电力市场

©OECD/IEA2012©OECD/IEA2012ElectricitymarketsOpeninguptocompetitionandinvestmentsLarsDittmar(TUBerlin),DennisVolk&MatthewWittenstein(IEA)IEAEnergyTrainingWeekParis,10.04.14©OECD/IEA2012©OECD/IEA2012Whyagaindidelectricitymatter?02040608010012014005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5001980199020002010GDPPowerdemandUSGDPandpowerdemandgrowthGDPPowerdemand©OECD/IEA2012Electricityisprimarilyawealthcreator©OECD/IEA2012Electricityincreasesourproductivity50watt2000watt©OECD/IEA2012Globalpowerinvestmentneeds45%ofESIPowersectorinvestmentsuntil2035(WEO/NPS)16,867bnUSD43%forgrids05001,0001,500GenerationGridsbnUSDUS0100200300400500GenerationGridsbnUSDLatinAmerica0100200300400500GenerationGridsbnUSDAfrica05001,0001,5002,000GenerationGridsbnUSDOECDEurope2,5003,0003,5004,000GenerationGridsbnUSDAsia0200400600800GenerationGridsbnUSDOECDAsiaOceania©OECD/IEA2012THECONTEXTItisrelevanttoidentifydevelopmentscenarios,…butwhatcanweactuallydotoday?LarsDittmar|8CategoriesofcostsinpowerproductionandtheirrelevancetoOperationDecommissioningExpansionCostsdependentonCapacity[USD/MWel]CapitalCostsPLaborCostsPPFixedOperation&MaintenancePPCostsdependentonoperation[USD/MWhel]FuelcostsPPPOthervariablecosts(e.g.CO2)PPPLarsDittmar|9StylizedLoadCurveandLoadDurationCurve1243PmaxPminLoadCurveP[MW]Timeofday41LoadDurationCurve2+3P[MW]CumulativehoursLarsDittmar|10Short-termMarginalGenerationCostsWhere:G=GenerationunitindexSTMGC(G)=Short-termmarginalgenerationcosts[USD/MWhel]FuelPrice(G)=FuelPrice[USD/MWhtherm]Eta(G)=Efficiency[-]O&MVariable=VariableO&Mcosts[USD/MWhel]EFCO2=EmissionfactorCO2[tCO2/MWhtherm]PCO2=CO2[USD/tCO2]22Pr()()&()()()COVariableCOEFFueliceGSTMCGOMGPEtaGEtaGLarsDittmar|11Long-termMarginalGenerationCostsWhere:G=GenerationunitindexLTMGC(G)=Long-termMarginalGenerationCosts[USD/MWhel]O&MFixed=FixedO&Mcosts[USD/MW/a]Investment(G)=Investmentcost[USD/MW]Loadfactor(G)=FullLoadHours[h]STMGC(G)=Short-termmarginalgenerationcostsα=Capitalrecoveryfactor(ruleofthumb~10%)()&()()()Loadfactor(G)FixedInvestmentGOMGLTMCGSTMCGLarsDittmar|12Long-termMarginalGenerationCosts(justanorientation)05010015020025030035040045050002000400060008000USD/MWhelFullloadhoursNuclearHardcoalCCGT-GasOCGT-GasLarsDittmar|13ScreeningCurveMethod:AnnualCostsWhere:G=GenerationunitAC(G)=AnnualCosts[USD/MW/a]O&MFixed(G)=FixedO&Mcosts[USD/MW]Invest(G)=Investmentcost[USD/MW]T(G)=FullLoadHours[h]STMC(G)=Short-termmarginalgenerationcosts[USD/MWhel]α=Capitalrecoveryfactor(ruleofthumb~10%)()()()&()()()FixedACGInvestGGOMGSTMCGTGInterceptSlopeLarsDittmar|14LinearScreeningCurvesAnnualCost[USD/MW/a]FullloadhoursIntercept:Tech1Intercept:Tech2Tech1tTech2LarsDittmar|15LinearScreeningCurves:SensitivitiesAnnualCost[USD/MW/a]Fullloadhours(1)Higherinterestrates,increasingcapitalcostorbothaltertheintercept(1)(2)(2)Changesinfuelprices,CO2pricesorbothaltertheslopeLarsDittmar|16LinearScreeningCurvesandLoadDurationCurveAnnualCost[USD/MW/a]LoadDemandHoursperYearTech2Tech1LarsDittmar|17ScreeningCurveMethod:ExampleI010020030040050060070080002000400060008000USD/kW/aNuclearHardcoalCCGT-GasOCGT-GasSheddingLarsDittmar|18ScreeningCurveMethod:ExampleIIHardcoaltoNuclearCCGT-GastoHardcoalOCGT-GastoCCGT-GasSheddingtoOCGT-Gas010020030040050060070080002000400060008000USD/kW/aNuclearHardcoalCCGT-GasOCGT-GasSheddingMinCosts©OECD/IEA2012Manytechnologiesavailable,whichonetouse?020406080100120140160180200OnshoreWindGas-OCGTGas-CCGTHardcoalNuclearSolarPVUSD/MWhUS-statusquoInvestmentFuelO&MCO2Decommissioning-246810121416-20406080100120140160Jan-03Jun-03Nov-03Apr-04Sep-04Feb-05Jul-05Dec-05May-06Oct-06Mar-07Aug-07Jan-08Jun-08Nov-08Apr-09Sep-09Feb-10Jul-10Dec-10May-11Oct-11Mar-12Aug-12Jan-13Jun-13Gasprice(USD/MBtu)Coalprice(USD/t)USCoalAppalachian(MonthlyAverage)HenryHub(MonthlyAverage)020406080100120140160180200OnshoreWindGas-OCGTGas-CCGTHardcoalNuclearSolarPVUSD/MWhUS-statusquoInvestmentFuelO&MCO2Decommissioning020406080100120140160180200OnshoreWindGas-OCGTGas-CCGTHardcoalNuclearSolarPVUSD/MWhUS-highgasInvestmentFuelO&MCO2Decommissioning+15USD/MWh+10USD/MWh020406080100120140160180200OnshoreWindGas-OCGTGas-CCGTHardcoalNuclearSolarPVUSD/MWhEU-statusquoInvestmentFuelO&MCO2Decommissioning+10USD/MWh+7USD/MWh020406080100120140160180200OnshoreWindGas-OCGTGas-CCGTHardcoalNuclearSolarPVUSD/MWhEU-lowriskInvestmentFuelO&MCO2Decommissioning-33USD/MWh-56USD/MWh-71USD/MWh©OECD/IEA2012De-riskingofgenerationassetsEconomicConstructionCostoverrunsTimeoverrunsMarketInadequatepricesordemandInputcostincreaseOperationalPlantperformanceFuelunavailabilityMacroeconomicSignificantchangeinexchangeratesInflationInterestratesPoliticalRegulatoryPricecontrolsEnvironmentalobligationsExpropriationLegalDocumentationandcontractTermsValidityJurisdictionalChoiceofjurisdictionEnforcementLackofdisputesettlementForcemajeureNaturaldisasterCivilunrestStrikes©OECD/IEA2012De-riskingofgenerationassetsRegulatedRiskshiftedtoconsumersReducesoreliminatesinvestmentrisks,butcanleadto:Overbuilding“Gold-plating”–investinginmoreexpensi