麦肯锡：12项决定未来经济的颠覆性技术报告(全文)

McKinseyGlobalInstituteDisruptivetechnologies:Advancesthatwilltransformlife,business,andtheglobaleconomyMcKinseyGlobalInstituteDisruptivetechnologies:Advancesthatwilltransformlife,business,andtheglobaleconomyMay2013Copyright©McKinsey&Company2013TheMcKinseyGlobalInstituteTheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI),thebusinessandeconomicsresearcharmofMcKinsey&Company,wasestablishedin1990todevelopadeeperunderstandingoftheevolvingglobaleconomy.Ourgoalistoprovideleadersinthecommercial,public,andsocialsectorswiththefactsandinsightsonwhichtobasemanagementandpolicydecisions.MGIresearchcombinesthedisciplinesofeconomicsandmanagement,employingtheanalyticaltoolsofeconomicswiththeinsightsofbusinessleaders.Our“micro-to-macro”methodologyexaminesmicroeconomicindustrytrendstobetterunderstandthebroadmacroeconomicforcesaffectingbusinessstrategyandpublicpolicy.MGI’sin-depthreportshavecoveredmorethan20countriesand30industries.Currentresearchfocusesonfourthemes:productivityandgrowth,theevolutionofglobalfinancialmarkets,theeconomicimpactoftechnologyandinnovation,andurbanization.Recentreportshaveassessedjobcreation,researchproductivity,citiesofthefuture,andtheimpactoftheInternet.MGIisledbyMcKinsey&CompanydirectorsRichardDobbsandJamesManyika.YougangChen,MichaelChui,SusanLund,andJaanaRemesserveasMGIprincipals.ProjectteamsareledbyagroupofseniorfellowsandincludeconsultantsfromMcKinsey’sofficesaroundtheworld.TheseteamsdrawonMcKinsey’sglobalnetworkofpartnersandindustryandmanagementexperts.Inaddition,leadingeconomists,includingNobellaureates,actasresearchadvisers.ThepartnersofMcKinsey&CompanyfundMGI’sresearch;itisnotcommissionedbyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution.ForfurtherinformationaboutMGIandtodownloadreports,pleasevisit:Advancesthatwilltransformlife,business,andtheglobaleconomyJamesManyikaMichaelChuiJacquesBughinRichardDobbsPeterBissonAlexMarrsMay2013Disruptivetechnologies:Advancesthatwilltransformlife,business,andtheglobaleconomyMcKinseyGlobalInstituteTechnologyismovingsoquickly,andinsomanydirections,thatitbecomeschallengingtoevenpayattention—wearevictimsof“nextnewthing”fatigue.Yettechnologyadvancementcontinuestodriveeconomicgrowthand,insomecases,unleashdisruptivechange.Economicallydisruptivetechnologies—likethesemiconductormicrochip,theInternet,orsteampowerintheIndustrialRevolution—transformthewayweliveandwork,enablenewbusinessmodels,andprovideanopeningfornewplayerstoupsettheestablishedorder.Businessleadersandpolicymakersneedtoidentifypotentiallydisruptivetechnologies,andcarefullyconsidertheirpotential,beforethesetechnologiesbegintoexerttheirdisruptivepowersintheeconomyandsociety.Inthisreport,theMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)assessesthepotentialreachandscope,aswellasthepotentialeconomicimpactanddisruptionofmajorrapidlyadvancingtechnologyareas.Throughextensiveresearch,wesortthroughthenoisetoidentify12technologyareaswiththepotentialformassiveimpactonhowpeopleliveandwork,andonindustriesandeconomies.Wealsoattempttoquantifythepotentialeconomicimpactofeachtechnologyacrossasetofpromisingapplicationsin2025.Bydefinitionsuchanexerciseisincomplete—technologyandinnovationsalwayssurprise.ThepotentialapplicationsweconsiderreflectwhatMcKinseyexpertsandrespectedleadersinindustryandacademiawhoaidedourresearchbelieveareillustrativeofemergingapplicationsoverthenextdecadeortwoandprovideagoodindicationofthesizeandshapeoftheimpactthattheseapplicationscouldhave.Thecombinedpotentialeconomicimpactby2025fromtheapplicationsofthe12technologiesthatwehavesizedmaybedenominatedinthetensof trillionsofdollarsperyear.Someofthiseconomicpotentialwillendupasconsumersurplus;asubstantialportionofthiseconomicpotentialwilltranlateintonewrevenuethatcompanieswillcaptureandthatwillcontributetoGDPgrowth.Othereffectscouldincludeshiftsinprofitpoolsbetweencompaniesandindustries.Ourgoalinpursuingthisresearchisnottomakepredictions,eitheraboutthespecificapplicationsorthespecificsizesofimpact.Ratherwehopethisreportwillactasaguideforleaderstouseastheyconsiderthereachandscopeofimpact,aswellasthetypesofimpactsthatthesedisruptivetechnologiescouldhaveforthegrowthandperformanceoftheirorganizations.Wefullyexpectandhopeotherswillbuildonandenrichthisresearch,asweplantodo.Asacompanionpiecetothisresearchondisruptivetechnologies,wehaveupdatedpriorworkonbusinesstrendsenabledbyinformationtechnologies,whichwillbeavailablefordownloadattheMGIwebsite().Inanycase,webelievethatthesetechnologieswillhavelargeanddisruptiveimpact.Moreimportantly,theresultsofourresearchshowthatbusinessleadersandpolicymakers—andsocietyatlarge—willconfrontchangeonmanyfronts:inthewaybusinessesorganizethemselves,howjobsaredefined,howweusetechnologytointeractwiththeworld(andwitheachother),and,inthecaseofPrefacenext-generationgenomics,howweunderstandandmanipulatelivingthings.Therewillbedisruptionstoestablishednorms,andtherewillbebroadsocietalchallenges.Nevertheless,weseeconsiderablereasonforoptimism.Manytechno