China Economic and Market Outlook 2010年德意志银行关于中国经济

IMPORTANTNOTESWHENWORKINGWITHSCREENSHOW'SPRINTINGINSTRUCTIONSInordertoprintcorrectly,ensurethefollowingprintsettingsareused:—Color/grayscale:Color(regardlessofprintinginb/w)—Scaletofitpaper:ON—Printhiddenslides:OFFWORKINGWITHCHARTS:BESTPRACTICEChartsshoulduseMSGraph.Notetherearestillprintingissueswhentryingtoprintingreyscale.Thebestwaytoworkwithchartsis:—CopyMSgraphobjectsofftheedgeoftheslide—Openchartsbyright-clickingontheMSGraphobjectandselect:ChartObjectOpen—Makerequirededits—CopytheMSGraphobjectandpasteasapicture:HomeClipboardPastePasteSpecialPicture(Enhancedmetafile)—Positionthechartontheslideandungroup(Ctrl+Shift+G).ThisenablesprintingingreyscaleDISCLAIMERAdisclaimerisnotusuallyrequiredforscreenshows.However,itmayberequireddependingonthepresentation'scontents/use.UsersshouldconsultLegal/Complianceasrequired.DeutscheBankAGChina:EconomicandMarketOutlookJunMa,Ph.D.ChiefEconomistforGreaterChinaHeadofChina/HongKongStrategyJunMa(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu(852)22036187,[e-mail];September2010Allpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)007/05/2010DeutscheBank1JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,[e-mail];Septerber2010Contents1.Short-termgrowthandinflationoutlook2.RoadmapofRMBInternationalization3.Longtermgrowthpotential4.Structuralreformsin12thFiveYearPlan5.MarketimplicationsDeutscheBank2JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,[e-mail];Septerber2010Short-termgrowthoutlook1.PMItrend2.Propertymarkettightening3.InfrastructureFAIslowdown4.Productioncutsinenergy-intensivesectors5.Inflationarypressure6.Short-termgrowthoutlookDeutscheBank3JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,[e-mail];Septerber2010PMI:weakQ3followedbyamodestreboundfromQ4IndustrialslowdownManufacturingPMI35.040.045.050.055.060.065.0Jan-05May-05Sep-05Jan-06May-06Sep-06Jan-07May-07Sep-07Jan-08May-08Sep-08Jan-09May-09Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10OfficialPMIHSBCPMISource:CEIC.DeutscheBank4JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,[e-mail];Septerber2010Propertytighteningmeasuresarebecominglong-termpoliciesPropertytighteningChina'spropertytransactionpriceindex(weekly)Source:DeutscheBank,Soufun.com8090100110120130140150160090525-090531090615-090621090706-090712090727-090802090817-090823090807-090913090928-091004091019-091025091109-091115091130-091206091221-091227100111-100117100201-100207100222-100228100315-100321100405-100411100426-100502100517-100523100607-100612100628-100704100719-100725100809-100815100830-100905DeutscheBank5JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,[e-mail];Septerber20102ndroundmeasuresshouldleadtoatleast20%dropintransactionvolumefromherePropertytighteningSource:DeutscheBank,Soufun.comChina'spropertytransactionvolumeindex(weekly)0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0081110-081116081201-081207081222-081228090112-090118090202-090208090223-090301090316-090322090406-090412090427-090503090518-090524090608-090614090629-090705090720-090726090810-090816090831-090906090821-090927091013-091018091102-091108091123-091129091214-091220100104-100110100125-100131100215-100221100308-100314100329-100404100419-100425100510-100516100531-100606100621-100627100712-100718100802-100808100823-100829100913-100919DeutscheBank6JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,[e-mail];Septerber2010YoyFAIgrowthoflocalfinancingvehicleswillslowfurtherInfrastructure(transport)fixedassetinvestmentgrowth,yoy%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Jan-05May-05Sep-05Jan-06May-06Sep-06Jan-07May-07Sep-07Jan-08May-08Sep-08Jan-09May-09Sep-09Jan-10May-10Source:CEIC“Clean-up”oflocalfinancingvehiclesDeutscheBank7JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,[e-mail];Septerber2010ImpactofpowercutsonrealeconomyissmallandshortlivedChinaneedstoreduceenergyintensity(energyusageperunitofGDP)by8%inthelasttwoquartersofthisyear—Option1:Cuttingproductioninenergyintensivesectors(e.g.,viacuttingpowersupply)—Option2:Cuttingdemand(e.g.,byslowingpropertyandinfrastructureFAI)—Option3:ReportingabiggerGDPnumber—Option4:AdmittingfailureEnergyintensityDeutscheBank8JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,[e-mail];Septerber2010CPItorisefurtherinSept,addingpressureforadepositratehikeand/ordepositratederegulationInflationChinaCPIforecast,yoy%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10Nov-10Source:DeutscheBank,CEICDeutscheBank9JunMa·(852)22038308,[e-mail];WenjieLu·(852)22036187,w