移动业的价值链之变化

MemberofMomuc,October6-8,2003MunichFragmentationofMobileCarriersValueChainwillchangetheroleofOperatorsinMobileMultimediaCommunicationsDr.ArnulfHeuermannPartnerPage2ContentTheendoftheclassicalValueChain2.Summary5.StrategicTrends1.EvolutionalongtheValueChainLayers3.CoreBusinessandRolesofFuturePlayers4.Page3Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002MemberofContentsStrategicTrends1.1.1SizeandMarketConsolidationina2GWorld1.2SizeandMarketConsolidation:ExampleAsia1.3PlatformConvergence1.4NGNServiceOpportunities1.5StrategicDilemma:DemanddrivenDifferentiationvs.CostdrivenStandardization.1.6SummaryPage4Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002MemberofIna2Gworldonlylargeoperatorsareprofitable.Inasaturatedmarketsmalleroperatorsarenowforcedtoleavethemarketortogrowthroughstrategicdecisionslikeinternationalization,M&Aorswitchingtonewtechnologies.15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%35%45%55%65%75%85%95%CombinedMarketShareofTopTwoMobilePlayers(%)CountryAverageEBITDAMargin(%)„2Gnetworksandservices(90%telephony)arenotseparated.LargeEconomiesofScaleofthemobileaccessnetworksleadtodecreasingmarginalandaveragecostpersubscriber.AllsuccessfulMNOswerethereforeforcedtofollowacostleadershipstrategy,inparticulartryingtomaximizemarketshare.„Buteveninthegrowthphaseonlyoperatorswithhighmarketshare(usually1stand2ndmarketplayer)wereprofitableMarketPowerandProfitgoHandinHand1.StrategicTrends1.1SizeandMarketConsolidationina2GWorldPage5Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002MemberofMobilePenetrationRate(%,yearend2002)NumberofMobileOperatorsWeexpecttwomajorconsolidationmovements:In-countryconsolidationuptoathresholdof4profitableMNOsandacquisitionofoperatorsinGrowthMarkets.0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Sources:EMC-Database,2003,DeteconResearchTaiwanHongKongSingaporeKoreaAustraliaJapanNewZealandMalaysiaThailandPhilippinesChinaIndiaIndonesiaVietnamSriLanka0246810121416SubscriberDrivenGrowthMarkets2MaturingMobileMarkets1CriticalThreshold1.StrategicTrends1.2SizeandMarketConsolidation:ExampleAsia12Page6Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002MemberofPlatformstrategyaccordingtochangedmarketandtechnologyconditionsCostPressureMarginDeclinesShareholderDemandsTechnologyOpportunities“EverythingoverIP”UnifiedsignallingTelCo´sareaimingonNextGenerationNetworksinordertobringdownoperatingcostsbyceatingasingleplatformservingmostoftheirtechnicalrequirements.PSTNPlatformMobilePlatformIPPlatformATMPlatformPlatformMigrationNetCoplatformServicesTransport1.StrategicTrends1.3PlatformConvergencePage7Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002MemberofIna3GWorldDifferentiationandInnovationStrategiesontheServiceLevelwillbecomeastrategicopportunity;cheapintroductionofnewservicespossible.ServiceServiceLayerVPNCommerceMMSWAPVoicePortalMailMiddlewareNetworkPhysicalandTransportLayerControlLayerNetworkLayer2G2.5G3GWLLW-LANSatelliteCircuitSwitchedCSPackedSwitchedCSIP-CSMM-CSCSCFGWGWHSSAccessNetworkAccessNetwork1.StrategicTrends1.4NGNServiceOpportunitiesPage8Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002MemberofROIMarketShareInFutureIntegratedNetworkandServiceOperatorswillhavetofocusonCostLeadershipandDifferentiationStrategies.UniquenessperceivedbythecustomerServiceInnovation&Differentiation„Brand„Sales„Products„CustomerCareOverallCostLeadership„Efficientscalefacilities„Costreductionfromexperience„TightcostandoverheadcontrolLowcostpositionMNOshavetoconcentrateonacostleadershipstrategyforthenetworkspecificpartofthevaluechain,andonainnovationanddifferentiationstrategyfortheserviceprovisioningpartofthevaluechain.InfutureServCoswillhavetheopportunityofaDifferentiationandInnovationStrategy.TP=TransportCA=CommunicationApplicationsNCP=NetworkCentricProcessesTPACC-ESSCACCPC&ADeviceNetworkOperationsServiceProvisioningOSNCPCCP=CustomerCentricProcessesC&A=Content&ApplicationsOS=OperatingSystemCostLeadershipAreaDifferentiationAreaT-MobileGermanyT-MobileNLT-MobileUKServiceProvicer?-+0-1.StrategicTrends1.5StrategicDilemma:DemanddrivenDifferentiationvs.CostdrivenStandardizationPage9Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002Memberof1.StrategicTrends1.6SummaryTechnical,social,politicalandeconomictrendswilldramaticallythechangeoftraditionalmobilevaluechainsandpushtheemergenceofnewentrants.NewValueChainsNewEntrantsMobileMobileMarketsMarketsValueChainsRegulationStandardizationIndustryPoliticsDeregulationDevicesScientificDevelopmentsInfrastructureApplicationsMobilizationRationalOverchoiceIndividualizationAgingSocietiesBusinessModelsNewEntrantsWorldwideMarkets…………Page10Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002MemberofContentsTheendoftheclassicalValueChain2.2.1FragmentationoftheValueChain2.2Frontiersarefading2.3Differentlayersofthevaluechainrequireafocussedstrategicpositioning2.4Cross-ValueChainalliancesPage11Dokumenten-Pfad_Name_00.00.2002Memberof„Verticalintegrationusedtobeawellworkingbusinessmodelformobileplayers„IthelpedbuildinghighmarketentrybarriersfornewplayersNetworkOperatorServiceProviderResellerRetailerSupplier„Theimportanceofreachingcompetitiveadvantagesoverthewholevaluechainwilldecline,„HorizontalStrategiesbecomemoreandmoresuitablealternatives„Competitionwillincreaseoneachsinglepartofthevalu