股票外汇技术分析英文版ppt (5)

EmoryTradeOctober17,2005BoardofDirectors►President:MichaelBecker►Co-CEO:SimonTan►Co-CEO:DavidBurton►CFO:KevinChengExecutiveBoard►VPofPublicRelations:AshleyTerry►Asst.VPofPR:EricJoannu►VPofAccounting:RyanHuff►Asst.VPofAcct.:NilesLingard►VPofFantasyStockMarketGame:DavidOlscamp►VPofMembership:SamShapiro►VP–EventCoordinator:StephenPack►VP–MarketAnalyst:SuhanIslam(Note:Positionslistedinnoparticularorder)Agenda►PrizeforAttendance!Signupfornextcarwash(10/29)!►Introduction&FutureofClub(Michael)►$100FantasyGamewinner:CurtChampagne►FantasyGame(David)►StockAnalysis(Suhan)►Saturday’sCarWash+Fox5(Niles)►Nextmeeting:November14th!!Attendance+2ndCarWash►Signtheattendancesheet!Prizeforbestattendanceatendofsemester!►2ndCarWash–Oct29thSign-upwithyouravailabletimes!►(11:30am–3pm)Introduction,FutureofClub►PresentedbyMichaelBecker,PresidentSummerFantasyGameWinner!►CurtChampagnereceivesa$100check!►Congratulations!►Howcanyouwin?Hisstrategies!NextFantasyGame:Marketocracy►DavidOlscamp:FantasyGameVPStockAnalysis►SuhanIslam:VP–MarketAnalystHewlett-Packard(HPQ)StockAnalysisRandomTerms•Quarter–MostRecentQuarter(MRQ)•FiscalYear–TwelveMonthPeriod(FY)•TrailingTwelveMonths(TTM)–Mostrecenttwelvemonths;movingmeasurement.TypesofAnalysis•Fundamental•QualitativeAnalysis•TechnicalBackground•Hewlett-PackardCompanyprovidesproducts,technologies,solutions,andservicestoconsumers,businesses,andgovernmentsworldwide.–Itoperatesinsevensegments:PersonalSystemsGroup,ImagingandPrintingGroup,EnterpriseStorageandServers,HPServices,HPFinancialServices,Software,andCorporateInvestments.•Theysellcommercialpersonalcomputers,consumerPCs,workstations,handheldcomputingdevices,digitalentertainmentsystems,calculatorsandotherrelatedaccessories,andsoftwareandservicesforcommercialandconsumermarkets.•Whatdotheydo?WhyisHPInteresting•Technologicalcompanywithgrowthpotential•TurnaroundsituationwithnewCEO•StrongRevenuegrowth•Brand-namerecognition•Large-capsafetyFundamentalAnalysis•Alsoknownasquantitativeanalysis•Primarilyinvolveslookingathistoricalperformancetopredictfutureperformance•Specificallylooksatrevenue,expenses,assets,liabilities,andalltheotherfinancialaspectsofacompany–Findthisdatain10K(sec.gov):BalanceSheet,IncomeStatement,CashFlowStatementCurrentRatio•Definition:CurrentAssets/CurrentLiabilities–Currentassetsareshort-term,lessthanoneyear–CurrentAssetsinclude:Cash,Inventory,Short-termreceivables–CurrentLiabilitiesinclude:Short-termpayables•Generalidea:Acompanyisgenerallyconsideredfinanciallyhealthywhencurrentassetsareequalorhigherthancurrentliabilities•CurrentRatioof2issuperb,but1.35isgood;thehigherthebetter•HPCurrentRatio–1.429permostrecentquarter•Whatisit?DebttoEquityRatio•Definition:Long-TermDebt/Equity–Long-TermDebt–Equity:Totalassets–TotalLiabilities•Generalidea:Ahigherdebt/equityratiogenerallymeansthatacompanyhasbeenaggressiveinfinancingitsgrowthwithdebt•Neworgrowthcompaniestendtohavehigherdebtsincetheyaregrowing.However,toomuchdebtisnevergood•HP:Long-termdebt/Equity=Debt/EquityRatio–5.77B/37.47B=0.154(mrq)•Lowertheratiothebetter,butit’sacomparativetoolwithinanindustry•Recommendation:0.1(lessthan.0338isgreat)•Whatisit?PricetoEarningsRatio•Definition:Price/Earning–Thepriceofthestock/company’syearlyearningspershare•OrMarketCapitalization/NetIncome(usediluted#ofshares)–Earnings:EarninginEPS(Earningspershare)•GeneralIdea:ThehighertheP/Eratio,thehigherthespeculationofthecompany’sfutureearningperformance•HighP/Emeansmarketisoptimisticoverbought,lotsofpotentialgrowth•HP:Price/Earnings=Ratio–27.54/1.05=26.33(TrailingTwelveMonths)•GenerallyPEof15isgood,butit’saintra-industrycomparativetool.TechandgrowthcompanieshavehigherPE–WhichhasthehighestandlowestPE?Why?GE,Dell,HP,Google,StarbucksorExxonGoogle:89;Starbucks:46;HP:26;Dell:24;GE:20;Exxon:13•Whatisit?Growth•Definition:Thecompoundedannualizedrateofgrowthofaprofit,earnings,revenues,etc.–Relativemeasurement(percentage):•(Thisyear’sprofit–Lastyear’sprofit)/(Lastyear’sprofit)•GeneralIdea:Higherthegrowthrate,highertherisk.–Wanttolookforgrowthforhigherpotentialreturn•Yourabilitytotakeonriskdetermineshowmanygrowthstocksyouwanttohave•Calculatedby:(Year2–Year1/Year1)–Usuallyreadfromsources•HP:QuarterlyRevenueGrowth:9.90%(yoy)–Finance.yahoo.comEarnings•Earnings:Thenetincomeofacompanyduringaspecificperiod.Generally,butnotnecessarily,referringtoafter-taxincome.–Earningsareperhapsthesinglemoststudiednumberinacompany'sfinancialstatements.Theyshowhowprofitableacompanyis.•Guidancehasaroleinthemarketbecauseitprovidesinformationthatcanbeusedbyinvestorstoanalyzethecompany,evaluatemanagement,andcreateforecasts.Carefulbecausenumbersareinternallygeneratedandmaybesomewhatbiased•EarningsEstimate:Ananalyst'sestimateforacompany'sfuturequarterlyorannualearnings.–Analystsuseforecastingmodels,managementguidance,andfundamentalinformationonthecompanyinordertoderiveanestimate.•EarningsGrowthRate:indicatorsthatreflecttheopinionsofindustryanalystsastothegrowthpotentialofacompany'searnings.•HPQEarningsEstimatesInsiderTrading•InsiderTrading:Thebuyingorse