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kpmgChinaautomotiveandChinaautomotiveandcomponentpartsmarketcomponentpartsmarketAugust2003KPMGTransactionServicesKPMGTransactionServices©2003KPMG,theHongKongmemberfirmofKPMGInternational,aSwissnonoperatingassociation.Allrightsreserved.PrintedinHongKongABCDKPMGTransactionServicesKPMGTransactionServices11PrefacePrefaceChinaAutomotiveandComponentPartsMarkethasbeenwrittenatatimeofsignificantlyenhancedinterestregardingChinaonthepartoftheglobalautoindustry.Chinaisemergingasapricecompetitivecenterofproductionand,moreimportantly,asamajormarketplaceinitsownright.Thedegreeandspeedoftransformationinthissectorhavebeenstaggering.Todaytheautomotivesectorisgrowingandchangingfromdaytoday,andforcompaniesalreadyinvestinginChinaaswellasthosewhoarenotyetonthegroundinChina,itcanbedifficulttoobtaintheinformationandinsightsthatexecutivesneed.Torespondtosuchneeds,KPMGhasproducedthisreport,toprovideanindependentanalysisoftheautomotiveandcomponentpartsmarkettodayandtoprovideourcommentaryonkeyissuesfacingthesectorgoingforward.Inproducingthisreportwehavedrawnonanumberofpublicsourcesofinformation,spokenwidelytoindustryparticipants(bothlocalandforeign)involvedintheautomotivesectorinChina,andconductedastrawpollofleadingglobalautomotivemanufacturersregardingtheirareasofconcern.Thepicturethatemergesisoneofclearopportunitiesfornimblecompanies,particularlyinthecomponentssectorwhereweexpecttoseeconsolidation.Wehavealsoidentifiedpotentialthreatsthatshouldbecarefullyassessed,includingover-capacity,downwardpricingpressureandpossiblenewgovernmentpolicies.Pleasecontactusifyouwishtodiscussthereportorobtainadditionalcopies;contactinformationcanbefoundattheendofthereport.PaulBroughHeadofFinancialAdvisoryServices,ChinaKPMGnTheinformationinthisreportisofageneralnatureandisnotintendedtoaddressthecircumstancesofanyparticularindividualorentity.Althoughweendeavourtoprovideaccurateandtimelyinformation,therecanbenoguaranteethatsuchinformationisaccurateasofthedateitisreceivedorthatitwillcontinuetobeaccurateinthefuture.Nooneshouldactonsuchinformationwithoutappropriateprofessionaladviceafterathoroughexaminationoftheparticularsituation.nKPMGdoesnotacceptresponsibilitytoanypartythatreliesoninformationorviewsexpressedinthisreport;companiesshouldseekprofessionaladviceandconductathoroughassessmentoftheparticularsituationpriortomakinganybusinessdecision.nOurreportisbasedoninformationavailabletousattheendofAugust,2003.OurinformationandanalysisisbasedonresearchandinterviewsconductedinJulyandAugust,2003.ABCDKPMGTransactionServicesKPMGTransactionServices22ContentsContentsnMarketoverviewnManufacturermarketnComponentpartsmarketnIssuesfacingforeignplayersABCDKPMGTransactionServicesKPMGTransactionServices33Drivenbystrongdemandforsedans,theChinesevehiclemarketiDrivenbystrongdemandforsedans,theChinesevehiclemarketisexpectedtotop4millionsexpectedtotop4millionunitsin2003unitsin2003IndustrygrowthIndustrygrowthnTotalvehiclesales(a)grewfrom1.43millionunitsin1995to3.26millionunitsin2002;acompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of12.5percent;KPMGestimatesthevehiclemarketwillgrowby26percentin2003nAnnualsalesareexpectedtoreach7.0millionunitsin2010and8.9millionunitsin2015,aCAGRof7.9percentfrom2002to2015nSedanssalesgrewby55percentyear-on-yearbetween2001and2002andhavebeenforecasttogrowbyover60percentin2003-salesbetweenJanuaryandJuly2003were0.99millionunits,77percenthigheryear-on-yearagainstthesameperiodin2002-sedansalesareontracktoreach1.8millionin2003nChinaproductiongrewfromrepresenting2.8percentofglobalproductionin1996to4.1percentin2001(1);rankedthe7thlargestmarketforvehiclesalesgloballyin2001,Chinaisexpectedtobethe3rdlargestby2010(2)MarketshareMarketsharenTheindustrycanbebroadlydividedintothreevehicleareas:buses,trucksandsedans(b)nBusesandtruckshavetraditionallyaccountedforthelargestportionofthemarket,92percentin1990(3),butsedansnowaccountforroughly40percentofthemarket(3)andwillaccountforover60percentofthemarketin2015nCommentatorsexpectthistrendtocontinueasprivateownershipgrows;privateownersnowpurchasealmosthalfofallvehiclesandareexpectedtobethekeydriverforgrowthintheChinavehicleindustry(3)(4)SedanswillcontinuetobethefastestgrowingsegmentoftheveSedanswillcontinuetobethefastestgrowingsegmentofthevehiclehicleindustryindustryNotes:(a)Theautomotiveindustryforthepurposeofthisreportincludesbuses,trucksandsedans,andexcludesothervehicles,suchasmotorcycles(b)Theterm'sedan'includesbothsmallandmediumsizedpassengercarsSources:(1)ING“Gearbox:China”Jan2003(2)McKinsey&CoChina’sAutomotiveMarket2001(3)CreditSuisseFirstBostonChinaAutoSectorJan2003(4)MorganStanleyChinaAutomobilesMarch2003AnnualsalesofvehiclesbytypeAnnualsalesofvehiclesbytype19951995--20152015Sources:CreditSuisseFirstBostonChinaAutoSectorJan2003;People’sDaily“Autosalestohit4millionunitsin2003”Jan20003;China's10th5YearPlan;KPMGanalysisAnnualrevenueofAnnualrevenueofvehiclevehiclesbytypesbytype19951995--20020011Note:ExcludesfirmswithlessthanUSD600,000revenueSource:ChinaMarketsYearbook,20034.65.66.26.68.510.813.07.17.79.28.49.69.711.41.11.01.11.31.62.8