安徽万佛湖富营养化评价与营养盐变化趋势预测

16320096ResearchofSoilandWaterConservationVol.16,No.3Jun.,200931,1,2,3(1.,237012;2.,237012;3.,212013):2001-2007,(TLI);,3GM(1,1),:(1)200733.537,,;(2),TN,TP,,,:;;;:X524:A:100523409(2009)0320079205EutrophicationEvaluationandNutrientsChangesTrendForecastofWanfuLakeinAnhuiProvinceWANGWan2fen1,WUYan1,LIUChang2li2,CHUJin2yu3(1.CityConstructionandEnvironmentDepartment,WestAnhuiUniversity,Luan,Anhui237012,China;2.ChemistryandLifeScienceDepartment,WestAnhuiUniversity,Luan,Anhui237012,China;3.Envi2ronmentalInstitute,JiangsuUniversity,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu212013,China)Abstract:UtilizingthemonitoringdataofWanfuLakefrom2001to2007inAnhuiProvince,adoptingsyn2theticevaluation(TLI)methodtoevaluateeutrophicationandbasedonthegreysystemtheoryofconstruc2tingthreegraydynamicmodelgroupscomposedofGM(1,1)toforecastthenutrientsaltchangingtenden2cyofWanfuLake,theresultsindicatethatthecomprehensivenutritionconditionindexesofWanfuLakein2007is33.537,whichliesinthenutritionallevel,theeutrophicationdegreeisinfluencedbywaterperiodslightly,andshowsthatbythemeansofthegreysystemtheorythedensityofTNincreasesdramaticallywhilethedensityofTPdecreasesremarkably.Thegraydynamicmodelgroupmethod,whichusesstatisticalaverageofmodelgroupsasthefinalpredictionandavoidstheinstabilityofonlyonegraymodelmethod,canmakefulluseofrecentwaterqualitydatatoforecastthechangingtrend.Andpredictionresultisgreatlymeaningfulforprotectingthelocaldrinkingwaterandsustainabledevelopingfreshwaterresource.Keywords:graydynamicmodelgroup;nutrients;eutrophicationevaluation;WanfuLake,,,,,,[1],()3,2,,,[2]3:2009201203:(KJ2008A138);(2008LW025);(KJ2009B293Z):(1975),,,,,E2mail:[e-mail],,[3],GM(1,1)[425],GM(1,1),(),GM(1,1),,,[6],(TLI)GM(1,1),,11.1,,9.02m3,1111km2,,,,,,,[7],1,2,(TLI)GM(1,1),12007CODMn/(mgL-1)TP/(mgL-1)TN/(mgL-1)SD/mChl2a/(mgm-3)2.200.430.0260.0040.560.343.860.130.00420.005122001-2007mg/L20012002200320042005200620070.3500.0800.4800.1600.3500.1400.3500.0210.3900.0140.5000.1770.5600.3400.0470.0070.0450.0050.0430.0040.0400.0020.0440.0010.0280.0060.0260.0041.21.2.1,,[8210]TLI()=mj=1WjTLI(j)(1):TLI();TLI(j)j;Wjj:TLI(Chl2a)=10(2.5+1.086lnChl2a)(2)TLI(TP)=10(9.436+1.624lnTN)(3)TLI(TN)=10(5.453+1.694lnTN)(4)TLI(SD)=10(5.118-1.94lnSD)(5)TLI(CODMn)=10(9.463+2.661lnCOD)(6)1.2.2a1,jChl2aRij(j=1,2,,m),,Rij=Rji,R2ijj[11]:wj=r2ijmj=1r2ij:rijj;m(34)()Chl2arijR2ij33()Chl2aChl2aTPTNSDCODMnrij10.840.82-0.830.83r2ij10.70560.67240.68890.6889Wj0.26630.18790.17900.18340.1834:rij261.2.3()0-100()(4)1.31.3.1GM(1,