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Lightingtheway:PerspectivesonthegloballightingmarketLightingtheway:Perspectivesonthegloballightingmarket4ForewordThelightingmarkethasbeenreceivingmuchattentionlatelyduetoitshighpotentialforCO2abatementanditsmanynewentrants.However,nocomprehensivereportexistsprovidingaholisticviewacrossallthekeysectorsandapplications,geographies,lightsourcetechnologiesanddifferentstagesofthevaluechain.Inthiscontext,McKinsey&CompanywascommissionedbyOsramtodrawupthismarketreportwithanindependentperspectiveonthegloballightingmarketanditslikelyevolution.Inordertodevelopaholisticoverviewofthegloballightingmarket,includinganestimateofLEDmarketsharegoingforward,McKinseyconductedaworldwidesurveyoflightingprofessionalsaswellasconsumersfromsevendifferentcountries(theUS,Germany,Japan,China,Russia,Brazil,andIndia).McKinseyalsodevelopedamodelallowingittodrawassumptionsregardingthesizeofthegloballightingmarketthroughto2020,differentiatedbyapplication,geography,andlightsourcetechnology.Themarketmodelisnotbasedpurelyonthissurvey:italsofactorsinbroad,deepresearchonhundredsofkeyparameters.McKinseyhasbeenworkinginthisindustryformanyyears,investingoverUSD2milliononprimaryresearchthroughtheMcKinseyglobalLEDCompetenceCenter,withanetworkofmorethan30dedicatedexperts.Thisreportincorporatesthefirm’saccumulatedindustryinsightstogetherwithsynthesizeddatafromexternalsources.Theappendicescontainsdetailsoftheassumptionssupportingthefindings,andafulllistofreferences.Thismarketforecastcannotofferanyguaranteesofaspecificfuturepathasmanyuncertaintiesunderlietheindustry’sdevelopment.However,McKinsey’sresearchrevealsindicationsofthetrendsdescribed,andweverymuchhopethisreportwillbeofassistancetodecisionmakersinthisindustry.5Lightingtheway:PerspectivesonthegloballightingmarketContentsExecutivesummary71.Overviewofthegloballightingmarket111.1Apoorlyunderstoodmarket,despiteitssize111.2Growthdrivenbyvariousmegatrends–especiallyenergyefficiency131.3Highfragmentation:lightingusedinmanydifferentways172.TheLEDrevolution192.1Pricesfalling:dramaticcostreductiontrend192.2Penetrationrising:growthofover30percentp.a.202.3Valuechaintransforming:disruptionofindustrystructures222.4Technologiestransitioning:energyefficiencyrisingthroughoutthelightingsector263.Deepdiveonthegenerallightingmarketgoingforward293.1Applications:architecturalistheearlyLEDadopter,withresidentialmovingslowlybutsignificantly293.2Geographies:AsialeadstheglobalLEDgenerallightingmarket333.3Structuralshift:newinstallationbusinessovertakingreplacement38Endnotes41Appendices436ImportantnoticeThismarketreporthasbeenpreparedbyMcKinseyonthebasisofpublicsourcesandcertaininformationprovidedbyMcKinsey’sGlobalLightingProfessionalsandConsumerSurvey,PikeResearchGlobalBuildingStockDatabase2011,theIMSResearchQuarterlyGaNLEDSupplyandDemandReport,andothersources(pleaserefertotheappendicesforafulllist).Inpreparingthismarketreport,McKinseyhasreliedontheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheavailableinformation,andhasnotundertakenindependentverificationoftheaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformation.Neitherthemarketreportnoranypartofitscontentisintendedorsuitedtoconstitutethebasisofanyinvestmentdecision(including,withoutlimitation,topurchaseanysecuritiesofanylistedcompanyorinconnectionwiththelistingofanycompany)regardinganycompanyoperatinginthemarketcoveredbythismarketreportoranysimilarmarkets.Thismarketreportcontainscertainforward-lookingstatements.Bytheirnature,forward-lookingstatementsinvolveuncertaintiesbecausetheyrelatetoeventsthatmayormaynotoccurinthefuture.Thisparticularlyappliestostatementsinthisreportcontaininginformationonfuturedevelopments,earningscapacity,plansandexpectationsregardingthebusiness,growthandprofitabilityofcompaniesoperatinginthemarketcoveredbythelightingmarketoranysimilarmarkets,andgeneraleconomicandregulatoryconditionsandotherfactorsthataffectsuchcompanies.Forward-lookingstatementsinthismarketreportarebasedoncurrentestimatesandassumptionsthataremadetoMcKinsey’sbestknowledge.Theseforward-lookingstatementsaresubjecttorisks,uncertainties,andotherfactorsthatcouldcauseactualsituationsanddevelopmentstodiffermateriallyfromandbeworsethanthoseMcKinseyhasexpresslyorimplicitlyassumedordescribedintheseforward-lookingstatements.Themarketcoveredbythisreportisalsosubjecttoanumberofrisksanduncertaintiesthatcouldcauseaforward-lookingstatement,estimate,orpredictioninthismarketreporttobecomeinaccurate.Inlightoftheserisks,uncertainties,andassumptions,futureeventsdescribedinthismarketreportmaynotoccur,andforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromthird-partystudiesthathavebeenreferredtointhismarketreportmayprovetobeinaccurate.Inaddition,McKinseydoesnotassumeanyobligationtoupdateanyforward-lookingstatementsortoconformtheseforward-lookingstatementstoactualeventsordevelopments.McKinseydoesnotassumeanyresponsibilitytowardsanypersonsforthecorrectnessandcompletenessoftheinformationcontainedinthismarketreport.7Lightingtheway:PerspectivesonthegloballightingmarketExecutivesummaryProjectionsrevealthatthegloballightingmarketwillhaverevenuesofa