石化类上市公司投资价值分析

上海交通大学硕士学位论文石化类上市公司投资价值分析姓名：通迅申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：陶亚民20050612INVESTMENTVALUEANALYSISFORTHEPUBLICLISTEDPETROCHEMICALCOMPANIESABSTRACTThisthesisfirstanalyzedthebasiccircumstanceofpetrochemicalindustryofitsdevelopmentsituationsandchangesindifferentperiodandalsoanalyzeditsfutureprospectintheWorld,EastAsia,andChina.Afterdescribingthecurrentsituationofpetrochemicalindustry,thethesisanalyzeditsperiodicityandusinggrossprofittoanalyzetheprofitabilityofdifferentpetrochemicalproductsthroughdividingtheindustryintodifferentup,middleanddownstreamchain.Thus,wherethemarginintheindustryareacanbefoundeasily.Onthebasisofaboveanalysis,thethesiscontinuedtoanalyzetheinfluencefactorsofmacro-economicdevelopmentandthefluctuationofcrudeoilprice,technologyandcapitalbulwark,andthemarketsupplyanddemand.Allthosefactorscanaffecttheprofitabilityofpetrochemicalcompanies.Aftervariousanalysisabovementioned,thethesisalsodividedthepublicpetrochemicalcompanieslistedinShanghaiandShenzhenStockExchangesinChinaintoup,middle,anddownseriesaccordingtotheirdifferentproducts.Throughanalyzingthecompanies’financialdatafromannualreportsthethesisdescribedwhichpetrochemicalcompanieshadbetterprofitabilityandpointedoutwhichcompanieshadmuchmoreinvestmentvalue.KEYWORDS:petrochemical,cycle,grossprofit,supplyanddemand,profitability20055820055820055820041230137838589.71992828(600614)35/13(“”“”)/1MBA11.1501.1.11200480%20801998-20033120/3508/2.4%4%34%3l%2068/2355/23%2l%l-11-11998-200319982003/%/%119.81.3164.51.52237.624.42988.926.8640.97.0666.56.0593.16.5977.38.83120.534.03507.831.452.00.654.50.5344.63.8440.23.92067.922.5235521.19176.3100.011154.7100.02MBA21998-20036%9%24%27%11%6%4%200397729891-132090199854428522l199829322817l1)2003842/589/2)1998-20038.5%,6.7%20038351998187%(4)200315012100/58%——643/20%MBA31.1.22003-2010(1)2003-201020102123/15%2(2)2003-20103481/50%11.0%5.4%4.9%(3)2003-20lO(5.0%)(5.4%)20lO3.2/20032.9/26002003834200320104355/24%7662/697024101.2200099%60-70%1-2MBA41-22004%9997%LDPE50%PP80%ABS97%VCM96%MEG32%1.2.111998l259/56%492%1998-20032%2003l309/44%1998122Gandhar(GAIL)20031998133,32PTA1998280/2003492/100MBA52002Optimal60/20039532003(RPI)(RII)“”500(RIL)l150/1280/--(NPC65/35)160/PE149PVCShinDai-IchiVinylV-TechPVCPVC69.7/PVC1510PVC234/20073l000(8.06)32004480/90/35/50/1.2.22010,1MBA620802003200/19982010280402650ha20043200ha150100/180/300/2010400340(TOC)38.5/70/200414002010250(2)20032003-2010(8.6%)(8.0%)980/8059372010132(3)2003-20100.1%0.6%0.4%0.9%4.5%5.4%2010200325%18%19%15%MBA71.31.3.17.5/19752004627/PE5.2PP4.6PEPP85PE3732PP172520031994-1995200320041-322.6%34.0%43.6%58.4%14.7%27.0%GDP9.4%9.50%1-32000-2004()%%%%%200013500.14456.413046.11298.2930.9200113864.12.74378.4-1.813433.83.01211.1-6.7850.2-8.7200215012.98.34215.3-3.714662.59.11228.11.4981.615.520031840322.65703.835.31800522.81763.743.61125.614.7200424666.134.07646.534.124249.634.72793.058.4143027.0%16.314.516.821.111.3,1101-4MBA81-42003()(%)15406.7537400022660.119.8713384.62128.611.561111.81133046.622852.8172432.9122001346.224.341422.11200319982003PESBS42%39%50%199830%2003835%33%50%45%33%PE42%37%SBS39%40l217913635799039232003ABSSBS1998ABSSBS1998-2003PTAPETABS200390010469862542,2004,626.61780200315.6%35.2%17913813.347%441.391948%147.8248.759.4%1-51-9MBA91-52001-2004()10637601052001116713975159210691272003130717610017911314147.820042131182109.51-61996-2004/()*(%)(%)(%)(%)1996365.2171.4219.346.91997440.617.1215.320.4249.912.248.91998472.06.6229.26.1266.86.348.61999534.011.6275.216.72815.151.52000595.810.4300.08.3296.75.350.42001718.817.1308.32.7411.227.842.92002810.111.3355.213.2455.99.843.82003880.68.0413.214.04692.846.92004919.04.2441.36.44792.148.0*=[phone]/()(%)(%)(%)(%)1996241.55140.9112.958.31997311.5222.5188.125.1147.8123.660.41998359.1713.3207.59.3178.9417.457.81999415.1713.5268.822.8167.86-6.664.72000486.9714.732417.0164.03-2.366.52001541.7210.13343.0208.6521.461.6200262313.038012.1244.2314.661.02003717.713.2445.514.7273.4310.762.12004764.76.1474.96.2291.396.262.11-81996-2004/()MBA10(%)(%)(%)(%)1996221.11143.82.3965.01997270.1318.1157.58.74.4746.558.31998318.3915.2154.6-1.92.41-85.548.61999374.8615.1186.817.21.04-131.749.82000447.4416.2264.629.42.0649.559.12001528.615.4287.78.02.26.454.42002570.177.3354.718.91.93-14.062.22003642.311.2424.316.42.5223.466.12004701.38.4503.215.72.03-24.171.71-91996-2004/()(%)(%)(%)(%)1999147.8275.427751.02000148.170.283.579.871-8.556.42001168.3512.0104.620.175.35.762.12002200.0615.9116.810.591.617.858.42003225.311.2132.311.7100.68.958.72004248.769.4147.810.5109.58.159.42003ABSFFACPL50%320042010(POMPCPHMAPVCPSABS)(PX)(PTA)(MMATDIMDIHDI)BP90/60/80/680/2006MBA11950/(4)1010%200518502010270050%,20101-101-102010()200320052010611.777751560154018502550%39.7241.8961.17607.7650910842.059601450%72.1767.762.751500.67180023502740.1334005000%54.7652.9451.081069.2150024001329.9817002700%80.3988.2388.88127.2140190218.59250340%58.195655.882005-201020106%16.7%23%44%46%30%32%SBS13.6%19.9%47%5MBA1220009()20047MBA132.1()=-(*)/2.2/2004130602.2.11MBA142//2-142-12-2200120022003200