宏观经济学MBA教程2

二、宏观经济计量与核算MEASURINGANATION’SINCOMETheCircularFlowHouseholdsGovernmentFirmsMarketsforFactorofProductionFinancialMarketsMarketsforGoodsandServicesForeignCountryFirmRevenueIncomeFactorPaymentsPrivateSavingTaxesGovernmentDeficitConsumptionGovernmentPurchasesInvestmentImportExportInternationalCapitalFlowRichardStone(理查德·斯通)•1984年获诺贝尔经济学奖。•二战期间，完成《战争财源分析及1938和1940国民收入和支出估计》白皮书。时任英国财政部顾问的凯恩斯感动地说：“我们在一个通过统计的快乐时代中”。•1945年任剑桥大学新成立的应用经济学系的第一任主任。•1950年，受联合国统计委员会委托，出版《国民帐户体系》（SNA），1968年修订后正式出版。•1975年出版《社会和人口统计系统》（SSDS,Towardsasystemofsocialanddemographicstatistics）。WassilyLeontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)•1973年获诺贝尔经济学奖。•1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中国铁道部顾问，1931年进入美国国民经济研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大学经济学教授。•1941年出版《美国经济结构：1919-1929》，第一次用投入产出法进行经济结构分析。1966年出版《投入产出经济学》。●国民收入帐户●投入产出表●资金循环表●国际收支表●国民资产负债表国民帐户体系ASYSTEMOFNATIONALACCOUNTS•Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)isameasureoftheincomeandexpendituresofaneconomy.•Itisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagiventimeperiod.GrossDomesticProductImportantFeaturesofGDP•Outputisvaluedatmarketprices.•Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods,notintermediategoods(thevalueiscountedonlyonce).•Itincludesbothtangiblegoods(food,clothing,cars)andintangibleservices(haircuts,housecleaning,doctorvisits).ImportantFeaturesofGDP•Itincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced,nottransactionsinvolvinggoodsproducedinthepast.•Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry.ImportantFeaturesofGDP•Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).WhatIsCountedinGDP?•GDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegallyinmarkets.WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?•GDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace.•Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly,suchasillegaldrugs.GrossNationalProduct•Grossnationalproduct(GNP)isthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivenperiodoftimebyanation’spermanentresidents,regardlessofwheretheyare.ThreeOtherMeasuresofIncome•NetNationalProduct(NNP)•PersonalIncome•DisposablePersonalIncomeNetNationalProduct(NNP)•Thetotalincomeoftheresidentsofanationaftersubtractinglossesfromdepreciation.PersonalIncome•Theincomethathouseholdsandnoncorporatebusinessesreceive.DisposablePersonalIncome•Theincomethathouseholdandnoncorporatebusinesseshaveleftaftersatisfyingtheirobligationstothegovernment.ITEMDATAGrossnationalproductImplicitpricedeflatorPersonalconsumptionexpenditureGrossprivatedomesticinvestmentFixedinvestmentChangeinbusinessinventoriesNetexportsGovernmentpurchasesFinalsales(GNPminusinventorychange)GrossNationalProductFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesITEMITEMGrossnationalproductPlus:GovernmenttransferpaymentstopersonsLess:CapitalconsumptionallowancesPersonalinterestincomeEquals:NetnationalproductPersonaldividendincomePlus:SubsidiesBusinesstransfersLess:IndirectbusinesstaxandnontaxliabilityEquals:PersonalincomeEquals:NationalincomeLess:PersonaltaxandnontaxpaymentsLess:corporateprofitsEquals:disposablepersonalincomeNetinterestLess:PersonaloutlaysContributionsforsocialinsuranceEquals:PersonalsavingGNP—NationalandPerCapitaIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesTYPEOFINCOMEDATANationalincomeCompensationofemployeesWagesandsalariesSupplementstowages,salariesProprietors’incomeRentalincomeofpersonsCorporateprofitsProfitsbeforetaxInventoryvaluationadjustmentCapitalconsumptionadjustmentNetinterestNationalIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesTheFourComponentsofGDP•GDP(Y)isthesumofthefollowing:äConsumption(C)äInvestment(I)äGovernmentPurchases(G)äNetExports(NX)Y=C+I+G+NXTheFourComponentsofGDP•Consumption(C):äThespendingbyhouseholdsongoodsandservices,withtheexceptionofpurchasesofnewhousing.•Investment(I):äThespendingoncapitalequipment,inventories,andstructures,includingnewhousing.TheFourComponentsofGDP•GovernmentPurchases(G):äThespendingongoodsandservicesbylocal,state,andfederalgovernments.äDoesnotincludetransferpaymentsbecausetheyarenotmadeinexchangeforcurrentlyproducedgoodsorservices.•NetExports(NX):äExportsminusimports.BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption69%Investment15%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%Consumption68%GovernmentPurchases19%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Investment15%NetExports-1%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%Investment15%GovernmentPurchases19%RealversusNominalGDP•NominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices.•RealGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices.RealversusNominalGDP•AnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator.价格指数(PriceIndex)•拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指数：•帕斯卡(Pascke)指数：nititinititiPQPQPL11111nititinititiPQPQPP111GDPDeflator•TheGDPdeflatormeasuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear.•IttellsustheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced.GDPDeflator•TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:GDPDeflatorGDPdeflator=NominalGDPRealGDP100•TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:ConvertingNominalGDPt