution唯一的和不可重复的决策。Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses.7–25Exhibit7–7ProgrammedversusNonprogrammedDecisionsP1877–263.2Decision-MakingConditions决策制定条件•Certainty（确定性）Definition:Asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativechoiceisknown.Example:wheretodepositmone