转型社会的政治决策：期权博弈与公平均衡解释

Jan.2008,Volume5,No.1(SerialNo.38)JournalofUS-ChinaPublicAdministration,ISSN1548-6591,USA1∗4100831967Rabin1993∗70471048【】1964-21SmitAnkum1993SmitTrigeorgis200414405501111152440230-1-1213Rabin1993fairnessEquilibrium1133344055011115Rabin1993ReciprocalFairnessEquilibrium3RabinRabin199344440550114134230013Rabin5[1]Smit,HanT.J.andAnkum,L.A.(1993).Arealoptionsandgame-theoreticapproachtocorporateinvestmentstrategyundercompetition.FinancialManagement.[2]Rabin,Mathew.(1993).Incorporatingfairnessintogametheoryandeconomic.TheAmericanEconomicReview.[3]Rabin,Matthew.(1996).Psychologyandeconomics.DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofCalifornia-Berkeley,WorkingPaper.RetrievedSeptember1996,from[4]Smit,HanT.J.,LenosTrigeorgis.(2004).Quantifyingthestrategicoptionvalueoftechnologyinvestments.DepartmentofFinance,ErasmusUniversity,WorkingPaper.PaperPresentedatthe8thAnnualConferenceonRealOptionsTheory,March2004.[5]Weeds,Helen.(2006).Applyingoptionsgames-whenshouldrealoptionsvaluationbeused.DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofEssex,WorkingPaper.March6,2006.[6].[C].50200211.Politicaldecisionoftransitionalsociety:AnexplanationofoptiongameandfairnessequilibriumHONGKai-rongAbstract:Inthetransitionalsociety,anypoliticaldecisionsarethespecialgameequilibriumbetweenthegovernmentagentswhichownthemajorpoliticalpowerandthesocialagentswhichrepresentthebenefitsofthemajorinterestgroups.Thepracticalresultsofvariouspoliticaldecisionscouldbeunderstoodbythedelayequilibriumandpreemptionequilibriumincludingtheoptionvalue,orthe“fairnessequilibrium”strategiesincludingthepsychologicalmotive.Thewriteralsodemonstratesthattheremaybeexists“falsefairness”inthecross-straitgame,soeveryagentmustsearchforthe“truefairness”strategyinordertorealizethe“truefairness”objectiveofthepoliticaldecisions.Keywords:transitionalsociety;politicaldecision;optiongame;fairnessequilibrium