1)GM(1,1),x(0)(k)4x(0)(k)n,(n-3),(n-3)[11]08164()TLI()TLI()3030TLI()50TLI()5050TLI()6060TLI()70TLI()70X(0)(n-3),X(0)(n-2),X(0)(n-1),X(0)(n)1x(1)1(k+1)=(x(0)(1)-u1a1)e-a1k+u1a1(7)X(0)(n-4),X(0)(n-3),X(0)(n-2),X(0)(n-1),X(0)(n)2x(1)1(k+1)=(x(0)(1)-u2a2e-a2k+u2a2(8)X(0)(1),X(0)(2),,X(0)(n)n-3x^(1)n-3(k+1)=(x(0)(1)-un-3an-3)e-an-3k+un-3an-3(9),,x(1)(k)=[n-3i=1x(1)i(k)]/(n-3)(10)1.3.2TP[12]x(0)=[x(0)(1),x(0)(2),x(0)(3),x(0)(4),x(0)(5),x(0)(6)]=(0.047,0.045,0.043,0.040,0.044,0.028)x(1)=[x(1)(1),x(1)(2),x(1)(3),x(1)(4),x(1)(5),x(1)(6)]=(0.047,0.092,0.135,0.175,0.219,0.247)x(0),(k)=x(0)(k)x(1)(k-1)(11)(3)0.470.5,(4)0.300.5,(5)0.250.5,(6)0.130.5k3x(1),(1)(k)=x(1)(k)x(1)(k-1)(12)(1)(3)1.47,(1)(4)1.3,(1)(5)1.25,(1)(6)1.13k3,(1)(k)[1,1.5],=0.5,,TPGM(1,1),TN,,GM(1,1)1.3.32001-2007,GM(1,1),5,6,P,C[12214],5TNGM(1,1)GM(1,1)PC1X(1)^(t+1)=1.6503e0.186160t-1.30031.0000.1152X(1)^(t+1)=2.3247e0.129970t-1.84471.0000.1713X(1)^(t+1)=17.8294e0.021960t-17.47940.8330.4236TPGM(1,1)GM(1,1)PC1X(1)^(t+1)=-0.3140e-0.146982t+0.35701.0000.3902X(1)^(t+1)=-0.4717e-0.098930t+0.51670.8000.4753X(1)^(t+1)=-0.69179e-0.078242t+0.66480.8330.47622.12.1.12007a(Chl2a)(TP)(TN)(SD)(CODMn)5,,7733.537,,,2.1.22007,,8183:72007TLI(CODMn)TLI(TP)TLI(TN)TLI(SD)TLI(Chl2a)TLI()22.07135.36041.35824.97740.58533.5378TLI(CODMn)TLI(TP)TLI(TN)TLI(SD)TLI(Chla)TLI()20.83335.04434.41524.91037.63231.15022.66935.36046.01825.02729.03531.45623.25437.68345.59225.15449.04137.250,,2.23GM(1,1)2007TN,0.52mg/L,0.56mg/L7.14%;3GM(1,1)2007TP,0.030mg/L,0.026mg/L15.38%,[15]2008-2012TNTP,9,109TNmg/L1232001--0.350.350.352002-0.480.400.440.4820030.350.320.400.360.3520040.340.370.410.370.3520050.410.420.420.420.3920060.490.480.430.470.5020070.590.540.440.520.5620080.710.620.450.5920090.860.700.460.6720101.030.800.470.7720111.240.910.480.8820121.501.040.491.0110TPmg/L1232001--0.0470.0470.0472002-0.0450.0460.0460.04520030.0430.0440.0430.0430.04320040.0430.0400.0400.0410.04020050.0370.0360.0380.0370.04420060.0320.0330.0340.0330.02820070.0280.0300.0310.0300.02620080.0240.0270.0290.02720090.0210.0250.0270.02420100.0180.0220.0250.02220110.0150.020.230.01920120.0130.0180.0210.0172001-2007TNTP2001-2012,1212,TN,TP,;,,,,12001-2012TN22001-2012TP28163(1)33.537,,(2),TN,TP:[1],,,.[J].,2002,18(1):41244.[2],.[J].:,2007,35(2):1332136.[3].:[M].:,1999.[4],.[J].,1998(2):10217.[5],,.[J].,1998(7):16220.[6],,,.[J].:,2007,23(5):5232525.[7].2001-2007[S].2007:1112113.[8],.[J].,2008,15(3):1672170.[9],,.[J].,2002,18(5):47249.[10],,.[J].,2007,14(3):3212324.[11].[J].:,2006.[12],,,.[M].:,2