安庆石化含硫原油加工适应性改造工程环境风险分析及风险经济评估

合肥工业大学硕士学位论文安庆石化含硫原油加工适应性改造工程环境风险分析及风险经济评估姓名：袁永宏申请学位级别：硕士专业：环境工程指导教师：孙世群2011-04II“”H2S;520m30minLC50600mH2S618mg/m3600m580m30minIDLH800mH2S430mg/m3800mA55.7mB111.4mC278.5mC1.68×10-5/8.33×10-5/5734411.041290095340165595.04IIIIVRiskAnalysisandRiskEconomicAssessmentofProjectofSourCrudeOilProcessingAdaptabilityImprovementofAnqingPetrochemicalCompanyABSTRACTThispaperdescribedthedomesticandinternationalstatusandprogressofthestudysaboutenvironmentalrisk,discussedtheenvironmentalriskassessmentandthebasicconceptsandtheoriesofenvironmentaleconomics.Theprinciples,methods,contentandstepsofenvironmentalriskidentificationaregivendetaildescription.Forthecharacteristicsofpetrochemicalindustry,themethodsofriskidentification,andanalysisoftheidentifiedrisk,riskcalculationbasedonriskassessment,andproposedmethodsofeconomicsappliedtoriskassessmentinthepast,giventheconsequencesofriskEconomicevaluationoftheformulaandsoon.Inthisthesis,“Adaptationofsourcrudeoilprocessingandoilqualityupgradeproject”ofAnqingPetrochemicalCompanywasusedasacase.Tothecase,risktypesweredividedintotoxicandhazardoussubstancesspills,firesandexplosions.ThemostcredibleaccidentoftheprojectwereH2Sleakingcausedbyrupturedpipelineinthesulfurrecoveryunitandpetroleumgasexplosionaccidentcausedbygastankrupture.Accordingpredicted,theresultsareasfollows:theleakingaccidentcausedtheLC50above-normaround520mdimensionofrisksourcesdownwindin30min,sochosen600mtocalculatetherisk,itwouldinfluencedtheworkersofAnqingPetrochemicalCompany.whenonepetrolumntankexplosioned,it’sA-levelimpairradiusis55.7m,influencecirclecovergedallthefactory;itsB-levelimpairradiusis111.4m,itsC-levelimpairradiusis278.5m,influencecirclecovergewouldcovergedpartzoneoutofthefactory,butnoresidentsinthiszone,theinfluenceobjectweretheworker,equipmentandbuildinginthefactory.Sothemaximumriskofthemostcredibleaccidentwas1.68×10-5person/a,belowtheindustrypersonacceptablelevel8.33×10-5/a,theriskisacceptable.Theconsequenceofriskwasquantifiedbyusingeconomicmethods,derived:hydrogenleakagewoulccausedthehumanhealthlossof573440000yuan,airqualitylossesof110400yuan;gastankleakagewouldcausehumanhealthlossof129000000yuan,fixedassetslossof953400000yuan.Iftheaccidenthappened,thelosseswouldreach1655950400yuanAnqingPetrochemicalCompanyshallmakeallriskpreventionmeasurestoVensurethenationalandpeople’slivesandproperty.Thethesisproposedadviceandstrictprecautionarymeasuresaboutgenerallayout,structurefire,hazardouschemicalstorage,processtechnology,automaticcontrolandelectrical.Meantimethethesisdevelopmentplant-level,company-levelprecautionplans.Oncetherewasasuddenaccident,operationalguidanceforemergencyprogramtomitigateriskdamagemustbeprovided.Theresultsofthesisindicatethat:bytheenvironmentalriskvalueisquantifiedeconomically,itismoreintuitionistictodeterminetheacceptablelevelsofriskafterprojectimplementation,anditispreferabletoguidetheestablishmentofpetrochemicalindustryproject.KeywordsAnqingPetrochemicalCompanyriskassessmenteconomicassessment;emergencymeasuresIX1............................................................................................82..........................................................................163......................................................................................234..........................................................................365..............................66X2-1..........................................................112-2..................................................122-3..............................................................203-1..............................373-2..................................................................414-1....................................................................................475-1..............................................................515-2…………….………….…………………….525-3…………….………………………….535-4…………………………………………..535-5……………………………………….545-6……………………..…….555-7…………………..….595-8…….…………………………..605-9…………………………………….615-10…………………………………………….625-11………………………………….635-12………………….…….645-13…………………………………………….……….655-14…………………………………….………65I0551-2376155176623002211.11.1.12120[1,2]500/,20003358872009“”150/350/300/500/300/800/61.510121.1.22009“”20091.1.320[3,4]31.21.2.11.2.1.12070,[5]20307060[6,7]207080--20——[8,9]2090199219861998,1992,,901985“”19874198819802080[10,11]1.2.1.2201952121953-195619611955-1972“”GNPGNP[12]20Vilfredopareto18481923“”A.MarshallA.C.pigou[13]2060KeennethE.Boulding“The5EconomicsofComingSpaceshipEarth”[11]100%2070AllenV.KneeseRobertU.AyresRalphC.DargeTheEconomicsandTheEnvironment[12]1972LimittotheGrouthHermanE.DalyTheEconomicsDebate:WhatSomeEconomicsHaveLearnedButManyHaveNot[14]60J.H.DalesThePropertyInterface[14]2020[15]20806“”GNP[16][17]1.2.21.2.2.12080,,1234199352090,19901995199720907[18]1990057901993HJ/T2.1-93“”19972001“”“”[19,20]1.2.2.22080“”GNP[21][22-24]81.31.3.1191.3.21234“”5102.12.1.11,“”,“”,“”“”,,,,,“”[25]2,,,,,,[26]3,,,,[27]2.1.2111,,[28,29]2,,,,,,2-12-12122-22-22.1.32.1.3.11,50023,1345——————45GB18218-2000“”6781001