麦肯锡公司价值评估详细指导(英文版)

ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompaniesL.PeterJennergren∗Fourthrevision,August26,2002SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinBusinessAdministrationNo.1998:1AbstractAllstepsoftheMcKinseymodelareoutlined.Essentialstepsare:calculationoffreecashflow,forecastingoffutureaccountingdata(profitandlossaccountsandbalancesheets),anddiscountingoffreecashflow.ThereisparticularemphasisonforecastingthosebalancesheetitemswhichrelatetoProperty,Plant,andEquip-ment.Thereisanexemplifyingvaluationincluded(ofacompanycalledMcKay),asanillustration.Keywords:Valuation,freecashflow,discounting,accountingdataJELclassification:G31,M41,C60∗StockholmSchoolofEconomics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.TheauthorisindebtedtoJoakimLevin,PerOlsson,andKenthSkogsvikfordiscussionsandcomments.11IntroductionThistutorialexplainsallthestepsoftheMcKinseyvaluationmodel,alsoreferredtoasthediscountedcashflowmodelanddescribedinTomCopeland,TimKoller,andJackMurrin:Valuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompanies(Wiley,NewYork;1sted.1990,2nded.1994,3rded.2000).Thepurposeistoenablethereadertosetupacompletevaluationmodelofhis/herown,atleastforacompanywithasimplestructure(e.g.,acompanythatdoesnotconsistofseveralbusinessunitsandisnotinvolvedinextensiveforeignoperations).Thediscussionproceedsbymeansofanextendedvaluationexample.ThecompanythatissubjecttothevaluationexerciseistheMcKaycompany.TheMcKayexampleinthistutorialissomewhatsimilartothePrestonexample(con-cerningatruckingcompany)inCopelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994.However,certainsimplificationshavebeenmade,foreasierunderstandingofthemodel.Inpar-ticular,thecapitalstructureofMcKayiscomposedonlyofequityanddebt(i.e.,noconvertiblebonds,etc.).ThepurposeoftheMcKayexampleismerelytopresentallessentialaspectsoftheMcKinseymodelassimplyaspossible.SomeofthehistoricalincomestatementandbalancesheetdatahavebeentakenfromthePrestonexample.However,theforecastedincomestatementsandbalancesheetsaretotallydifferentfromPreston’s.Allmonetaryunitsareunspecifiedinthistutorial(inthePrestonexampleinCopelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994,theyaremillionsofUSdollars).ThistutorialisintendedasaguidedtourthroughoneparticularimplementationoftheMcKinseymodelandshouldthereforebeviewedonlyasexemplifying:Thisisonewaytosetupavaluationmodel.Somemodellingchoicesthathavebeenmadewillbepointedoutlateron.However,itshouldbenotedrightawaythatthespecificationgivenbelowofnetProperty,Plant,andEquipment(PPE)asdrivenbyrevenuesisactuallytakenfromCopelandetal.2000.ThepreviouseditionsofthisbookcontaintwoalternativemodelspecificationsrelatingtoinvestmentinPPE(cf.Section15below;cf.alsoLevinandOlsson1995).Inonerespect,thistutorialisanextensionofCopelandetal.2000:Itcontainsamoredetaileddiscussionofcapitalexpenditures,i.e.,themechanismwherebycashisabsorbedbyinvestmentsinPPE.Thismechanismcentersontwoparticularforecastassumptions,[thisyear’snetPPE/revenues]and[depreciation/lastyear’snetPPE].1Itisexplainedbelowhowthoseassumptionscanbespecifiedatleastsomewhatconsistently.Onarelatednote,thetreatmentofdeferredincometaxesissomewhatdifferent,andalsomoredetailed,comparedtoCopelandetal.2000.Inparticular,deferredincometaxesarerelatedtoaforecastratio[timingdifferences/thisyear’snetPPE],anditissuggestedhowtosetthatratio.1Squarebracketsareusedtoindicatespecificratiosthatappearintablesinthespreadsheetfile.2Thereisalsoanotherextensioninthistutorial:Analternativevaluationmodelisincluded,too,theabnormalearningsmodel.Thatis,McKayisvaluedthroughthatmodelaswell.TheMcKayvaluationissetupasaspreadsheetfileinExcelnamedMCK1.XLS.Thatfileisanintegralpartofthistutorial.Themodelconsistsofthefollowingparts(ascanbeseenbyloadingthefile):Table1.Historicalincomestatements,Table2.Historicalbalancesheets,Table3.Historicalfreecashflow,Table4.Historicalratiosforforecastassumptions,Table5.Forecastedincomestatements,Table6.Forecastedbalancesheets,Table7.Forecastedfreecashflow,Table8.Forecastassumptions,Valuecalculations.Tablesinthespreadsheetfileandinthefileprintoutthatisincludedinthistutorialarehenceindicatedbynumerals,likeTable1.Tablesinthetutorialtextareindicatedbycapitalletters,likeTableA.Theoutlineofthistutorialisasfollows:Section2givesanoverviewofessentialmodelfeatures.Section3summarizesthecalculationoffreecashflow.Section4isanintroduc-tiontoforecastingfinancialstatementsandalsodiscussesforecastassumptionsrelatingtooperationsandworkingcapital.Sections5,6,and7dealwiththespecificationoftheforecastratios[thisyear’snetPPE/revenues],[depreciation/lastyear’snetPPE],and[retirements/lastyear’snetPPE].Section8considersforecastassumptionsabouttaxes.Furtherforecastassumptions,relatingtodiscountratesandfinancing,arediscussedinSection9.Section10outlinestheconstructionofforecastedfinancialstatementsandfreecashflow,giventhatallforecastassumptionshavebeenfixed.Section11outlinesaslightlydifferentversionoftheMcKayexample,withanothersystemforaccountingfordeferredincometaxes.2ThediscountingprocedureisexplainedinSection12.Section13givesresultsfromasensitivityanalysis,i.e.,computedvaluesofMcKay’sequitywhencer-tainforecastassumptionsarerevised.Section14discussest