麦肯锡公司价值评估经典模型

ATutorialontheDiscountedCashFlowModelforValuationofCompaniesL.PeterJennergren∗Sixthrevision,August25,2006SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinBusinessAdministrationNo.1998:1AbstractAllstepsofthediscountedcashflowmodelareoutlined.Essentialstepsare:calculationoffreecashflow,forecastingoffutureaccountingdata(incomestate-mentsandbalancesheets),anddiscountingoffreecashflow.ThereisparticularemphasisonforecastingthosebalancesheetitemswhichrelatetoProperty,Plant,andEquipment.Thereisanexemplifyingvaluationincluded(ofacompanycalledMcKay),asanillustration.Anumberofothervaluationmodels(abnormalearn-ings,adjustedpresentvalue,economicvalueadded,anddiscounteddividends)arealsodiscussed.Earlierversionsofthisworkingpaperwereentitled“ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompanies”.Keywords:Valuation,freecashflow,discounting,accountingdataJELclassification:G31,M41,C60∗StockholmSchoolofEconomics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.TheauthorisindebtedtoTomasHjelstr¨om,JoakimLevin,PerOlsson,KenthSkogsvik,andIgnacioVelez-Parejafordiscussionsandcomments.11IntroductionThistutorialexplainsallthestepsofthediscountedcashflowmodel,prominentlyfeaturedinabookbyanauthorteamfromMcKinsey&Company(TimKoller,MarcGoedhart,andDavidWessels:Valuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompa-nies,Wiley,Hoboken,NewJersey;4thed.2005).Thepurposeistoenablethereadertosetupacompletevaluationmodelofhis/herown,atleastforacompanywithasimplestructure.Thediscussionproceedsbymeansofanextendedvaluationexample.ThecompanythatissubjecttothevaluationexerciseistheMcKaycompany.1TheMcKayexampleinthistutorialissomewhatsimilartothePrestonexample(concerningatruckingcompany)inthefirsttwoeditionsofValuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompanies(Copelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994).How-ever,certainsimplificationshavebeenmade,foreasierunderstandingofthemodel.Inparticular,thecapitalstructureofMcKayiscomposedonlyofequityanddebt(i.e.,noconvertiblebonds,etc.).Also,McKayhasnocapitalleasesorcapitalizedpensionliabilities.2McKayisasingle-divisioncompanyandhasnoforeignoperations(andcon-sequentlytherearenotranslationdifferences).Thereisnogoodwillandnominorityinterest.ThepurposeoftheMcKayexampleismerelytopresentallessentialaspectsofthediscountedcashflowmodelassimplyaspossible.SomeofthehistoricalincomestatementandbalancesheetdatahavebeentakenfromthePrestonexample.However,theforecastedincomestatementsandbalancesheetsaretotallydifferentfromPreston’s.Allmonetaryunitsareunspecifiedinthistutorial(inthePrestonexampleinCopelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994,theyaremillionsofUSdollars).Thistutorialisintendedasaguidedtourthroughoneparticularimplementationofthediscountedcashflowmodelandshouldthereforebeviewedonlyasexemplifying:Thisisonewaytosetupavaluationmodel.Somemodellingchoicesthathavebeenmadewillbepointedoutlateron.However,itshouldbenotedrightawaythatthespecificationgivenbelowofnetProperty,Plant,andEquipment(PPE)asdrivenbyrevenuesagreeswithKolleretal.2005.ThefirsttwoeditionsofValuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompaniescontaintwoalternativemodelspecificationsrelatingtoinvestment1Previousversionsofthistutorialwereentitled“ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompanies”,sincetheyfocusedontheMcKinseyimplementationofthediscountedcashflowmodel.However,afterseveralrevisionsoftheMcKinseybookaswellasofthistutorial,therearenowsomedifferencesinemphasisandapproachbetweenthetwo,motivatingthetitlechange.Otherwise,themostimportantchangesinthesixthrevisionofthistutorialareasfollows:Theworkingcapitalitemsinventoriesandaccountspayablearenowdrivenbyoperatingexpenses,ratherthanbyrevenues.Section15andAppendix2arenew.2PensioncontributionsinMcKaymayhencemaybethoughtofaspaidouttoanoutsidepensionfundconcurrentlywiththesalariesgeneratingthosecontributions,sonopensiondebtremainsonthecompany’sbooks.2inPPE(cf.LevinandOlsson1995).Inthefollowingrespect,thistutorialisanextensionofKolleretal.2005:Itcontainsamoredetaileddiscussionofcapitalexpenditures,i.e.,themechanismwherebycashisabsorbedbyinvestmentsinPPE.Thismechanismcentersontwoparticularforecastassumptions,[thisyear’snetPPE/revenues]and[depreciation/lastyear’snetPPE].3Itisexplainedbelowhowthoseassumptionscanbespecifiedconsistently.Onarelatednote,thetreatmentofdeferredincometaxesissomewhatdifferent,andalsomoredetailed,comparedtoKolleretal.2005.Inparticular,deferredincometaxesarerelatedtoaforecastratio[timingdifferences/thisyear’snetPPE],anditissuggestedhowtosetthatratio.Thereisalsoanotherextensioninthistutorial:Alternativevaluationmodelsarealsodiscussed.Infact,intheendMcKayisvaluedthroughfivedifferentmodels.TheMcKayvaluationissetupasaspreadsheetfileinExcelnamedMCK.XLS.Thatfileisanintegralpartofthistutorial.Themodelconsistsofthefollowingparts(ascanbeseenbydownloadingthefile):Table1.Historicalincomestatements,Table2.Historicalbalancesheets,Table3.Historicalfreecashflow,Table4.Historicalratiosforforecastassumptions,Table5.Forecastedincomestatements,Table6.Forecastedbalancesheets,Table7.Forecastedfreecashflow,Table8.Forecastassumptions,Valuecalculations.Tablesinthespreadsheetfileandinthefileprintoutthatisinclud