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©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1.710069;2.276005),,.,.;;;;N09.,,.,.1.,..;.,.,,...(JOhnGraunt,1620-1674),.,,,.1.08,1314;;1.5%.,.,,.,,,.(WilliamPatty,1623-1687).,.1676..,.2,.(EdmondHelley,1656-1742)Breslau,121Vol.10,No.1Jan.,2007STUDIESINCOLLEGEMATHEMATICS3:2005-02-04.:,(1047111).©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(JacobBernoulli,1654-1705).(Tomassimpon,1710-1761).(LeonhardEuler,1707-1783).(ThomasRobertMalthus,1766-1834).(PierreSimonLaplace,1749-1827),,.(Charleslyell,1797-1875)1830-1833,.1831,,.(AdolpheJacguesQuetele,1796-1874).,18291831.,,.,,.1844,5738:..19,.1832.1835,...1851.1853,..,,.(PierreGuillaumeFredericLePlay,1806-1882);(ChristianLorenzErnestEngel,1821-1896),,,,,..1830,.1830,..(LadislausvonBortkiewicz,1868-1931),.,(EmstAbbe,1840-1950).,.(FrancisGaldon,1822-1911),.,,,.,,.1886YX.,.(ArthurCayley,1821-1895)xTAx.A-1=V,V..22120071©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(KarlPearson,1857-1936)..1884.1890-1900,,,,,.1895,,(Pearson).1901,,.(AndreiandreevicMarkov,1856-1922)Pearson,,.2WilhelmHectorBichardalbrechtLexis.(WalterFrankRaphaelWeldon,1860-1906).1908,(WilliamSealyGossett,1876--1937)Student,.t,.,,,,.3,(SergeiNatanovicBernstein,1880-1968).2030(R.A.Fisher,1890-1960)(),(Weibulldistribution),(Gumbeldistribution),nx(Frecherdistribution);.(R.vonMises,1883-1968)..,;,,,;t,(VilfredoPareto,,)..1909,,.1915,,.1919,..,.2020-40,..;Mendelian;.1920,Rothamsted,.,(combinatorics),.,t-F-..,().nLatin,Latin;Graeco-Latin.,,.(JerayNeyman,1894-1981)(EgonSharpePearson,1895-321101,:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.).,,.,,;;;..(1910-1970).1936,,.-.41940,..50,,,.,1950.602.60..,,.,.70.,.,.,,,60.80,,,,,.,.,.80.,..,,.,,,,,;,.,70,,,.90.(MarkovchainMonteCarlo:MCMC).90,.MCMC,,,MCMC,(ThomasBayes,1701-1761),.42120071©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[1]H.O.Lancaster.EncyclopediaofStatisticalScience[J].NewYork:Wiley1988.[2]IanHacking.TheTamingofChance[M].NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,1990.[3]I.B.Cohen.RevolutioninScience[M].TheBelknapPressofHarvardUniversityPress,1985.[4].[M].:,2002.[5].[J].,2002,11.[6],.[M].:,1987.[7].[M].:,1987.(95)2dydx=[1+(x2+y2)-1/2arctan(y/x)]y+x[1+(x2+y2)-1/2arctan(y/x)]x-y.2,dd=(1+)-1=+,dd-=,=Ce--1,x2+y2=Cearctan(y/x)-arctan(y/x)-1.3dydx=[1+(x2+y2)1/2arctan(y/x)]y+x[1+(x2+y2)1/2arctan(y/x)]x-y.3,n=2dd=+2.1/=Ce--+1.1x2+y2=Ce-arctan(y/x)-arctan(y/x)+1.,,4:k.(x,y),(x,y):|xy-y|1+y2=kx2+y2,(1+y2)k2(x2+y2)=(xy-y)2.x=cos,y=sin,dydx=sind+cosdcosd-sind,dd=1-k2k,=Ce1-k2k.[1].[M].:,2004.[2],,.[M].:,2003.[3],.[M].:,2004.[4],.[M].:,1984.521101,: