合肥城市生活垃圾产量预测研究

:1002-980X(2007)02-0096-03,,,(,230022):(19942005),,,20062015,,2015102161t,1142kg:;;;:F29:A:20061112:(050450304);:(1969),,,,1,,,,,11219801990,19801106kg,19901123kg1290,111kg,1133kg,1133kg,1141kg110kg1,,110kg,,,1(:kg)1980110901790195016101691136019519901130019001910189019511360185198011711102111311981165112319901140018311031165114411062(:kg)111113311331141110221119942005,,(19942005),,0156kg319942005(::)19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200518.6219.7120.4821.9023.0026.3228.9531.4737.2339.4240.9050.370.430.440.480.460.470.520.550.590.660.680.660.756926220072TechnologyEconomicsVol.26,No.2Feb.,2007212:;,1;,2;3;4,,,213,34,,:019694,019855,019850,0199904(19942005,n=12),4::/:2/::::21994117115331091713118260102381781136136199512210240941116167158781444919514151431996125129433712172111599610654134159111819971291574096121324819911412953107159317119981321954291131127014712310057105174116519991361914552131329414513414162132182019020001431045040141632417314812772101208813820011461815600151336314416416082121224611920021531545721161141218118417787184247119920031601176234161848419620714399185269018620041681966998171058917023917711812428721322005184191739818148531572871101361803402134:(19952006)3,34,1994200519942005(Y),(X1),(X2),(X3)(X4)OLS,:Y=-01866882+01007135X1-01030219X2+01033070X3+01014482X4(1)(-01185954)(01493864)(-01335579)(01216822)(11587427)R2=01998501F=6651952,X1X3X4,01,,X2X2,OLS,:Y=01235897+01004749X1+01033783X3+01012127X4(2)(01075662)(01400482)(01234929)(21206448)R2=01975047F=14412758,,:1,47149;791,337183;1,1211274(2),()5,20062015,5,,,20062015,,,,5,20062015,6%7%,,1117kg2015102161t,1142kg520062015::::2::2006186120985187151185377919901825518820071871511138168168155419915801916212620081881821315118187109466517311006913820091901141519103207167518316311117713220101911471754148230152574411011238610120111921812026143255187578413411268816420121941162340152284102582418111299115720131951522703131315126586516611339418520141961893122132349194590617911379815120151981273606127388143594811311421021611,.[J].,2003(3):169171.2.[J].,1994(4):1822.3,.[J].,2000(8):104106.4,.[J].,2001(23):4244.5.().200604.6BucletN,GodardO.MunicipalwastemanagementinEurope:acomparativestudyinbuildingregimes[M].Boston:KluwerA2cademicPubblishers,2000.ResearchonPredictionofMunicipalSolidWasteOutputinHefeiWANGHao,WUKe,SIWu2fei,YUZhi2min(HefeiUniversity,Hefei230022,China)Abstract:ThroughanalyzestheHefeicitylifetrashoutput(1994-2005)aswellastheinfluencetrashoutputmaincorrelationfactor,usedthemul2tipleregressionanalysismethodtoestablishtrashrateofpredictionmodel.Theanalysisresultindicatedthat,GDP,thelifeexpensedisbursementandthehousinguseableareaareaffectstrashoutputtheprimaryfactor,alsoallisthecorrelationaldependence.Usedthismodel2006in2015tolivetrashoutputtoHefeitocarryontheforecast.TheresultshowedinthefuturetenyearstheHefeilifetrashoutputwillcontinueslowlytogrow,estimat2edin2015trashoutputachieved102.61tenthousandt,theaverageperpersondailyoutputwillbe1.42kg.Keywords:MSW;wasteoutput;regressionanalysis;prediction89262