我国高新技术上市公司投资价值评估研究

华中科技大学硕士学位论文我国高新技术上市公司投资价值评估研究姓名：陈昱申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：夏新平20060430I0--IIAbstractHigh-techindustryhasbeenanimportpointofgrowthtopushthedevelopmentofeconomyinChina,anditisalsooneofthemostpotentialindustries.Sothestockofthesecompanieshasbeenverypopularamongtheinvestors.However,theperformanceoftheselistedcompaniesisnotsatisfied.TherearemanykindsofopportunityforlistedHigh-techcompany,atthesametime,itwilltakealotofrisks.Soitisimportantforustoresearchthecharactersofthesecompanies,tofindtheirvaluestructureandtheevaluationmethod,thenwewilllearntherealvaluestructureofthesecompaniesandreducetherisk.Anditisalsoveryimportanttopushthedevelopmentofthehi-techindustryinChina.Thisarticlehasbeenintroducedqualitativeandquantitativestudyandcasestudy.Firstly,accordingtosometheoriesaboutcompanyvalueandthecharactersofhi-techcompaniessuchashighcreative,highrisk,highvalue,highbarrier,thearticlehasbeenuseddiscountcashflowmodeltoevaluatethevalueofZhejiangmedicinelimitedcompany.Secondly,toestablishthefuturestrategybyanalysisitshistoricalperformance.thentransferfuturestrategyintofinancéforcastandevaluatetheinnervaluetogetinvestmentresult.Thirdly,toanalysistheevaluationofthatcompanybymarketingmethods.TheanalysisoftheinvestvalueofZhejiangMedicineCompanyhasofferedthewholeprocesshowtousediscountcashflowmodeltoevaluatelistedHigh-techcompany.Asanabsoluteevaluatemethod,discountcashflowmodelwillbecomewillpopular,becauseofthereformoflimitedcompanyandtherecognitionoftheinnervalueinvestmentideabymoreandmoreinvestor.KeyWordHigh-techcompaniesValuationDiscountCashFlow111.1863198990(NASDAQ)100021.2122090331.31.3.1(IrvingFisher)(Financialbudget)[1]1958(Modigliani)(Miller)[2](Black&Schoels)2080(RealOption)[3](1987)(1991)1.3.2[4][5]4[6]M-MM-M[7][8][9][10][11][12]R&D[13][14][15]1.41.4.11.4.25-DCFM1.4.31234DCFMDCFM56622.1,,,[16][17]12-731958-(Sharpe)-[18](CAPM)[19]M.Jensen,W.Meckling[20]Spence[21]S.A.Ross[22]-4--8020701973(Black)(Scholes)Black-Scholes(OPM)2.2[23]82.2.11(/PE)-[24]=/2-1=2-2=2-3=2-4122[25]92.2.2(DiscountCashFlowingModel,DCFM)[26]12=/2-51[27]2()10[28]()12;(TerminalValue)[29](WeightedAverageCostofCapital,WACC)()()nnttttWACCWACCFCFV+++=+=∑==1112-6112.32.3.1121234122.3.2123[30]123121333.13.1.121()80%[31][32]1234(OECD)1994(OECD)10227.1%2.7%2.7%4219826%,1992-19958%2.4%[33]863814213.1.21[34]21520%-30%70%-80%[35]3;;(26)1984-199013%2000(=/)420SDI13.2116200023CAPM43.33.3.1(DCFM)17DCFMDCFM()3.3.2123()3.3.31()2()3184DCFM5194DCFM4.1DCFM()[36]=-=(+)-(+)=-4-14.2DCFM4.2.11()(WeightedAverageCostofCapital,WACC)WACC=+1-(4-2)2203()()4(100)=(continuingvalueVc)gWACCROICgNOPLATVcI−−=)1(4-3Vc-NOPLAT-()ROICI-G-5(g)(ROE)(PlowBackRatioPBR)214.2.2123[37]454.3DCFMDCFMDCFM1,2DCFM22DCFM3DCFM45-10105-10DCFM4.44.4.1123()23=4-4=()T−×14-5T-=×−×T14-6=4-724=4-8/////1-T/4-14.54.5.15-10105-105-10122534.5.2SWOT4.5.312344.6(WACC)()VSKVBTkWACCscb×+×−×=14-9KbTcBSVBSKs264.6.14.6.24.6.3CAPM[]fmifiRRERRE−+=)()(β4-10Rf;ERm;ERi;β(β)1[38]2(β)27ββ[39]ββ3CAPM(SP500)[40]4.74.7.1(4-3)4.7.21228344.8112.3215%293DCFMDCFMDCFM4-2DCFM-----------WACC----DCFM--3055.15.1.1199751645006199910600216[41]5.1.2.[41]5.1.33094161319281495380194031891781[41]5-13153%6%26%3%12%5-15.2200020045.2.115-1325-120042003200220012000278052191.91204051566.16149866389.14362626931.17186589177.5247725004772500402427946.5634578808.49350759083.58350295982.78444924963.3445538359.863718123.7916572997.8212209091.0329969333.78303384137.14279163243300119028.75228743032.7206264300.51461282.2171958414.5666599530.7623217423.920152051.41029863917.68904680156.95888689530.05981864962.19887899826.5565046669.0367710381.4361578269.2432839539.79140108332.47952595305.43873269977.64749845777.74553949953.66485391599.18282111974.67225779755.15195050841.34164071583.71132953219.21670483330.76647490222.49554794936.40390233936.59352438379.9742385736.1621492655.6197247553.66123164965.5817110973.23712869066.92668982878.1652042490.06513398902.17369549353.231143024.8827439362.083436139937051480.8820928731.51838922678.511668812778.561636671688.351565154885.031418486243.72944675165844460000687930000515563410601325435151054798.52135850190.97127618713.89109038626.05102177954.951432631.071084561.081100362.9515557426.952552827.9791901447.0335607546.97162050168.66208237447.91113365428.481189064041.621017002299.02978699245.5848396910.91819421646.4417500023332403.5130925252.07108262173.95350307.271193239041.621040334702.531009624497.57956659084.86819771953.675369002.013780059.0110608380.678557383.321664580.35640314634.88624698017.02616438810.11599938416.85597049709.71838922678.511668812778.561636671688.351565154885.031418486243.72200020043325-25-2200420032002200120001382782839.811132884046.841113399315.44867037763.831091443747.811194438704.32983646854.71863903958.97648140571.16810282722.62822270.234124883.23866911.723508303.14287168.11187521865.26145112308.93245628444.75215388889.57276873857.084046830.225587371.513612782.271590455.7113049186.6144300262.1450651820.6982096524.9496167607.79158597056.3887956409.0968766866.53107066744.6262055588.8485672722.4449135351.