Verhulst模型在城市生活垃圾产量预测中的应用

1009-6825201219-0218-03Verhulst2012-04-291983-350003Verhulst2010～2015201520101．2。VerhulstX705A0、。。。、1。2、3、GM114、5。、。———Verhulst。1、GM11、。CJ/T106-1999y=at+by=y01+at－1y0at。櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅。。3。1234。。。。、。1．M．2002245-246．2．J．20052263-65．3．M．199673．4．M．2000157-158．5．J．20081731-32．6．J．20082715-17．7．J．20081349-50．8．J．20082127-28．OnenvironmentalpollutioninarchitecturalconstructionanditspreventionmeasuresWANGYue-jinZhejiangRuixinConstructionEngineeringCompanyWenzhou325000ChinaAbstractThestudyanalyzestheenvironmentpollutantsintheconstructionprocessincludingthedustandarchitecturalslurryetc．andpointsoutthemanagementstrategiesandtheenvironmentalprotectionmeasuresforthiskindofpollutantssoastoreducetheenvironmentalpollutionmaximallyandensurethehealthyworkandlivingenvironmentforresidents．Keywordsarchitecturalconstructionenvironmentalpollutionpreventionmeasures·812·381920127SHANXIARCHITECTUREVol．38No．19Jul．2012Verhulst。1．1VerhulstVerhulstMalthasiadptt=apt－bp2t1abp2t。1VerhulstVerhulst。p（t）t0图1Verhulst模型增长特性1．2VerhulstVerhulst。x0i1-AGOxiix1i。nx0ii=12…n1-AGOx1ix1i=∑ik=1x0ki=12…nk=12…i221dx1t=ax1－bx123abT=BTB－1BTYn4B=12x11+x12－14x11+x12212x12+x13－14x12+x13212x1n－1+x1n－14x1n－1+x1n25Yn=x02x03…x0nTx⌒1it+1=a/b1+abx01()+1e－at6t=12…nx⌒1i。21996～2010、210%65%～80%。2000200、2000～200892008Verhulst。Verhulst3C=0．12P=0．98。100908070605040302010019952000200520102015/t图2厦门市城市生活垃圾产量100908070605040302010019952000200520102015/t图3厦门市垃圾产量实际值与计算值Verhulst1996～20072008～20101。GM11Verhulst2．2%。1996～2010515201520101．2。12008～2015tt//%GM11Verhulst200887．0678．63/9．779．23/9．089．89/3．389．17/2．2200988．7683．44/6．085．76/3．493．21/5．089．93/1．3201090．8788．25/2．988．32/2．896．54/6．292．12/1．42011—96．7896．3297．3295．332012—101．92102．35103．2198．762013—107．06108．45111．7499．562014—112．20112．78118．45101．512015—117．34119．31125．93102．35311996～201010%65%～80%。2Verhulst、GM11·912·381920127Verhulst1009-6825201219-0220-022012-03-151974-310020。TU983A“”。。。。1。。。。、。2。。。。3“”“”。3．121、。。。1、。。2。3．2櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅櫅。3Verhulst2010～2015201520101．2。1．BPJ．2003194335-339．2．、J．200513237-43．3．J．200513131-34．4．J．20073295-8．5．J．200329621-24．TheapplicationofVerhulstmodelincityliferubbishoutputspredictionZHOUWenFujianConstructionEngineeringQualitySafetySupervisionStationFuzhou350003ChinaAbstractThroughthecomparisonoffeaturesofseveralforecastmodelsthispaperfoundthegrowthcharacteristicsofVerhulstmodelclosedtothegrowthcharacteristicsofcityliferubbishoutputsbasedonthismodelthispaperpredictedthecityliferubbishoutputsofXiamencityitisfoundthatthemodelhadhighpredictionaccuracy2010to2015thecityliferubbishoutputsgrowthofXiamencitywassmalltheoutputof2015was1．2timesof2010．KeywordsVerhulstmodelrubbishoutputforecast·022·381920127SHANXIARCHITECTUREVol．38No．19Jul．2012