基于DE-APIOBPCS-策略的牛鞭效应和库存方差

:1003-207(2005)02-0088-07DE-APIOBPCS1,2,1,1(11,430074;21,430064):APIOBPCS,,,,(),,,,,,,:;;z-;APIOBPCS:C931:A:2004-06-07;:2005-03-02:(1964-),(),,,,:.1,,Lee[1]:,,;;[1,2],[3,4],,,,,()[2,5],,[3],[4,5],(1)[3],0,D,o,D(1),,,o=D,(1)=VRO=(2O/O)/(2D/D)=2O/2D(1)VR(2)AINV,,(2)=VRAINV=2AINV/2D(2)John(APIOBPCS,AutomatedPipeline,InventoryandOrderBasedProductionCon2trolSystem)[6],,IOBPCS(InventoryandOrderBasedProductionCon2trolSystem)[7]APIOBPCS,APIOBPCS[8],APIOBPCS,,(order-up-to)[4],DezielEilonAPIOBPCSDE-APIOBPCS[9],13220054ChineseJournalofManagementScienceVol.13,No.2Apr.,2005APIOBPCSDE-APIOBPCS,z-,,,,,2BaganhaCohen:,,,,(,,)[2],,,,?,,,[2],:,,?(),,;,(),,,11,,,,;(passonorders),;,,,,,APIOBPCS,,3APIOBPCSDE-API2OBPCS311APIOBPCSDE-APIOBPCSAPIOBPCS()(Ta)(Ti),(TWIP)(AWIP)(Tw)APIOBPCS,,,,982:DE-APIOBPCS,,,TINVAINV(1/Ti),,,TINV(DWIP)(AWIP)(,TINVAINV)(1/Tw),,,,WIPDE-APIOBPCSAPIOBPCS,,APIOBPCS[8],(Tp),WIPDE-APIOBPCS,TwTi,,,APIOBPCS,,APIOBPCSCDE-API2OBPCS,TpTp,(O)(AINV)(TINV),,,TINV312DE-APIOBPCSAPIOBPCS,z,2DE-APIOBPCS,=1/(1+Ta)2,DO(3)AINV(4):1DE-APIOBPCSFO(z)=O(z)/D(z)=-(Ta+Tp+Ti)z+(1+Ta+Tp+Ti)z2(1+Ti(-1+z))(Ta(-1+z)+z)(3)FAINV(z)=AINV(z)/D(z)=z1-Tp(-Ta-Tp-Ti+z+Taz+Tpz+Tiz-(1+Ti(-1+z))zTp((Ta(-1+z)+z))(1+Ti(-1+z))(-1+z)(Ta(-1+z)+z)(4)4411(1)(5):=VRo=(2OUT/OUT)/(2IN/IN)=(1/NOUT)Nn=0(fOUT[n]-OUT)2(1/NIN)Nn=0(fIN[n]-IN)2(5),OUT=IN,(5)(6):=VRO=Nn=0(fOUT[n]-OUT)2Nn=0(fIN[n]-IN)2(6),OUT=IN=0,(6)(7):=VRO=Nn=0f2OUT[n]/Nn=0f2IN[n](7)z-(7),(8):092005=VRO=Nn=0Z-1{F3(z)I(z)}2/Nn=0Z-1{I(z)}2(8)(8)(z-)(9):=VRO=Nn=0Z-1{F3(z)}2/Nn=02[n](9)Kronecker-Delta,1,(10):=VRO=Nn=0Z-1{F3(z)}2=Nn=0f2[n](10)N,,(11):=VRO=n=0f2[n](11)412,(3),(3)(12):FO(z)=O(z)D(z)=a1z(z-a2)(z-a3)(z-a4)(12)a1=1+Tp+Ta+TiTi(1+Ta),a2=Tp+Ta+Ti1+Tp+Ta+Ti,a3=Ta1+Ta,a4=1-1Tw1(12)z-,:fO(n)=1(1+Ta)(1+Ta-Ti)Ti((1+Ta)(-1+TiTi)n(1+Ta+Tp)-(Ta1+Ta)nTi(Ti+Tp))(13)(11),:=VRO=2O/2D=n=0f2O(n)=2Ta2+3Ti+2Tp+2(Ti+Tp)2+Ta(1+6Ti+4Tp)(1+2Ta)(Ta+Ti)(-1+2Ti)=12((Tp+015)2(Ta+015)(Ti-015)(Ta+Ti)+1Ti-015+2Tp+1(Ta+015)(Ti-015)+1Ta+015+1Ta+Ti)(14)413,(4),(4)(15):FAINV(z)=AINV(z)D(z)=zz-1(a1(z-a2)zz-(Tp+1)(z-a3)(z-a4)-1)=zz-1(FOz-(Tp+1)-1)(15)a1=1+Tp+Ta+TiTi(1+Ta),a2=Tp+Ta+Ti1+Tp+Ta+Ti,a3=Ta1+Ta,a4=1-1Tw(15)fAINV(n),,z-((12))Tp+1,n=0z-:zz-1a1(z-a2)z(z-a3)(z-a4),a1,a2,a3a4(15),(16):f(n)=1+(Ta/(1+Ta))1+n(Ti+Tp)-((Ti-1)/Ti)1+n(1+Ta+Tp)1+Ta-Ti(16)(z-(Tp+1)),(16)(17):f(n)=0nTp,1+(Ta/(1+Ta))n-Tp(Ti+Tp)-((Ti-1)/Ti)n-Tp(1+Ta+Tp)1+Ta-TinTp(17)(15),(18):fAINV(n)=-1nTp,(Ta/(1+Ta))n-Tp(Ti+Tp)-((Ti-1)/Ti)n-Tp(1+Ta+Tp)1+Ta-TinTp(18),(19):VRAINV=n=0(-1)2+192:DE-APIOBPCSn=Tp+1(Ta/(1+Ta))n