富营养化浅水湖泊藻源性湖泛的短期数值预报方法以太湖为例

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J.LakeSci.2016284701-709DOI10.18307/2016.04022016byJournalofLakeSciences———*210008.a3da3d.20132014、73d80%.Numericalforecastingofshort-termalgae-inducedblackbloomineutrophicshallowlakeAcasestudyofLakeTaihuLIWeiQINBoqiangZHANGYunlin&ZHUGuangweiStateKeyLaboratoryofLakeScienceandEnvironmentNanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnologyChineseAcademyofSciencesNanjing210008P.R.ChinaAbstractInthispaperanattempttoforecastthealgae-inducedblackbloomineutrophicshallowlakewasdocumented.Takenchlorophyll-aconcentrationanddissolvedoxygenconcentrationastherepresentativevariablesathree-dimensionalcoupledhydro-dynamic-waterqualitynumericalmodelwasbuilt.Bycombiningcalculationandpredictionofthehydrologicalandmeteorologicalscenariosovertheensuing3daysthedynamicdistributionsofalgaeconcentrationanddissolvedoxygenconcentrationscenariosinLakeTaihuweresimulated.BlackBloomprobabilitieswerethenpredictedbyaforecastempiricalmodelthatincludedtheweightofalgalbiomassdissolvedoxygenconcentrationwindvelocityandweathercondition.Iftheprobabilitieswerelargerthan50%theareaofblackbloomshouldbecalculated.Themodelwasappliedtopredicttheoccurrencesoftheblackbloomofthenext3daysinLakeTaihufromApriltoSeptemberin2013and2014.Independentevaluationsfromboatsurveydatashowedthattheaccuracyofthesebloomforecastswasmorethan80%.KeywordsAlgae-inducedblackbloomnumericalmodelshort-termforecastshallowlakeLakeTaihu20、.“”、、“”1.1990s、2.20092014、11、4、5、10、631~6d17km2*41471401、2015DFG91980、2012ZX07101-01041230744.2015-03-182016-01-21.1980~E-mailliwei@niglas.ac.cn.702J.LakeSci.20162843-5..6-111-24-512-17、、18-24.、、、..Chl.aDO3d3dChl.aDO3d、.201320144103d.1.1-2、、、5241.YSI6600-V2YellowSpringInstrumentsUSAChl.a、DO、DO、、、.10~30cm1L、《》25.1Fig.1ThemonitoringsitesanddivisionofmainforecastingregionsofblackbloominLakeTaihu———7032Fig.2UnstructuredmeshesforLakeTaihu.63532.≈300m≈1000m.11246353Chl.a、DO.2Chl.aDO、、、、、3dChl.aDO3d.2.1σζt+Dux+Dvy+wσ=01uDt+u2Dx+uvDy+uwσ-fvD=-gDζx-gDρ0xD∫0σρdσ'()+σρDx[]+1DσKmuσ()+x2AmDux[]+yAmDuy+vx()[]2vDt+uvDx+v2Dy+vwσ+fuD=-gDζy-gDρ0yD∫0σρdσ'()+σρDy[]+1DσKmvσ()+xAmDuy+vx()[]+y2AmDvy[]3u、v、wx、y、σm/sζmD=h+ζmρkg/m3gm/s2fAmKm..σ.N-S26.、27-28Roe29.、.2.2DCt+DuCx+DvCy+ωCσ=xAHDCx()+yAHDCy()+σKHDCσ()+SK4704J.LakeSci.2016284C.CaSK、.CSK、、、.30-32..20092011、、3d80%11.2.33dVx、VyVx、Vyx、ym/shttp∥.weather.com.cn/html/weather/101190201.shtml.2.43dChl.aDO、.≤2.6m/s、25℃5~7dDO≤2.0mg/L、33-34.、DO、F=f1N1t·f2V·f3R·f4N2t541.f1N1ttf2Vf3Rf4N2ttDO..1Chl.a、DO、、Tab.1TheprobabilityvaluesofblackbloomscausedbyChl.aconcentrationDOconcentrationwindspeedandrainfallChl.a/μg/LfN1t/m/sfVfRDO/mg/LfN2t>60.01.01~20.3~3.31.0、1.01.01.050.00.933.4~5.40.9、0.92.00.840.00.845.5~7.90.8、0.84.00.620.00.658.0~10.70.70.76.00.410.00.45>10.80.5、08.002.52km412342km25671.550%50%.3201320144103dChl.aDO7.382.———7053Fig.3SemiweeklymonitoringandforecastforthecyanobacteriaandblackbloominLakeTaihu2014612613156124.613、14152、22.3dChl.aDO3.42014612Chl.aDOFig.4DistributionofChl.aandDOconcentrationsinLakeTaihuon12June2014613152、、1fV=1.0fRmax=1.0iChl.ai=25.2μg/LDOi=1.5mg/LfN1t=0.6fN2t=1.05iF=f1N1t·f2V·f3R·f4N2t=0.6.706J.LakeSci.201628463535560%3d.50%5~100.3×0.3/2=0.045km23d0.2~0.5km2.61315360%0.2~0.5km2.6130.4km2.52014613Fig.5ProbabilityofoccurrenceandtheforcastingareaofblackbloominLakeTaihuon13June201420132014822780%.220132014Tab.2TheevaluationoftheblackbloomsforecastinLakeTaihuduring2013and201420132014/d/d/%/d/d/%2/%9595100967578.189.1959296.8966365.681.2959397.9968184.491.2959296.8967881.389.1847589.310710710094.7847589.310710710094.7877383.91099385.384.6———7074、、、.、、.Chl.aDO、.、、、、、、、、DO、Chl.a、、、pH.、.53d3dChl.aDOChl.aDO3d.20132014、73d780%.61LuGuihuaMaQian.AnalysisonthecausesofformingblackwaterclusterinTaihuLake.AdvancesinWaterScience2009203438-442inChinesewithEnglishabstract..“”.2009203438-442.2LuGuihuaMaQian.Monitoringandanalysis“BlackWaterAggregation”inLakeTaihu2009.JLakeSci2010224481-487inChinesewithEnglishabstract.DOI10.18307/2010.0402..2009“”.2010224481-487.3YangMYuJLiZetal.TaihuLakenottoblameforWuxi’swoes.Science20083195860158.4NanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnologyChineseAcademyofSciences.Onthecauseofcyanophytabloomandpollu-tioninwaterintakeareaandemergencymeasuresinMeiliangBayLakeTaihuin2007.JLakeSci2007194357-358inChinesewithEnglishabstract.DOI10.18307/2007.0401..2007.2007194357-358.5ChenHesheng.BlackwateraggregationinYixinginshorewaterareaofLakeTaihu.AdvancesinScienceandTechnologyofWaterResources201131433-37inChinesewithEnglishabstract..“”.201131433-37.6SarkarRChattopadhayayJ.Occurrenceofplanktonicbloomsunderenvironmentalfluctuationsanditspossiblecontrolmechanism-mathematicalmodelsandexperimentalobservations.JournalofTheoreticalBiology2003224501-516.7HuWJrgensenSZhangF.Avertical-compressedthreedimensionalecologicalmodelinLakeTaihuChina.EcologicalModelling2006190367-398.8KongFanxiangMaRuhongGaoJunfengetal.Thetheoryandpracticeofpreventionforecastandwarningoncyanobac-teriabloominLakeTaihu.JLakeSci2009213314-328inChinesewithEnglishabstract.DO

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