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：1000-8462（2009）09-1546-06430079GDPEKCGDPUU、N。UU、N。,“”“”。EKCF062.2A1EKC。“”EKC[1-2]“U”。EKC。1991EKC、。:、UN[3-5]。1999EKC[6]10EKC。2004、2007“U”[7-8]。、20071980—19961997—2004GDP[9]。,“U”[10]。。1996—20071“”EKC。。、、。299Vol.29No.920099ECONOMICGEOGRAPHYSept.20092009-04-18；2009-08-20“”(2008ZX07105-001-3)“”2006BAK11B04。DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2009.09.017。1GDPTab.1ForkeywaterqualityindicatorsandErhaibasinvariablesGDPpercapitatableGDP/SD/mCODMn/mg/LTP/ug/LTN/mg/LTSI199650003.451.53200.2245199751753.221.64200.2848199865773.592.04200.3851199976953.342.53300.3052200083583.102.46270.3251200188463.632.59250.3452200294122.392.88300.4055200399401.523.50340.5762.42004100311.773.42310.57582005119771.873.46260.5458.22006143311.733.10250.6642.52007163191.832.85210.5441.41EXCEL。2,250km2,—。、、、、、,。2565km28035%。1/4,40%50%。1990。,1970,,,。,,。1985,,19881990,,,[11]。1992—1996545。19961996、19982003。。2002—2005,;。,。－。15t1036t291t、COD33889.4t/TN7566.1t/,TP1552t/,。、70%①。1。1996—20012003《》2002—2005“2006、2007《》。3。GDPGDPGDPGDPGDP1996GDP。1996—2006《》、《》、《》、《》2006—2007《》。3U、U、NKEC91547①.“20083.2008ZX07105-001-3。2GDPTab.2ErhaibasinwaterqualityvariablesandpercapitaGDPcurvefittingandParameterEstimationModelCheckingGDPR2FSig.b0b1b2b30.90442.1930.000-2.2620.001-3.59E-008CODMnmg/L0.91428.2010.000-0.3960.0002.90E-008TN0.75513.8760.002-0.2220.000-3.1E-009mg/L0.81812.0200.0020.7760.0003.16E-0090.72912.0830.00310.0500.009-4.5E-007TSI0.7297.1740.01213.4660.008-3.3E-007TP0.69410.2080.005-9.2510.007-3.3E-007ug/L0.6996.1930.018-18.7170.010-6.6E-0070.6418.0410.0106.030-0.0011.59E-008SDm0.61616.0570.00219.675-1.873154829Yt=b0+b1Xt+b2Xt21Yt=b0+b1Xt+b2Xt2+b3Xt32Yt=b0+b1lnXt3YttXttGDP。SPSS13.0TN、TP、SD、CODMnTSIGDPTN、TP、CODMn、TSI、SD、SD。1、2TN、TP、CODMn、TSIGDP1、3SDGDP21—5。-2.7E-012-1.1-0.12-3.8E-0121.05E-0111GDPFig.1PermanganateindexandpercapitaGDPofthefittingcurve2GDPFig.2TNpercapitaGDPandthefittingcurve3GDPFig.3NutritionalstatusindexandpercapitaGDPofthefittingcurve4GDPFig.4TPpercapitaGDPandthefittingcurve5GDPFig.5TransparencyandpercapitaGDPofthefittingcurve4TN、TP、SD、CODMn、TSIGDPR2、F、PT。。GDPEKC。CODMnGDPR21P0.000。CODMnGDPU。CODMn“”GDP1250015000GDP。TNGDPUU“”TNGDP17500。N。——。TSIGDPUGDP10000“”。。TNSD。TPGDPR2。U1000012500。SDGDPR2。USD。1。1996—20032003SD。GDP10000199650009940。20031.52m“”。12003。2003GDP10000。U。UN。U。91549。。“”EKC。5GDPEKCGDPUU、N。UU、N。、、、、、、[12]。,,,,,[13]。、[14]。。:①GDP。GDP。②、,。③。,。④20044,,,。[1]SoumyanandaDinda.EnvironmentalKuznetsCurveHypothesis:ASurvey[J].EcologicalEconomics200449(4)431-455.[2].[M].2007.[3].[J].·2005(5)8-10.[4]NehaKhannaFlorenzPlassmann.ThedemandforenvironmentalqualityandtheenvironmentalKuznetsCurvehypothesis[J].Ecologi-calEconomics200451225-236.[5]AriasterB.ChimeliJohnB.Braden.TotalFactorProductivityandtheEnvironmentalKuznetscurve[J].JournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagement200549(2)366-380.[6].[J].1999(3)88-99.[7].[J].2007161(1)20-22.[8].[J].200432(4)387-388.[9].[J].200726(5)934-936.[10].———[J].200626(6)1023.[11].[J].20053(1)70-73.[12].[J].2001(8)39-40.[13].———[J].200055(6)707-717.[14].———[D].200759-67.155029CITYECONOMICDEVELOPMENTANDEMPIRICALANALYSISOFTHELAKEWATERENVIRONMENTALPROTECTION———ERHAILAKEANDITSWATERSHEDASANEXAMPLEKEGao-feng，DINGLie-yun（CentralChinaNormalUniversitySchoolofEconomicsandManagement，Wuhan430079，Hubei，China）Abstract:Erhailake，YunnanDalianditswatershedasanexample,throughtheestablishmentoflakeandriverbasinwaterqualityobjectivesfortheevolutionofGDPpercapitagrowthmodel,theenvironmentalKuznetscurve(EKC)foundanewtest:Basedonthetime-seriesdatawaterqualityobjectivesfortheLakeErhaibasinpercapitaGDPandthefittingcurve,shownwiththeenvironmentalKuznetscurveandshapeofdifferentfeatures,boththeclassicinvertedU-shapedcurve,thereareU-,N-typeandsynchronizationofthecurvetype.InvertedU-shapedcurveshowsthattheeffectivenessofmanagementmeasuresErhai;U-type,N-typeandsynchronizationofthecurvesshowthatthelake-basednon-pointsourcepollutionandeutrophicationcontrolofthecomplexnatureofnon-pointsourcepollutionandlakeeutrophicationcontrolneedtoseeknewideasandavarietyofmeasurestosolvetheco-ordination.Keywords:urbanandruraleconomicdevelopment；ErhaiLakewaterquality；EKC；non-pointsourcepollution；lakeeutrophicationcontrol1975—。、。E-mail:kegaofeng0514@163.com。1545ENERGYANALYSISANDSUSTAINABILITYASSESSMENTOFTHEECOLOGICAL-ECONOMICSYSTEMOFTIANJINCITYMENGWei-qing1，HAOCui2，LIHong-yuan2，JUMei-ting2(1.CollegeofUrbanandEnvironmentScience，TianjinNormalUniversity，Tianjin300387，China；2.CollegeofEnvironmentScienceandEngineering，NankaiUniversity，Tianjin300071，China)Abstract:Basedonthemethodsofemergyanalysis,thispaperstudiedtheemergyflowintheecologicaleconomicsystemofTianjinin1998—2007，andtheemergysustainableindexquantitativeanalysisontheecologicaleconomicstructureanddevelopmentstatusofTianjin.TheresultsshowedthatinTianjinProvince,thenon-renewableresourcesoccupied89%ofthetotalconsumedemergyin2007,andtherealisticpopulationin2007was1.56timehigherthanthesupportablepopulation,exceed4.02million.In1998—2007,emergyself-supportratiodecreasedfrom0.70to0.45,emergyyieldratiodecreasedfrom3.69to2.37,emergylo