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24420094ADVANCESINEARTHSCIENCEVol.24No.4Apr.,2009:100128166(2009)0420436208,,(/,730000):,:2,21,2;205045010-655010-6CO2e(),;,,,:;;;;:X16;X51:A20,,CO2,CO2,,,,,,3:;,;,[1],,11.1(IPCC)IPCC,:2009202215;:2009202220.3:CO2(:KZCX22YW2Q1210);(:40801232).:(19812),,,,.E2mail:zengjj@llas.ac.cn,1015,212000[2],2020,199010%40%,;2050,199040%95%,1.2(OECD)200835,(OECD)OECD2030(OECDEn2vironmentalOutlookto2030),CO2,,23[3]OECD2030:;45010-6CO2e,,50:200825/tCO2e,2050200021%,CO248110-6,1.41.9;45010-6CO2e,2050200039%,1.31.81.3(EU)2007389,,,:2020199020%;2020199030%2050199060%80%[4]200712,,,2020199025%40%,,,,,2020199025%40%205050%1.4(UNDP)20071127,(UN2DP)2007/2008(HumanDevel2opmentReports2007/2008),,[5],2012,,,:2;CO245010-6;1990,,2020,205050%,21;,,202020%30%,205080%;,2020,205020%22.12008107,(Com2mitteeonClimateChange,CCC),2(),2050199080%[6]20081126,(ClimateChangeBill),:2020,CO2199026%;2050,199060%[7,8]2.22005,,,202040%(30%)20078,,7344:[5]2.320013,,,2002,(GlobalClimateChangeInitiative,GCCI),,10(20022012)18%[9],[10],10()[11]2.420087,(CarbonPollutionReductionSchemeGreenPaper),2050200060%[12]2.52004722,(ClimatePlan2004),3%,205019901/4[13]2.620085,(UNFCCC)(SubmissiononSectoralApproach),,,[14]20086,205060%80%,[15]2.720074,,2020200620%,2050200660%70%[15]2.82008630,(NationalActionPlanonClimateChange,NAPCC)23%33%,,201210000MW,[16],2.92007,(BrazilsContributiontoPreventClimateChangeWhitePaper)[15],2002(ProgramforIncentiveofAlternativeElectricEnergySources),202210%;(NationalEthanolProgram),40%33.1(WWF)WWF2008G8,2012,,2050,199080%[17]200810,WWF:(ClimateChange:Faster,Stronger,Sooner),205080%,,,WWF2050[18]3.2(CAN)200312,(ClimateActionNetwork)(AViableGlobalFrameworkforPreventingDan2gerousClimateChange),2012,21,I(I)199080%,,2100[19]3::,I;():,83424,,;:,3.3(EcoEquity)(SEI)200711,(EcoEquity)(StockholmEnvironmentInstitute,SEI):(TheRighttoDevelopmentinaClimateConstrainedWorld:TheGreenhouseDevelopmentRightsFramework)(GreenhouseDevelopmentRights,GDRs)GDRs,2,[20]2,2015,6%,2050,199080%,CO242510-6(CO2e47010-6)3.4(TheClimateGroup)2008627,(TheClimateGroup):(BreakingtheClimateDeadlock:AGlobalDealforOurLow2CarbonFuture)[21],2,2350010-6,45010-6CO2e,2020,20501990,2020,,1990400tCO2e,550tCO2e,2030600tCO2e,2050850tCO2e1990,2050200tCO2e,:2020,;2030,350tCO2e;2050,200tCO2e,20057tCO2e10tCO2e22tCO2e2tCO2e,6tCO2e90,,20502tCO2e,,,,20102020,3.5BASIC20068,BASIC,(TheSaoPauloProposalforanAgreementonFutureClimatePolicy)[22,23],,:2100,2;2050,CO245010-655010-6;2020,I199015%;,;,I3:(tCO2e/a);(tCO2e/GDP);I,(20132018),,II,,9344:BASIC:,4,BASIC2005,,,(IDS),,(WRI)(Ecofys),.,,I,,,I200511(CER),GDP,44.1Stern200610,NicholasStern:(SternRreview:theEconomicsofClimateChange),[24]45010-655010-6CO2e,55010-6CO2e,1020,1%3%,[25]Stern,,,2050199060%80%2008430,NicholasStern(KeyElementsofaGlobalDealonClimateChange),50010-6CO2e,2050,199050%,205020GtCO2e,10GtCO2e20502tCO2e,2020199020%40%,205080%[26]4.2Garnaut2008930,RossGarnaut(GarnautClimateChangeReview),55010-6CO2e2013,()[15],55010-6CO2e:2000,205013%76%,50%;2012,205034%77%5%(contractionandconvergence),,20132050,55010-6CO2e:2000,205041%79%5%;2012,205050%78%30%4.3WarwickJMcKibbinPeterJWilcoxen20086,WarwickJMcKib2binPeterJWilcoxen(BuildingonKyoto:towardsaRealisticClimateChangeAgreement),(BAU),20132040[27,29]BAU,,04424,,,BAU,,,;,,204020134.4BentS«rensen20087,BentS«rensen,21001.01.52.02.54,2000,[28,29]1.5(2.1,CO245010-6,CO2e50010-6),,,21,5,(1):(1),2,21,2(2),2050CO245010-655010-6CO2e,(3),,;,(UNDP),;Baer[20],,1Table1ThesummaryofGHGemissionreductionscenarioprogramsofinternationalorganizationsandmajorcountries(1990)(:%)(2020)(2050)()(:)CO2(:10-6CO2e)IPCCI10%40%I40%95%2550OECD23450EU20%30%()60%80%2UNDP;20%30%;50%(21);80%;20%245026%60%;80%()240%60%(2000)75%CO2e(2030,350tCO2e;)2050,200tCO2e24501444:;,(References):[1]ZhangZhiqiang,QuJiansheng,ZengJingjing.Aquantitativecom2parisonandanalysisontheassessmentindicatorsofgreenhousega2sesemission[J].JournalofGeographicalSciences,2008,63(7):6932702.[,,.[J].,2008,63(7):6932702.][2]IPCC.2007:[R/OL].http:[3]OECD.EnvironmentalOutlookto2030[R/OL].http:oberon.sourceoecd.org/,2008203.[4]CounciloftheEuropeanUnion.BrusselsEuropeanCouncilpresi2dencyconclusions[R/OL].http:register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/07/st07/st072242re01.en07.pdf,2007.[5]UNDP.2007/2008[R/OL].http:[6]TheCommitteeonClimateChange.GovernmentadvisedtoreduceGreenhousegasemissionsbyatleast80%in2050[EB/OL].ht2tp:[7]HMGovernment.DraftClimateChangeBill[R/OL].http:[8]DepartmentofEnvironment,Food,andRuralAffairs.ClimateChangeAct2008[R/OL].http:[9]USDepartmentofState.GlobalClimateChangeInitiative[R/OL].http:[10]QuJiansheng,SunChengquan.Politicalcontentsoftheglobalchangestudies:TakingthepoliciesonclimateofUSasanexam2ple[J