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AssociationforSenseAboutScienceNaturalHistoryMuseumM.S.Swaminathan,FRSUNESCOChairinEcotechnologyPresident,PugwashConferencesonScienceandWorldAffairsM.S.SwaminathanResearchFoundation,ChennaiWheretheGreenRevolutionhasleftusandwhereweneedtogonow?London,22May2003PublicGoodPlantBreeding:Whataretheinternationalpriorities?江西不孕不育医院“ThisConference,meetinginthemidstofthegreatestwareverwaged,andinfullconfidenceofvictory,hasconsideredworldproblemsoffoodandagricultureanddeclaresitsbeliefthatthegoaloffreedomfromwantoffood,suitableandadequateforthehealthandstrengthofallpeoples,canbeachieved”.ResolutionofConferenceconvenedbyPresidentFranklinD.RooseveltHotSpringsVirginia(18Mayto3June1943)MajorFaminesofthe20thCenturyYearEpicentreExcessMortality1943Bengal2.7to3.00milliondeaths1958-62China16.5to29.5million1972-75Ethiopia2lakhs1972-74Bangladesh1.5million1973Sahel1lakhSource:AmartyaSen,PovertyandFamines,1981HaitiCan’t-be-savedEgyptCan’t-be-savedTheGambiaWalkingWoundedTunisiaShouldReceiveFoodLibyaWalkingWoundedIndiaCan’t-be-savedPakistanShouldReceiveFoodFamine:Triageclassificationofcountries-PaulandWilliamPaddock,1967VariationinAustralianAverageWheatYield(Ten-YearMean)from1860to2000FightingSoilHungerWaterConservationandManagement:KeytoCropSecurityThericeterracesofBaliGreenRevolutioninEuropeoBeganwithLiebig’sdiscoveryofmineralfertilizerinthe1850soSoilhealth,watermanagementandplantprotectionprovedtobekeyfactorsindeterminingcropproductivityoMendeliangeneticshelpedtobreedstrainscapableofrespondingwelltosoilfertilityandirrigationwatermanagementDaruma(Japanesesemi-dwarf)XFultz(U.S.winterwheat,highyield)Fultz-Daruma(semi-dwarf,highyield)Locals(adaptedtoU.S.Northwest)XXTurkeyRed(U.S.winter,highyield)Norin10(semi-dwarf,winter,highyield)Gaines(semi-dwarf,winter,U.S.adpted)XLocalStrainsNewWheats(semi-dwarf,highyield,adaptable,rust-resistant,fast-maturing,spring)Originofthesemi-dwarfwheatsPowerofMendelianBreedingPublicgoodPlantBreedingandassuredandremunerativemarketingtriggeredrapidprogressWheatProduction–IndianowoccupiestheSecondPositionintheWorld1965:10Milliont2000:80MilliontoSometimebetween1970and1985theworldwillundergovastfamines—hundredsofmillionsofpeoplearegoingtostarvetodeath.Thatis,theywillstarvetodeathunlessplague,thermonuclearwar,orsomeotheragentkillsthemfirst.oTheUnitedStatesshouldannouncethatitwillnolongershipfoodtocountriessuchasIndiawheredispassionateanalysisindicatesthattheunbalancebetweenfoodandpopulationishopeless.Ehrlich1968SynergybetweenTechnologyandPublicPolicyScienceandAgriculturalProgress1968–TheBeginningofGreenRevolutionoPedigreeSelectionoInter-varietalHybridizationoWinterxSpringWheatcrossesoMutationBreedingoAneuploidandGenomicBreedingoRestructuringPlantArchitecture:Semi-dwarfwheatoShuttleBreedingandPhoto-insensitivityoHybridWheatoApomixisoFunctionalGenomicsandMolecularBreedingHundredYearsofWheatBreedingLandandForestSavingAgricultureNon-lodging,greaterabsorptionofsunlight,betterrootsystem,higherharvestindexandphoto-insensitivityNewPlantTypeinRice8000BC1900Landraces1930Purelineselection1950Crossbreds2010Biotech-nology1995Indica/Indicahybrids2005Indica/Tropicaljaponicahybrids196519902000NewplanttypeSemidwarfs(IR8)(IR72)14121086420Potentialyield(t/ha)FromGreentoGeneRevolutioninRicePublicSectorPublic-PrivateSectorGeneticResources(buildingblocks)Biotechnologies(tools)CommercialProducts(marketvalue)$SuigenerisSystems(Rights)Benefit-sharing(collectiverights)(e.g.Farmers’RightsandtheGlobalPlanofAction)IntellectualPropertyRights(individualrights)%(e.g.PlantBreeder’sRights)FAO–InternationalTreaty–Art,9(alsoArt.12&13)CBD–Art,8(j)WIPOWTO/TRIPS(Art.27.3.b)UPOVAccesstoGeneticResourcesandBiotechnologiesforFoodandAgriculture“Manhaslostthecapacitytoforeseeandtoforestall.Hewillendbydestroyingtheearth”-AlbertSchweitzerEnvironmentandDevelopment:EarlyWarningRachelCarson1962:SilentSpring“Intensivecultivationoflandwithoutconservationofsoilfertilityandsoilstructurewouldleadultimatelytothespringingupofdeserts.Irrigationwithoutarrangementsfordrainagewouldresultinsoilsgettingalkalineorsaline.Indiscriminateuseofpesticides,fungicidesandherbicidescouldcauseadversechangesinbiologicalbalanceaswellasleadtoanincreaseintheincidenceofcancerandotherdiseases,throughthetoxicresiduespresentinthegrainsorotheredibleparts.Unscientifictappingofundergroundwaterwouldleadtotherapidexhaustionofthiswonderfulcapitalresourcelefttousthroughagesofnaturalfarming.Therapidreplacementofnumerouslocallyadaptedvarietieswithoneortwohighyieldingstrainsinlargecontiguousareaswouldresultinthespreadofseriousdiseasescapableofwipingoutentirecrops,ashappenedpriortotheIrishpotatofamineof1845andtheBengalricefamineof1942.Therefore,theinitiationsofexploitativeagriculturewithoutaproperunderstandingofthevariousconsequencesofeveryoneofthechangesintroducedintotraditionalagricultureandwithoutfirstbuildingupaproperscientificandtrainingbasetosustainit,mayonlyl