老府河水污染控制方案多属性决策研究

华中科技大学硕士学位论文老府河水污染控制方案多属性决策研究姓名：吴华军申请学位级别：硕士专业：环境工程指导教师：刘年丰20060507I15AHPTOPSISVague(AHP)TOPSISFuzzyVagueTOPSISVagueIIAbstractTownshipgovernmentalongLaofuRiverdevelopslocaleconomybyintroducingchemicalcompanies,whichresultsinthewaterenvironmentdeterioration.Inordertosolvetheproblem,ourteamhasstudiedtheintegratedwaterpollutioncontrolschemeaboutLaofuRivervalley.Basedonthekeyfactorsaboutwaterpollutioncontrol,thispapersetsuptheindexsystemwhichincludesfouraspectstheinvestmentandresourcesoccupation,thefinanceandpublicsupport,thedevelopmentofindustryandagriculture,environmentalcarryingcapacityandfifteenindexes.Thispaperchoosesanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP)whichhaswidelyapplied,bettertechniquefororderpreferencebysimilaritytoidealsolutionTOPSISbasedonentropyweight,thedecisionmethodbasedonVaguesettheorywhichincludesnewideaandcomprehensiveevaluationmethodwhichbasedonthreemethodstoselecttheoptimumschemeamongfiveschemesaboutLaofuRiverwaterpollutioncontrol.Basedonthedecision-makers’contrastaboutthesignificanceoftheindex,thesequencingresultofAHPcoincideswiththedecision-makers’expectancy.Thesyntheticweightwhichsyncretizesentropyweightandsubjectiveweighsynthesizesthesubjectivityofthedecision-makers’expectancyandtheobjectivityofobtainedinformation.TheTOPSISmethodisbasedtheentropyweight,andthesequencingresultaboutschemessetismorerationalthanthatmethodwhichappliesonlyobjectiveweightorsubjectiveweigh;TheVaguesettheoryarisesfromextendinganddeveoppingtheFuzzysettheory.Throughsettingupthethresholdvaluesoftheindexesandestablishingthesupericrityrelation,theschemessethasbeenanalyzed.Thenthisdecreasesthecompensationamongtheindexes,thetinydifferenceamongtheattributeswillnotalterthesequencingresult.Thereareshortagesinvariousmultipleattributedecision-makingmethods.Foroffsettingandweakeningtheshortageofasinglemethod,themeanofthesequencingresultsofthethreedecisionmethodsisdefinedastheresultofcomprehensiveevaluation.Theresultofcomprehensiveevaluationincludesthedecision-makers’expectancyandfusestheobjectivityofthevariousindexswhichincludesvariousinformationcapacity,IIIandinacertainextenttheresultofcomprehensiveevaluationweakensthecompensationeffectamongvariousindexes.Theresultofcomprehensiveevaluationisregardedasthebasisofselection,andthisisbetterthansinglemethod.ThispaperchoosesthreeneotericdecisionmethodswhichhaveobviouscharacteristicstoanalyzeschemesaboutLaofuRiverwaterpollutioncontrol,andappliescomprehensiveevaluationmethodwhichfusesthreemethodstoselecttheoptimumscheme.Thismakestheresultscientificandrational.Thestudyisabeneficialattemptwhichappliesmoderndecisiontheorytodealwithenvironmentproblem,andoffersafeasiblemethodforgovernmenttomakedecisionscientifically.Keywordswaterpollutioncontrolmultipleattributedecision-makinganalytichierarchyprocessentropyweighttechniquefororderpreferencebysimilaritytoidealsolutionVaguesettheorycomprehensiveevaluation_____1120032004231.11.1.121-11.1.21.1.2.1118.6km21432.91.520022.530238.4km25km2180001833591120km“”2001109.64000356km23.628“”341.1.2.21-12275kw1155kw3200020001-1798946171975513573857163661.1.31-11()45t/a20043405000m32000m31000m315020052004000m3130060002()510()()()()()()()()()()82004200440032.5t/aGB3544-20011.2[1]61.31237345TOPSIS6Vague78722.12.1.1119km120m3m435m320.5m20m2()103250m1.2m1m82.4m600m200m2.1.22.1.2.1CODNH3-N71-12-12-22-11()250m()3100m()4100m()5100m()6100m()7()2-2mg/LCODNH3-NCODNH3-NCODNH3-N25.02.8041.63.2667.011.9030.92.1236.52.81155.013.5034.21.58161.01.20149.013.1033.22.1834.11.40138.013.5018.70.888.20.80104.00.3623.01.9828.31.7077.00.1424.01.5426.11.40--9GB3838-200202-3COD4.37NH3-N8COD42.9%~100%NH3-N42.9%~85.7%2-3CODNH3-NCODNH3-NCODNH3-N00.870.391.171.236.930.030.410.220.874.178.000.140.054.3703.977.730.110.450.1403.608.0000.001.9402.47000.3200.131.57000.0300--%42.985.771.442.910066.7COD30mg/LNH3-N1.5mg/L62.1.2.21000m12km2.1.310COD100%NH3-N66.7%W=365KVCs10-22-1Wt/aK0.02/dCsGB3838-2002mg/LV300mm32-42-4Csmg/LWt/aVm3CODNH3-NCODNH3-N1.052.300.114.8310.580.532.96301.56.470.3219.350.97COD19.35t/aNH3-N0.97t/a11COD1.02t/aNH3-N0.03t/aCODNH3-N16.29t/a0.91t/a2.1.42-5COD511277.89t/aNH3-N1012.06t/a2-5(t/a)(%)CODNH3NCODNH3N427.339.4632.770.9335.060.8325.66.25443.0641.622.91303.6913.351001002.21Cl-DB42/168-1999GB8979-1996GB3544-20012-62122-6mg/Lt/at/aCODNH3-NCODNH3-N25.621503.23380.83501006.12503.0675.62--883.89CODNH3-N32-72-7t/at/am3CODNH3-NCODNH3-N3.30.701.150.0610.710.566.557.170.3612.620.6510.558.320.4223.331.21132.352.3.12.20.5/t2003122.3.22.2115000m3/d7km23000m3/d15km250•m3/d•km1%2502.5/a31/t142.3.32.212155kw1.3m3/s200m22m1.5m1.5km2km4km2m1.5m22500m3230000m25000m32500m227500m332500m2400h1.3m/s3.7×106m32100A1-17100m31615.784414470/400h/a5.6130.2/t2.3.42.21152155kw1.3m3/s200m23003.37×107m3210070/300×24=7200h/a50.4330.5/t2.3.5163[2]()()()[3](ASimon)[4]MCDMMODMMADM3.1()[5-11]173.1.1MADM1mg/L2)(maxiRxxFi∈3-1xi()xiR={x1x2xm}F(xi)nfj(xi)(j=12n)xinC1C2CnFxi=[f1xif2xifnxi]T3-23.1.2MADM1VPareto1896VPareto[12]VonNeumann18Morgenstern[13-16]1957ChurchmanAckoffArnoffMADMRDLuce1964DelphiAumannJWTukeyPCFishbur