相对估价法评估高科技上市公司价值的研究

20065No52006四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版)JournalofSichuanUniversity(SocialScienceEdition)146SumNo146[]2006-03-12[](NCET-04-0883):[](1981-),,,;(1964-),,,;(1958-),,,经济与管理学研究相对估价法评估高科技上市公司价值的研究谢志超1,赵昌文2,杜江1(1.四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064;2.四川大学工商管理学院,四川成都610064)[],,,,,,,[];;;[]F83091[]A[]1006-0766(2006)05-0070-07,,,IT,,DCF[1],,()[2],[3][4][5][6][7],(CAPM),:,[5]:,[8]DCF,(CAPM),,,,,IT,(ValueDriver),,,,,,2006年第5期谢志超,赵昌文,杜江:相对估价法评估高科技上市公司价值的研究,,[9],,:,:(V),(V):V=AV-SV+PN(1)V=V+APSN=AV-SV+PN+APSN(2),AV,SV,P,N,APS,N,:,;;P/E,P/E,,(P):P=N/(N+N)APS+N/(N+N)P(3)(CSUAR)(CSMAR),20012001[10],,()7,11P/E/////71四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版)总第146期2A980,1894537,1186626,(:,)2061803,1536565()3292674,22925380006,0032,0176,0146,,,2980A.()189453711866267565572118219()10225985074452355681034030()66343464281628095037()2061803153656511001412383346()3292674229253816179313702155/0102009000600132/0006003200120051/0176014600800244B.B1150.115781338510253172116276324413085/739319187565/140127104157/152713508702107/-6724262210314736/4539246013794183B285113527217361229945388720378365/983474296805/203189168219/2407203613973058/-8126390318757065/65023676212661782B71.,15011,5781,17211,6276,,/739,/142.,,722006年第5期谢志超,赵昌文,杜江:相对估价法评估高科技上市公司价值的研究,,,,15011,5781,/739,319,,,:1.,,,,,,,,;2.,;3.2B,/,2001,()Alford[11],,P/E,SIC,SIC,,,,Kaplan&Ruback[12]Kim&Ritter[13]Gilson[14],A,,,,,,,,,,,,(/,/,),,,,,,,,,()3A,,/002,/-0086,(/)73,:E,R,B;E=0,E0,E0四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版)总第146期-002,102,(/)-0613,1846,,,3B,,,,3/////A.-13150021-0613-0020-01180120-007602411040-09690113-04530800-0437-0.7320.021-0.458-0.020-0.111-2.128-0.0730.2731.830-0.6200.120-0.3651.225-1.64615%0.0260.0250.0270.0280.0290.0260.02838403736353936B.-0.454-0.386-0.407-0.004-0.108-1.2781.009-0.2280.7281.4460.269-0.1310.4481.321-0.365-0.320-0.334-0.004-0.103-1.279-3.742-0.2041.0713.2470.309-0.1230.5652.74915%000000052505151554952:,6,:;;;;15%15%;25%;75%;:,,,2B,,(Mean)(Median),15%,,15%3:,,74E=ln(R/B),EeE=eln(R/B),:P/B=eE,E,R,B2006年第5期谢志超,赵昌文,杜江:相对估价法评估高科技上市公司价值的研究4/////A.-0.694-0.015-0.7110.000-0.0160.081-0.3270.370-0.168-0.7590.016-0.3650.6640.1510.5010.0150.5090.0000.0162.0840.2790.4470.1550.5320.0160.3060.9420.16315%0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.00040423941443838B.-0.341-0.173-0.314-0.050-0.316-0.9761.0350.140-0.2930.0880.077-0.7601.5940.7330.2890.1590.2690.0490.2711.3773.8140.1500.2540.0920.0800.5323.9241.08215%0.0750.0780.0730.0780.0800.0770.07853515551505251:3()4,,,/0,/-0016,/-0711,/-0327,15%0/0,(/)-0327,1387,(/)-0711,2036,,,,/,/,()34,:1.,,,;2.,,/-0020,/-0118-0016,,,;3.,15%,;4.,(/),75四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版)总第146期(),,,(),,(/),,(/),(),,(),,,[][1].DCF[J].,2002,(2).[2]Liu,J.,D.Nissim,andJ.Thomas.Valuationsbasedonmultiplesandfuturestockreturns[R].Workingpaper,NewYork,ColumbiaUniversity:NY.2001.[3].[J].,2000,(2).[4]Liu,J.,D.Nissim,andJ.Thomas.Equityvaluationusingmultiples[J].JournalofAccountingResearch,2002,(40).[5],.[J].,2003,(7).[6].[J].,2001,(6).[7],.[J].,2001,(1).[8].[J].,2002,(11).[9],,.[J].,2003,(5).[10],,.[J].,2005,(8).[11]Alford,A.TheEffectoftheSetofComparableFirmsontheAccuracyofthePrice-EarningsValuationMethod[J].JournalofAccountingResearch,1992,(30).[12]Kaplan,S.N.andR.Ruback.TheValuationofCashFlowForecastsanEmpiricalAnalysts[J].JournalofFinance,1995,(50).[13]Kim,M.,andJ.R.Ritter.ValuingIPOs[J].JournalofFinancialEconomics,1999,(53).[14]Glison,S.C.,E.S.Honchkiss,andR.S.Ruback.ValuationofBankruptFirms[J].ReviewofFinancialStudies,2001,(13).OntheApplicationofMultiplesinEvaluatingtheHigh-techListedFirmsXIEZhichao1,ZHAOChangwen2,DUJiang1(1.SchoolofEconomyChengdu610064,China;2.SchoolofBusinessAdministration,SichuanUniversity,Chengdu610064,China)Abstract:Thispaperdiscussesthepracticabilityandlimitationofvariousmultiplesusedtoestimatevaluesoflistedhigh-techcompanies.Firstly,high-techcompaniesareundervaluedwhenthevaluesareattainedfromthebasicmultiplescalculatedbasedonallcompanies.Sincehigh-techcompaniesre-investabundantprofitsintonewproductsdevelopment.Secondly,itisn'tcoincidentforthemultiplesusedevaluatevaluesofhigh-techcompanies.Finally,itisn'tprecisetouseP/Eofhigh-techcompa-nies.Becauseofthehighriskanduncertaintyinvolved,it'shardtoestimatethecashflowinfuture.Keywords:Multiple;High-techcompany;Evaluation;Valuedriver(责任编辑:慧宇)76