-Tp(Tp+Ti)-(Tp+1+Ta)((-1+Ti)/Ti)n-Tp1+Ta-Ti2(19)(19)(20):VRAINV=1+Tp+2Ta2(-1+Ti)2+Ti(1+Tp)2+Ta(1+Tp)(1+(-1+Ti)Tp)(1+2Ta)(Ta+Ti)(-1+2Ti)=Tp+2(1+Ta)2Ti2-TaTp2+TiTp(2+Tp+2Ta(1+Tp))(1+2Ta)(Ta+Ti)(2Ti-1)=1+Tp+12(14Tp(Tp+1)(Ta+Ti)(Ta+015)(Ti-015)+12Tp+1Ta+Ti(1Ta+015+1Ti-015+2Tp)+((Ta+015)-015)2((Ti-015)2-015)2(Ta+Ti)(Ta+015)(Ti-015))(20)414,,,,TaTi,?,,,((21))(W)Ta-Ti:=(W3VRO)+VRAINV(21)VROVRAINV(14)(20)VROVRAINV,,W1,VROVRAINV5,,Ta,Tp,APIOBPCS(14):,,,Tp,;Ti015,Tp,Tp;Ta+015Ti-015,,,Ta=Ti-1Ti=Ta+1;(14)Ta()Ti,TaTi;Ta=Ti=,(14)(),VRO1,,Ti(14),VRO=1,,:Ti2+3Ta-2Ta2+2Tp+1+2Ta+4+4Ta+Ta2+2Ta3+8Tp+4TaTp+4TP24TaTp2358,(14),2TaTi(Tw)2,TaTi,,(20):Ti015,1,,,,;Tp,,;Ta=Ti-1Ti=Ta+1;1,,,;,TaTiTaTi,,TaTi,2D(1+Tp);Ta=Ti=1Ta=0Ti=,Tp2358,(14),3TaTi(Tw)3,TaTi,,2920052Tp2358TaTi3Tp2358TaTi(21),,4Tp=2W,TaTi(Tw),5Ta105Ti10,,,()4Tp=2W6APIOBPCS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:[1]Lee,H1L1,Padmanabhan,V1andWhang,S1,TheBull2whipEffectinsupplychains[J]1SloanManagementRe2view,1997,38(2):93-1021[2]BaganhaM1P1,CohenM1A1,Thestabilizingeffectofin2ventoryinsupplychains[J]1OperationsResearch,1998,46(3):572-5831[3]Chen,F1,Drezner,Z1,Ryan,J1K1andSimchi-Levi,D1,QuantifyingtheBullwhipEffectinasimplesupplychain:Theimpactofforecasting,lead-timesandinformation[J].ManagementScience,2000,46(3):436-4431[4]Dejonckheere,J1,Disney,S1M1,Lammbrecht,M1R1andTowill,D1R1,Measuringandavoidingthebullwhipeffect:392:DE-APIOBPCSacontroltheoreticapproach[J]1EuropeanJournalofOper2ationalResearch,2003,147(3):567-5901[5],,H[J]1,2003,11(1):41-471[6]JohnS1,Naim,M1M1andTowill,D1R1DynamicsanalysisofaWIPcompensateddecisionsupportsystem[J].Inter2nationalJournalManufacturingSystemsDesign,1994,1(4):283-2971[7]Towill,D1R1Optimisationofaninventoryandorderbasedproductioncontrolsystem[C]1ProceedingsoftheSecondInternationalSymposiumonInventories,Budapest,Hun2gary,19821[8]Sterman,J1,Modellingmanagerialbehaviour:mispercep2tionsoffeedbackinadynamicdecisionmakingexperiment[J].ManagementScience,1989,35(3):321-3391[9]Deziel,D1P1andEilon,S1,Alinearproductioninventorycontrolrule[J]1TheProductionEngineer,1967,43:93-1041BullwhipEffectandInventoryVarianceBasedDE-APIOBPCSPolicyLUOWei1,2,ZHANGZi-gang1,OUYANGMing-de1(11SchoolofManagement,HuazhongUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Wuhan430074,China;21SchoolofManagement,HubeiUniversityofTechnology,Wuhan430064,China)Abstract:Fromacontroltheoryperspective,basedonagenericreplenishmentrulethatisAPIOBPCSpolicy,thepaperderivesananalyticalexpressionforbullwhipeffect1Itclearlyshowsthatbullwhipeffectcanbereducedbyi