act管理者不太可能将某些事情作为问题

Chapter06DECISIONMAKING:THEESSENCEOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB6-1LearningObjectivesYoushouldlearnto:1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess2,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations3,Describetherationaldecisionmaker4,Contrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedrationalapproachestodecisionmaking5,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocess6-2LearningObjectives(cont.)Youshouldlearnto:6,Identifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethem7,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertainty8,Describethedifferentdecision-makingstyles6-3Decisions–choicesfromtwoormorealternatives–allorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsDecision-MakingProcess–acomprehensive,8-stepprocess–Step1-IdentifyingaProblem•problem-discrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairs–mustbesuchthatitexertspressuretoact–managerisunlikelytocharacterizeasituationasaproblemunlesss/hehasnecessaryresourcestoact管理者不太可能将某些事情作为问题，如果他们不具有采取行动的必要资源1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess6-4TheDecision-MakingProcessProblemIdentification“Mysalespeopleneednewcomputers”IdentificationofDecisionCriteriaPriceWeightWarrantyScreentypeReliabilityScreensizeAllocationofWeightstoCriteriaReliability10Screensize8Warranty5Weight5Price4Screentype3DevelopmentofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaImplementationofanAlternativeGatewayEvaluationofDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaSelectionofanAlternativeAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba6-5©PrenticeHall,2002Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)–Step2-IdentifyingDecisionCriteria•decisioncriteria-what’srelevantinmakingadecision–Step3-AllocatingWeightstotheCriteria•mustweightthecriteriatogivethemappropriatepriorityinthedecision–Step4-DevelopingAlternatives•listtheviable可行的alternativesthatcouldresolvetheproblemwithoutevaluatingthem–Step5-AnalyzingAlternatives•eachalternativeisevaluatedagainstthecriteriaDecisionMaking(cont.)6-6AssessedValuesofNotebookComputerAlternativesAgainstDecisionCriteria6-7EvaluationofLaptopComputerAlternativesAgainstCriteriaandWeights6-8DecisionMaking(cont.)Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)–Step6-SelectinganAlternative•choosingthebestalternativefromamongthoseconsidered–Step7-ImplementingtheAlternative•implementation-conveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedbyitandgettingtheircommitmenttoit–participationindecision-makingprocessinclinespeopletosupportthedecision–decisionmayfailifitisnotimplementedproperly–Step8-EvaluatingDecisionEffectiveness•determinewhethertheproblemisresolved6-92,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations6-103,DescribetherationaldecisionmakinglRationalDecisionMaking–decisionsareconsistent前后一致的,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraints–managersassumedtomakerationaldecisions–AssumptionsofRationality-decisionmakerwould:–beobjectiveandlogical–carefullydefineaproblem–haveaclearandspecificgoal–selectthealternativethatmaximizesthelikelihoodofachievingthegoal–makedecisioninthefirm’sbesteconomicinterests•managerialdecisionmakingseldommeetsallthetests6-11AssumptionsOfRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblemisclearandunambiguousSingle,well-definedgoalistobeachievedAllalternativesandconsequencesareknownPreferencesareclearPreferences偏好areconstantandstableNotimeorcostconstraintsexistFinalchoicewillmaximizepayoff6-124,ContrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedlyrationalapproachestodecisionmakingBoundedRationality–behaverationallywithintheparameters参数ofasimplifieddecision-makingprocessthatislimitedbyanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformation–satisfice满意-acceptsolutionsthatare“goodenough”IsacommonerrorcommittedintheDMprocess?escalationofcommitment-increasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong•refusaltoadmitthattheinitialdecisionmayhavebeenflawed6-135,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocessRoleofIntuition–intuitivedecisionmaking-subconsciousprocessofmakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperienceandaccumulatedjudgment•doesnotrelyonasystematicorthoroughanalysisoftheproblem•generallycomplementsarationalanalysis6-14WhatIsIntuition?DecisionsbasedonexperienceDecisionsbasedonfeelingsandemotionsDecisionsbasedonethicalvaluesorcultureDecisionsbasedonsubconsciousdataDecisionsbasedonskills,knowledge,ortrainingIntuitionAffect-initiateddecisionsExperienced-baseddecisionsValuesorethics-baseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitive认知的-baseddecisions6-156,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisions–Well-StructuredProblems-straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefined–ProgrammedDecisions-usedtoaddressstructuredproblems–minimizetheneedformanagerstousediscretion–facilitateorganizationalefficiency•procedure-seriesofinterrelatedsequentialsteps顺序的步骤usedtorespondtoastructuredproblem•rule-explicit清楚的statementofwhattodoornottodo•policy-guidelinesorparametersfordecisionmaking6-166,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecis